ELECTION NIGHT DRAMA: Channel 14 Projects Netanyahu Majority as Lieberman Falls Below Threshold, While Rival Exit Polls Show Political Deadlock
Israel’s election night took a dramatic turn late Tuesday as Channel 14 released an updated exit poll projecting a 62-seat majority for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc, potentially allowing him to form a new government without relying on opposition parties. The dramatic change came as Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu fell below the electoral threshold in the channel’s revised projection, removing the party from the Knesset and dramatically altering the distribution of seats.
The updated figures, prepared by pollster Shlomo Filber, represented a significant departure from the results published by Israel’s other major television networks, which continued to show Netanyahu and his opponents falling short of the 61 seats needed to control the 120-member Knesset.
The sharp discrepancies created an extraordinary situation in which one major television network projected a clear Netanyahu majority while several others indicated that neither political camp could assemble a governing coalition on its own. The competing projections left the country’s political future uncertain as the counting of actual ballots got underway.
Channel 14’s revised survey awarded Netanyahu’s Likud party 31 seats, making it the largest faction in the next Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to win 20 seats, followed by Naftali Bennett’s Yachad party with 11 seats.
The Joint Arab List was projected to receive 11 seats, while Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, climbed to 10 seats. The Democrats, headed by Yair Golan, received nine seats, while Religious Zionism, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit and Ra’am were each projected to receive seven seats.
Under that distribution, Netanyahu’s bloc would consist of Likud’s 31 seats, Shas’s 10, United Torah Judaism’s seven, Religious Zionism’s seven and Otzma Yehudit’s seven, producing a combined 62-seat majority.
The non-Arab opposition parties would hold 40 seats, while the Joint Arab List and Ra’am would account for another 18.
The most consequential development was the projected collapse of Yisrael Beytenu, which Channel 14 placed below the 3.25% electoral threshold. Under Israeli election law, a party that fails to cross that threshold receives no Knesset seats, regardless of how close it comes to qualifying.
The exclusion of Lieberman’s party would have enormous implications for the distribution of seats, because votes cast for parties that fail to reach the threshold are excluded from the allocation of Knesset mandates. That effectively increases the relative weight of votes received by parties that successfully enter parliament.
Channel 14’s original projection had given Netanyahu’s bloc 60 seats and Lieberman’s party four. Its subsequent update removed Yisrael Beytenu from the Knesset entirely and increased the right-wing bloc to 62, crossing the critical majority threshold.
The revised numbers also showed Likud increasing to 31 seats and Shas reaching 10, while Eisenkot’s Yashar and the Joint Arab List also registered gains.
The dramatic revision followed a contentious exchange between Yisrael Beytenu and Channel 14 earlier in the election broadcast. Attorney Daniel Cohen, a former legal adviser to the Labor Party, had predicted during an appearance on the network that Lieberman would fail to enter the next Knesset.
Yisrael Beytenu responded angrily, accusing Channel 14 of spreading falsehoods and attacking the network’s coverage. The party insisted that attempts to damage Lieberman’s standing would not change the electoral outcome.
The updated Channel 14 projection appeared to support Cohen’s prediction, although it remained only an exit poll and did not establish that Lieberman had actually failed to cross the threshold.
The possibility of Yisrael Beytenu’s elimination is particularly significant given Lieberman’s long political career. A former defense minister, finance minister and foreign minister, Lieberman has been a major figure in Israeli politics for decades and has played an important role in previous coalition negotiations.
His exclusion from the Knesset, if confirmed by the official results, would represent a substantial political setback and could reshape the balance between Netanyahu and his opponents.
The results reported by other television networks, however, presented a markedly different picture.
Channel 12’s updated exit poll projected 52 seats for the opposition bloc, compared with 50 for Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious parties, with the Arab parties holding another 18 seats.
Channel 13 and Kan 11 reported broadly similar figures in their updated projections, with the two principal political blocs separated by only a small number of mandates.
Those surveys also projected that Yisrael Beytenu would comfortably cross the electoral threshold, receiving approximately seven to eight seats, in sharp contrast to Channel 14’s finding.
The i24NEWS exit poll, conducted by Direct Polls, offered another scenario, awarding Netanyahu’s bloc 55 seats and the non-Arab opposition 49, with Arab parties receiving 16 seats. That projection placed Netanyahu’s bloc ahead of its rivals but still below the parliamentary majority required to form a government independently.
