THREE WARNINGS BEFORE OCT. 7: WSJ Says Egypt Repeatedly Sounded Alarm Before Hamas Massacre; Netanyahu Flatly Denies Report
Egypt repeatedly warned Israel in the months leading up to the October 7 massacre that the situation in Gaza was becoming dangerously unstable and that Hamas could be preparing for a major attack, according to a bombshell new Wall Street Journal report. Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has categorically denied receiving such a warning and has announced plans for legal action over the allegations.
The report says Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel became increasingly concerned after earlier warnings failed to produce a significant change in Israel’s posture toward Gaza. According to officials familiar with the matter, Kamel ultimately contacted Netanyahu’s office in early October 2023 with a third warning, just days before Hamas launched its massive invasion of southern Israel.
The first reported warning came in June 2023, when Egyptian officials cautioned their Israeli counterparts that conditions inside Gaza were deteriorating. Egypt urged Israel to reengage with Hamas over outstanding issues, including a possible prisoner arrangement.
That warning was broad and did not contain intelligence about a specific planned Hamas operation.
Egypt reportedly became considerably more concerned by September. Kamel traveled secretly to Israel late that month and warned senior officials that the situation in Gaza was approaching a dangerous point and could erupt.
Flight records reportedly show an aircraft associated with Egyptian intelligence arriving at Ben Gurion Airport on September 26 and remaining in Israel for slightly more than an hour.
One former Israeli official familiar with the Egyptian message characterized it this way: “If you don’t change course, Gaza is going to explode in your face.”
The Egyptian warning reportedly did not include a date for an attack, identify specific targets or describe anything resembling the enormous scale of the assault Hamas ultimately carried out on October 7.
Instead, Egypt was reportedly warning that Hamas and Gaza were moving toward a serious escalation and that Israel’s assessment of the situation was dangerously complacent.
According to the Journal, after the September warning failed to alter Israel’s approach, Kamel grew increasingly alarmed and contacted Netanyahu’s office directly in early October. Egyptian officials reportedly continued raising concerns until approximately 48 hours before the massacre.
That allegation is now at the center of a fierce dispute.
Netanyahu says it simply did not happen.
“In the months leading up to October 7, Prime Minister Netanyahu did not meet or speak with Abbas Kamel, who was then head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, and no Israeli intelligence official conveyed an Egyptian warning to the prime minister,” Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu has instructed his attorneys to pursue a libel lawsuit over the allegations. His office has also maintained that meetings or conversations with foreign intelligence chiefs would ordinarily involve the appropriate Israeli intelligence officials and that no such contact with Kamel occurred.
The Egyptian account has attracted additional attention because separate reports say officials in the United Arab Emirates were also becoming concerned about Hamas during the months preceding October 7.
Arab intelligence services had reportedly noticed changes in the rhetoric of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, as well as an increase in meetings between Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
According to the Journal, Emirati officials shared their concerns with Egypt and the United States, while UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed personally raised the issue with Netanyahu in September 2023.
People familiar with that conversation reportedly said Netanyahu did not appear persuaded by the warning. As with the Egyptian intelligence, however, the purported Emirati warning reportedly contained no date, specific targets or details indicating that Hamas was about to launch an invasion on the scale of October 7.
Netanyahu has denied receiving an advance warning from the UAE as well.
The controversy took another turn when Netanyahu traveled unexpectedly to Abu Dhabi this week for talks with bin Zayed. Reports subsequently claimed that Netanyahu wanted the Emirati leader to publicly deny that he had warned Israel about Hamas before October 7. Netanyahu’s office disputed that characterization of the visit.
Claims that Egypt warned Israel before the massacre first surfaced almost immediately after October 7.
Just days after the attack, then-House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul said publicly that Egyptian officials had alerted Israel shortly before Hamas struck.
“We know that Egypt had warned the Israelis three days prior that an event like this could happen,” McCaul said at the time.
The latest reporting goes significantly further, describing a series of warnings stretching across several months and alleging direct involvement by Kamel at the highest levels.
Netanyahu, meanwhile, has pointed to the actions of Israel’s own security chiefs during the critical hours immediately before the massacre.
The prime minister maintains that then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Military Intelligence chief Aharon Haliva were aware of troubling indications during the night of October 6 and the early morning of October 7 but failed to adequately alert him or take the necessary steps on the ground.
“Despite this, Ronen Bar decided not to call and update the prime minister, not to alert the civilian security squads and IDF forces in the field, not to evacuate the Nova festival—and instead only to send a small [elite counterterrorist] Tequila team (which proves that he knew there was a real danger),” Netanyahu said.
Bar has strongly rejected Netanyahu’s version of events and announced that he intends to sue the prime minister for defamation.
“After refusing for three years to acknowledge his responsibility and preventing, by every possible means, the establishment of a state commission of inquiry to which the public and bereaved families are entitled, he has begun selectively publishing documents in a manipulative manner and out of their proper context,” Bar said.
“Now, as testimony concerning warnings he received before the massacre is beginning to emerge,” he continued, “he is attempting to divert the blame away from himself by leveling accusations at those who warned him in real time.”
Bar has asserted that he warned Netanyahu of “impending disaster in an unprecedented manner, and that the prime minister ignored these warnings, as well as the recommendations to restore deterrence and strengthen the border.”
The new controversy comes after investigations into October 7 established a series of serious failures within Israel’s military and intelligence establishment before the massacre.
Israeli intelligence had obtained a Hamas document laying out a scenario for a massive cross-border assault but concluded that Hamas lacked the capability or intention to carry out such an operation at the time.
Female surveillance soldiers stationed along the Gaza border also repeatedly reported increasingly troubling Hamas training exercises and activity. Those warnings failed to overturn the prevailing assessment within the security establishment that Hamas was deterred and primarily interested in maintaining control of Gaza and securing economic improvements.
