Power Grid on the Edge: Record Heat Wave Threatens Electricity Supply Across Eastern U.S.
A dangerous heat wave sweeping across the East Coast and Midwest is expected to drive electricity demand to unprecedented levels this week, pushing major U.S. power grids close to their limits as soaring temperatures combine with rapidly growing energy consumption from data centers and electric vehicles.
PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest regional grid operator, is forecasting electricity demand to reach 166.3 gigawatts Thursday evening—surpassing the previous summer record of 165.6 gigawatts that was set in 2006. The grid serves approximately 67 million customers across the Mid-Atlantic, parts of the South, and Washington, D.C.
Officials at PJM have also prepared for what they describe as the “unlikely but plausible scenarios of up to 169 GW of demand,” reflecting concerns that electricity use could climb even higher if temperatures or other conditions worsen.
To meet expected demand, PJM said it has roughly 180.2 gigawatts of available generating capacity. In addition, it can draw on programs capable of reducing demand by another 8 gigawatts by compensating customers who voluntarily cut back on electricity use during emergency conditions.
Forecasters expect temperatures to climb above 100 degrees Fahrenheit from Boston through Washington, D.C., including Northern Virginia, home to one of the world’s largest concentrations of data centers. The extreme heat is expected to send air-conditioning use soaring, placing additional stress on the electric grid just before the July 4 holiday.
“When temperatures and humidity spike, increased demand for air conditioning can strain generation and transmission resources,” warned New York ISO, the grid operator for New York state. Peak demand in New York is expected to approach 32 GW on Thursday, just shy of the record of nearly 34 GW, according to NYISO’s forecast on Monday.
Similar concerns are emerging farther west. The Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which oversees the power grid across 15 states in the Midwest and South, expects electricity demand to come close to its all-time record of 127.1 gigawatts.
To help satisfy that demand, MISO is expected to rely in part on electricity imported from PJM. However, PJM officials have repeatedly cautioned that the grid is facing “a fundamental mismatch between how fast demand is growing and how quickly new supply can be built and connected to the grid.”
In a report released in May, PJM outlined the mounting pressures facing the system, stating, “The region simultaneously faces hyperscale data centers adding load at an unprecedented pace, accelerated policy- and economically-driven retirements of generation, and new power plants that now take roughly twice as long to build and cost twice as much as they did a decade ago.”
As a result, the grid is operating with relatively little margin for error should major power plants unexpectedly go offline or transmission bottlenecks worsen during periods of peak demand.
Those concerns were reflected Monday evening, when wholesale electricity prices on the PJM system briefly skyrocketed above $1,600 per megawatt-hour after spending much of the day below $40 per megawatt-hour. Grid officials said the dramatic spike was driven by severe congestion on high-voltage transmission lines during the evening’s peak electricity usage.
{Matzav.com}
