Senior Israeli legal authorities issued a sharp warning on Thursday night, saying the newest version of the conscription bill—presented by Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chair Boaz Bismuth—has little chance of surviving a High Court challenge. Their view is straightforward: the proposal doesn’t supply the IDF with the manpower it desperately needs, and it falls far short of true fairness under the law.
They referenced pointed remarks from High Court justices earlier this month—led by Deputy Chief Justice Noam Sohlberg—during the hearing on the exemption system. People involved in the behind-the-scenes talks between the defense establishment, legal advisers, and the Finance Ministry said the latest outline “institutionalizes draft evasion and entrenches the ongoing non-enlistment of chareidi men.” One participant noted that the plan restores funding for yeshivas immediately but does not bring even one additional soldier into uniform.
These officials stressed that the proposal doesn’t meet the country’s security needs or economic reality, leaving the IDF with almost no meaningful enforcement tools. Since the sanctions are aimed at institutions—not at individuals who avoid service—they believe its impact will be negligible. “A conscription law without personal sanctions is a toothless law,” one senior official said. “Its practical purpose seems to be buying time for the coalition without increasing enlistment.” The complaint from the professional echelon is that instead of dealing with draft avoidance, the government is placing the pressure—both financial and logistical—on the army and on the tzibbur.
The draft bill broadens the definition of a chareidi individual, classifying anyone who learned in chareidi schools for two years between ages 14 and 18 as eligible for national civilian service, such as roles in auxiliary units under the Prime Minister’s Office. Under this definition, targets would no longer apply solely to full-time yeshiva bochurim but to “graduates of chareidi education” more broadly.
Defense officials told committee members that although the war in Gaza has concluded, reserve duty demands are expected to rise significantly in 2026, with battalions projected to serve around 110 reserve days per year—far above the 2025 goal of 70 days. The cost of reserve duty in 2025 alone is expected to reach 200 billion shekels. They added that the army has been expanding regular-service units over the last two years to lighten the load on reservists and believes mandatory service must be extended beyond the current 30 months.
Finance Ministry representatives offered equally sobering numbers, projecting that the war’s economic impact by the end of 2025 will total around 130 billion shekels, plus another 70 billion shekels in reserve-duty expenses.
Military officials said that even after the withdrawal from Gaza, the IDF will still need to boost defenses for both standing and reserve troops guarding the south, particularly the yishuvim near the Gaza border. Significant forces remain stationed along Lebanon and Syria, and the army has increased its activities in the West Bank to prevent Hamas from reestablishing itself.
The political fate of the bill is no less fraught. United Torah Judaism leader Yitzchok Goldknopf issued a cautious message, saying the Moetzes Gedolei Hatorah instructed the party to support only a proposal that fully protects Torah learning and includes no sanctions whatsoever. He said the matter will now be brought to senior gedolim for guidance.
Within the coalition, officials quietly admitted that Goldknopf holds the decisive card. Public opposition is intense, and internal tensions inside Likud are growing. Without UTJ’s backing, they said, additional lawmakers may break ranks, making it nearly impossible to reach a majority.
Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has not spoken publicly, but those close to him say he favors the bill and sees it as a chance to “transform the IDF.” They claim the plan could raise chareidi enlistment to about 50 percent within five years, excluding Chassidic groups, the Peleg Yerushalmi, and Neturei Karta. They also insisted the sanctions are “harsh,” explaining that falling below 70 percent of recruitment goals would lead to a total cutoff of state funding for yeshivas. “This is an excellent law and it will pass,” they said.
Goldknopf, despite past threats to dissolve the Knesset over this issue and his opposition to any form of sanctions, is still viewed as weighing his options. Chareidi insiders said Thursday night that tensions may ease now that the bill has been published, and that pressure from leading Litvishe gedolim—who reportedly support the outline—may push him to abstain instead of vote against it.
Inside Likud, resistance is already taking shape. Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel announced she will vote no on the bill, saying she has backing from a group of other lawmakers. MK Moshe Saada criticized the proposal for offering nothing to combat soldiers, pointing out that it sets no targets for combat enlistment at all. He said the law should clearly reward those who serve, declaring, “You served, you receive; you didn’t serve, you don’t.”
Coalition officials cautioned that if the process begins with UTJ withholding even two votes, the bill may never reach the Knesset floor because it would start without a viable majority.
{Matzav.com}
