New classified intelligence assessments presented to senior American officials reportedly show that Iran has restored access to most of its missile infrastructure and underground military facilities, contradicting repeated public claims by the Trump administration that Tehran’s military had been largely destroyed during the war.
According to the assessments, one of the most alarming developments for U.S. officials is Iran’s restoration of operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites positioned along the Strait of Hormuz — a key strategic waterway through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply passes.
Sources familiar with the intelligence said the reports indicate that, despite varying levels of damage to the sites, Iranian forces are once again able to move missiles using mobile launchers stationed inside the facilities. In certain cases, missiles can reportedly be launched directly from launchpads located within the sites themselves.
Only three missile facilities along the Strait of Hormuz are still considered completely inaccessible, according to the intelligence findings.
The assessments further conclude that Iran continues to possess approximately 70 percent of its mobile missile launchers nationwide and retains roughly 70 percent of the missile stockpile it had before the war began.
That arsenal reportedly includes both ballistic missiles capable of striking countries across the region and a smaller number of cruise missiles designed for shorter-range attacks against land and maritime targets.
U.S. military intelligence agencies also reportedly determined — based on satellite imagery and other surveillance methods — that Iran has regained access to approximately 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch sites throughout the country.
Those facilities are now believed to be either partially or fully operational, according to officials familiar with the assessments.
The findings stand in sharp contrast to repeated statements by President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, both of whom publicly described Iran’s military as crippled and no longer a meaningful threat.
On March 9, roughly 10 days after the war began, Trump told CBS News that Iran’s “missiles are down to a scatter” and that the country had “nothing left in a military sense.”
Later, during an April 8 Pentagon press conference, Hegseth declared that Operation Epic Fury — the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign launched on Feb. 28 — had “decimated Iran’s military and rendered it combat-ineffective for years to come.”
However, officials noted that the new intelligence describing Iran’s remaining military strength was compiled less than a month after those public remarks.
When asked about the intelligence assessments, White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales reiterated the administration’s position that Iran’s military had been severely damaged.
She said Iran’s leadership understands that its “current reality is not sustainable” and argued that anyone who “thinks Iran has reconstituted its military is either delusional or a mouthpiece” for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Wales also pointed to Trump’s recent social media post accusing critics of “virtual treason” for suggesting Iran’s military remained capable.
Acting Pentagon press secretary Joel Valdez also dismissed the intelligence-based criticism and accused media organizations of minimizing the military operation’s achievements.
“It is so disgraceful that The New York Times and others are acting as public relations agents for the Iranian regime in order to paint Operation Epic Fury as anything other than a historic accomplishment,” Valdez said.
The new intelligence assessments suggest that Trump and senior military advisers may have significantly overestimated the extent of damage inflicted on Iran’s missile infrastructure while underestimating Tehran’s ability to rebuild and recover.
Last month, The New York Times reported that American officials believed Iran could ultimately restore as much as 70 percent of its prewar missile arsenal. The Washington Post later reported intelligence estimates showing Iran still possessed about 75 percent of its mobile missile launchers and roughly 70 percent of its missile stockpile.
The intelligence findings also highlight the difficult strategic position facing the United States if the fragile ceasefire collapses and large-scale fighting resumes.
The U.S. military has already expended major portions of several key weapons stockpiles during the conflict, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptor missiles, Precision Strike missiles, and ATACMS ground-launched missiles.
At the same time, the assessments indicate that Iran still retains substantial military capability, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.
Roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply passes through the narrow waterway, where the U.S. Navy now maintains an almost constant military presence. U.S. Central Command said Sunday that more than 20 American warships are currently enforcing the blockade against Iran.
Should Trump order renewed military strikes aimed at eliminating Iran’s remaining capabilities, the Pentagon would likely need to further deplete already strained weapons reserves.
Officials warned that such a move could deepen concerns about American preparedness at a time when the Pentagon and major defense contractors are already struggling to replenish munitions stockpiles.
Trump and senior administration officials have repeatedly rejected suggestions that U.S. weapons inventories are approaching dangerously low levels.
Behind closed doors, Pentagon officials have reportedly offered similar reassurances to European allies, many of whom purchased large quantities of American-made munitions on behalf of Ukraine and fear future deliveries could be delayed if the U.S. military prioritizes replenishing its own reserves.
Those concerns would likely intensify if hostilities with Iran resume.
Speaking Tuesday before a House appropriations subcommittee, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine defended the Pentagon’s readiness.
“We have sufficient munitions for what we’re tasked to do right now,” Caine testified.
The joint U.S.-Israeli campaign nevertheless inflicted major damage on Iran’s military infrastructure and strategic facilities, while also killing several senior Iranian officials and placing enormous pressure on the country’s economy.
Even so, analysts say Iran’s continued ability to maintain meaningful military capabilities has increased concerns among U.S. allies regarding the long-term effectiveness of the war and fueled criticism from anti-interventionist supporters of Trump who opposed entering the conflict.
The intelligence assessments also reveal details about tactical decisions made during the military campaign.
According to officials, because of limited supplies of bunker-busting weapons, American commanders often chose to seal entrances to hardened Iranian missile facilities rather than attempt to completely destroy the underground complexes themselves.
Some bunker-buster munitions were used against Iranian underground sites, but military planners reportedly sought to conserve portions of the arsenal for possible future conflicts involving China or North Korea.
The report also underscored the extraordinary scale of the American military effort.
According to previous reporting by The New York Times, the United States used approximately 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles during the war — nearly exhausting the remaining stockpile.
American forces also launched more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, roughly ten times the amount the Pentagon purchases annually, along with more than 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles, representing more than two years of production at current manufacturing rates.
Defense industry officials reportedly warned that replenishing those weapons stockpiles could take years rather than months.
Lockheed Martin currently manufactures about 650 Patriot interceptors annually and has announced plans to increase production to 2,000 per year, though officials cautioned that rapidly expanding rocket motor production remains extremely difficult.
Sean Parnell, the Pentagon’s chief spokesman, insisted the military remains fully prepared for ongoing operations.
“We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests,” Parnell said in a statement.
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