Iran’s supreme leader has quietly set in motion a far-reaching contingency plan to safeguard the regime’s leadership structure in the event he or other senior figures are assassinated in possible American or Israeli strikes, according to a report published Sunday by The New York Times. The report also described how Ayatollah Ali Khamenei moved longtime confidant Ali Larijani into a dominant leadership position to steer the country through mounting security and diplomatic turmoil.
The developments come as Washington and Tehran have resumed indirect negotiations in Geneva, facilitated by Oman, aimed at reviving a nuclear agreement. The diplomatic effort follows a major US military buildup in the region, including the deployment of two aircraft carriers, additional fighter aircraft and significant weapons systems, reinforcing American warnings to Iran.
Separately on Sunday, a senior US official told Axios that the United States is prepared to dispatch negotiators to Geneva this Friday — provided Iran submits a revised nuclear proposal within the next 48 hours.
According to officials cited in the report, the upcoming window for talks may represent the final opportunity to resolve the crisis diplomatically before the US proceeds with a large-scale military strike.
The New York Times reported that during a period of sweeping nationwide unrest last month, coupled with escalating American threats, Khamenei appointed Larijani — a former commander in the Revolutionary Guards and seasoned political figure — to oversee core state functions. The move effectively shifted authority away from President Masoud Pezeshkian and consolidated operational control in Larijani’s hands.
Drawing on interviews with senior Iranian officials, Revolutionary Guards members and former diplomats, the report said Larijani has since supervised the regime’s harsh suppression of protests, handled delicate nuclear negotiations with Washington, and coordinated strategy with partners including Russia, Qatar and Oman.
In addition, Larijani has reportedly been directing wartime contingency planning as Tehran prepares for potential US military action. Iranian leadership is said to be operating under the belief that American strikes are both imminent and unavoidable. Military forces have accordingly been placed on maximum alert.
Iran has reportedly repositioned missile systems near the Iraqi frontier — within striking range of Israel — and along the Persian Gulf, where US bases are located. The country has also conducted repeated missile exercises and drills in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling preparations for possible hostilities.
Beyond external defense, Iranian authorities have also crafted plans to maintain domestic control should conflict erupt.
Officials told the newspaper that, in the event of war, police special units, intelligence personnel and plainclothes Basij militia forces would be deployed throughout major cities. Their mission would include erecting checkpoints, suppressing demonstrations and identifying individuals suspected of cooperating with foreign governments.
Despite those measures, opposition activity appears to be continuing. Iran International reported Sunday that university students across the country have launched a new round of anti-regime demonstrations, honoring those killed during earlier protests and voicing opposition to the Islamic Republic.
According to the outlet, rallies were held at the University of Tehran, Sharif University of Technology, Shahid Beheshti University, Ferdowsi University, Khajeh Nasir University and the University of Art.
Iran International, which operates outside the country and has been designated a “terrorist” organization by Tehran, circulated footage on social media showing students raising a flag at Sharif University, along with clips from additional campus protests.
An AFP-verified video from what appeared to be the same demonstration at Sharif University showed a large crowd gathered around students waving the flag, chanting “long live the shah” and other slogans critical of the government.
Reports indicated that members of the Basij paramilitary organization entered some campuses in attempts to identify protest participants.
At the same time, pro-government groups organized counter-rallies as students assembled Saturday at the beginning of the new academic term. The gatherings marked the 40th day since fatalities recorded during protests on January 8 and 9, following Shiite mourning customs.
Much of Khamenei’s restructuring is said to stem from lessons learned during the 12-day conflict with Israel in June, when Israeli airstrikes eliminated much of Iran’s senior military leadership in the early stages of fighting. There is also concern within Tehran that the United States could attempt to target Khamenei personally.
In response, Khamenei has implemented layered succession frameworks designed to preserve command continuity. The report said he established four levels of replacements for each senior military and governmental role that falls under his authority.
He also instructed officials across the leadership hierarchy to designate up to four successors of their own, according to the newspaper.
Responsibilities have additionally been delegated to a tight circle of trusted figures capable of making decisions if Khamenei becomes unreachable or is killed. Chief among them is Larijani.
Other senior officials referenced in the report include Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, a top military adviser and former Revolutionary Guards commander; Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, another former Guards commander who now serves as parliament speaker; and Khamenei’s chief of staff, cleric Ali Asghar Hejazi.
The newspaper said Ghalibaf has effectively been assigned to act as Khamenei’s deputy in commanding the armed forces during wartime.
While in concealment during the June war with Israel, Khamenei reportedly identified three individuals as possible successors to the role of supreme leader, though their names were not disclosed publicly.
Despite Larijani’s expanding authority, the report emphasized that he would not be considered a candidate for supreme leader because he is not a senior Shiite cleric.
Even so, analysts told the newspaper that Khamenei places complete confidence in Larijani’s ability to manage the crisis and potentially guide the country if the supreme leader were killed.
“The supreme leader fully trusts Larijani. He believes Larijani is the man for this sensitive juncture because of his political track record, sharp mind and knowledge,” Nasser Imani said. “He relies on him for reports on the situation and pragmatic advice. Larijani’s role will be very pronounced during war.”
The report described Larijani’s growing authority as coming at the expense of President Pezeshkian, noting that the president had to formally request Larijani’s approval to ease internet restrictions and to authorize Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to contact President Donald Trump’s chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff.
Witkoff and fellow US envoy Jared Kushner have reportedly been awaiting a comprehensive proposal from Tehran following their most recent discussions with Araghchi last Tuesday.
A senior US official told Axios that the two American negotiators expect to be in Geneva on February 27 if Iran submits its proposal earlier in the week.
“If Iran gives a draft proposal, the US is ready to meet in Geneva on Friday in order to start detailed negotiations to see if we can get a nuclear deal,” the official said.
The official added that both sides could explore the possibility of an interim arrangement while negotiating a broader agreement.
Nevertheless, officials cautioned that this diplomatic effort may represent the final opportunity to avert military action.
{Matzav.com}
