The political campaign against the chareidi community over the military draft is losing its effectiveness as Israeli voters increasingly shift their attention toward national security and economic concerns, according to political analyst Matti Tuchfeld, who also believes that chareidi parties have few realistic alternatives to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu despite their reluctance to commit publicly to supporting him.
Speaking with Avi Mimran on Kol Chai’s main news program, Tuchfeld, a political commentator for Channel 14, argued that the political atmosphere has changed significantly in recent weeks, leaving parties that continue to make chareidi military enlistment the centerpiece of their campaigns increasingly disconnected from the issues driving voters.
Tuchfeld also discussed Netanyahu’s recent warnings about the electoral balance between the right and left, explaining that the prime minister is particularly concerned about votes going to smaller right-wing parties that may fail to cross the electoral threshold, as well as relatively low voter turnout in traditional Likud strongholds.
Addressing the relationship between Netanyahu and the chareidi parties, Tuchfeld acknowledged that MK Yaakov Asher and other United Torah Judaism representatives have carefully avoided making firm commitments to the prime minister ahead of the elections. Nevertheless, he argued that the political realities leave them with limited room to maneuver.
He recalled that chareidi parties had previously participated in governments headed by Labor and other parties outside the right-wing bloc, including administrations led by Yitzchak Rabin, Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert.
According to Tuchfeld, however, the Israeli left has undergone a fundamental ideological transformation that makes such partnerships considerably more difficult today.
“Today’s left is a left that is entirely progressive, anti-Jewish, anti-traditional,” he said, characterizing what he views as the movement’s departure from the positions held by previous generations of left-wing leaders.
Tuchfeld maintained that the political preferences of chareidi voters have also changed, with many now identifying more strongly with the right-wing bloc and favoring Netanyahu over other candidates for prime minister.
“They, too, expect the right, and they, too, prefer Netanyahu over all the other candidates,” he said.
As a result, Tuchfeld argued, chareidi elected officials have considerably less freedom to explore alternative political alliances than they once did, although he did not rule out the possibility entirely.
The discussion then turned to the ongoing controversy surrounding the drafting of yeshiva bochurim, an issue that has dominated Israeli political debate and become a central campaign theme for several opposition figures.
Mimran pointed to an apparent contradiction between the prominence of the draft issue in political advertising and its relative importance to voters. According to the polling trends he cited, the matter ranks only fourth or fifth among voters’ concerns, well behind security and the economy.
Tuchfeld explained that the campaign targeting the chareidi community had initially proved highly effective, particularly among certain segments of the right-wing and religious Zionist electorate.
“What we are seeing now is actually the final days of the anti-chareidi campaign, which was very, very successful,” he said.
He suggested that the messaging had been especially influential among right-leaning voters in communities such as Ra’anana and Elkana, where military service and the demand for equal participation in the national defense burden had become particularly important political issues.
According to Tuchfeld, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had also adopted this approach as part of his efforts to appeal to those voters.
The political analyst argued, however, that the issues dominating the national conversation have since changed substantially.
Security developments, including the attempted takeover of a Flydubai passenger aircraft that narrowly avoided disaster, have redirected public attention toward questions of national defense and leadership.
Tuchfeld also credited Netanyahu with working to shape the political agenda around security concerns rather than allowing the opposition to dictate the terms of the election campaign.
Another factor, he said, is polling that suggests parties opposed to Netanyahu would struggle to establish a governing coalition without the participation or support of Arab parties.
Together, these developments are, in Tuchfeld’s assessment, weakening the effectiveness of a campaign centered primarily on opposition to exemptions from military service for chareidi yeshiva students.
He argued that the number of voters choosing a party principally because of its promise to draft chareidim is declining.
“Those who are still trying to continue along this line are simply not up to date,” he said.
“They are relying on polls and a political agenda from two or three months ago. They do not understand that the public mood has changed completely.”
The interview also examined Netanyahu’s recent remarks at a Likud conference, where he warned party activists that the election could produce an evenly divided political map, with 60 Knesset seats on each side.
That warning appeared to contrast with polling presented by political strategist Shlomo Filber, whose surveys have suggested a more favorable position for the right-wing bloc.
Tuchfeld explained that Netanyahu’s comments were intended primarily to mobilize party activists and impress upon them the importance of maximizing every available vote.
According to his analysis, Filber’s polling does not show Yaron Zelekha and Ofer Winter crossing the electoral threshold. If those parties are instead assumed to enter the Knesset, the resulting distribution of seats becomes more similar to other surveys, in which neither bloc possesses a clear governing majority.
Tuchfeld said Netanyahu’s warning was therefore aimed partly at preventing right-wing votes from being lost to smaller parties that might ultimately fail to win Knesset representation.
“There are three seats there that we have to bring in. Three seats with Zelekha and Winter,” he said, explaining the message Netanyahu was seeking to convey to Likud candidates.
A second major concern, according to Tuchfeld, is voter participation in areas traditionally associated with the political right.
He noted that turnout in some right-wing strongholds has historically been lower than the national average, creating a potential obstacle for Netanyahu even when public opinion appears favorable to his bloc.
In that context, Tuchfeld pointed to the joint campaign operation established by Likud and Religious Zionism to encourage their supporters to vote.
“There is a very big difference, really, between defeat and victory, if sixty percent of the right-wing districts come out or seventy percent of the right-wing districts come out,” he said.
“That is something that can tip the scales, and that is what Netanyahu now wants to do.”
Tuchfeld identified a third message Netanyahu is attempting to emphasize in the closing stages of the campaign: the possibility that a government opposed to him could depend on Arab parties for parliamentary support.
According to Tuchfeld, internal examinations conducted by Likud suggested that some voters regard such an arrangement as undesirable but do not necessarily consider it a decisive reason to oppose the alternative coalition.
He said Netanyahu wants Likud representatives to place greater emphasis on that possibility during television appearances and through social media.
The prime minister’s message, as described by Tuchfeld, includes warnings about the political concessions and financial commitments that Arab parties might demand in exchange for joining or supporting such a government.
Among the concerns Netanyahu wants highlighted are the possibility of “massive budget transfers” as a condition for Arab-party participation in a coalition arrangement.
Tuchfeld said the prime minister is seeking to ensure that Likud candidates deliver a consistent message on these issues during the remaining weeks of the election campaign.
“These are the things he is asking for this evening, in order to align the campaign during the two weeks and a bit that remain,” Tuchfeld concluded.