The competing findings demonstrated how dramatically the outcome could depend on the final distribution of votes, particularly among parties near the electoral threshold.
For the chareidi parties, the Channel 14 projection offered a substantially different picture from the other networks.
Shas received 10 seats in the revised Channel 14 survey, compared with approximately six to eight in other projections. United Torah Judaism was awarded seven seats, while other networks generally projected six or seven.
Together, Shas and United Torah Judaism would hold 17 seats under Channel 14’s revised figures, compared with approximately 12 to 15 in several competing surveys.
Those differences are particularly important given the role the chareidi parties could play in the formation of the next government and in negotiations over legislation affecting the yeshiva world.
The election took place amid deep political divisions over the military draft, the status of yeshiva bochurim, government funding for Torah institutions and the broader relationship between the chareidi community and the state.
For Netanyahu, a 62-seat majority that includes both chareidi parties would provide a parliamentary basis for continuing his partnership with Shas and United Torah Judaism, although the coalition would still have to resolve difficult disagreements over military conscription and other major issues.
A result closer to the Channel 12, Channel 13 or Kan 11 projections would create a far more complicated political situation, potentially leaving both Netanyahu and Eisenkot unable to establish a government without securing support from parties outside their respective blocs.
The Arab parties emerged as another major factor in the election night calculations. Across the various exit polls, the Joint Arab List and Ra’am were projected to receive a combined 16 to 19 seats, reflecting substantial electoral strength.
That development could complicate coalition formation if neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the non-Arab opposition secures a majority.
Opposition leaders have differed over whether and under what circumstances they would consider relying on Arab parties to establish a government. The issue could become decisive if the final election results leave the two major blocs closely divided.
The Likud remained the largest individual party across the television exit polls, although its projected strength varied considerably. Channel 14 gave Netanyahu’s party 31 seats, while other surveys placed it in the mid-to-upper twenties.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party emerged as the second-largest faction in the projections, receiving approximately 20 to 23 seats, while Bennett’s Yachad party was projected to win between 11 and 15.
The differences between the surveys were particularly striking because the networks were measuring the same election, yet their projections suggested substantially different possibilities for the next government.
Election officials began processing the actual ballots after polling stations closed at 10 p.m., with official results expected to provide a clearer picture as counting progressed.
The exit polls were based on samples of voters and remained subject to revision. They were not official election results, and their accuracy could be affected by turnout patterns, late voting, the performance of smaller parties and the final allocation of seats.
The fate of Yisrael Beytenu was especially important because even a relatively small difference in its final vote share could determine whether it received several Knesset seats or none at all.
For Netanyahu’s supporters, Channel 14’s revised figures introduced the possibility of a parliamentary majority that would allow the prime minister to continue governing with his existing political partners.
For his opponents, the other networks’ projections suggested a substantially different outcome, with Netanyahu’s bloc remaining short of a majority and the country potentially facing difficult coalition negotiations.
A further late-night development added another twist to the already conflicting projections. A subsequent Channel 14 update reduced Netanyahu’s bloc from 62 seats to 60 and restored Yisrael Beytenu to the Knesset with four seats. Under that revised projection, Likud received 30 seats, Shas nine and United Torah Judaism seven, leaving Netanyahu’s bloc one seat short of a majority. The change demonstrated how sensitive the projections remained to Lieberman’s position near the electoral threshold.
Turnout was another major story of election night. The Central Elections Committee reported that 5,695,682 Israelis had voted by 10 p.m., representing 77.7% of eligible voters, approximately 7.1 percentage points higher than in the previous election. The unusually high participation was especially consequential for smaller parties because the number of votes required to cross the 3.25% threshold rises with the total number of valid ballots cast.
The latest developments reinforced the central uncertainty of the election: while Channel 14’s 62-seat projection briefly suggested that Netanyahu could form a government with his existing political allies, the other networks continued to show a closely divided Knesset. The subsequent revision to Channel 14’s own figures further illustrated why no definitive conclusion could be drawn from the exit polls alone.
The final outcome will depend on the official ballot count, including whether Yisrael Beytenu and other smaller parties cross the electoral threshold. Until those results are established, the question of who will be able to assemble Israel’s next governing coalition remains unresolved.
{Matzav.com}
