Cuban-American lawmakers are calling on the Trump administration to sharply intensify its campaign against Cuba’s Communist leadership, contending that the government in Havana is more vulnerable than at any point in decades and that sustained pressure could finally bring about change.
“It’s a failed nation, and they’re not getting any money from Venezuela, and they’re not getting any money from anyone,” President Trump said during remarks to reporters on Feb. 2, as reports circulated that he is considering a push for regime change in Cuba before the end of the year. His comments came shortly after he warned of tariffs on countries that sell or supply oil to the island.
Signs of strain inside Cuba have become increasingly visible. President Miguel Díaz-Canel conceded Thursday, during an unusual press conference, that the government can no longer ensure consistent electricity or even maintain “basic activities” because of severe fuel shortages.
Although Díaz-Canel signaled a willingness to engage in talks with the Trump administration, he stressed that Cuban sovereignty would not be negotiable and said the government was drawing up a “defense plan” in response to pressure from Washington.
“We aren’t in a state of war,” Díaz-Canel said, “but we are preparing ourselves in case we have to move to a state of war.”
At the same time, Trump has suggested that behind-the-scenes discussions with senior Cuban figures are already underway. He said last week that “I think we’re pretty close” to reaching an agreement.
Alejandro Castro Espin, the son of Raúl Castro, is reportedly among the senior officials involved in those contacts, which could offer the ruling elite a way to preserve its grip on power.
Still, Trump has insisted that any agreement he pursues must lead to fundamental change, saying the goal is for Cuba to “be free again” after 67 years under authoritarian rule.
Rep. Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), who fled Cuba as a child following Fidel Castro’s 1959 takeover, told The Post that he believes the end of the regime is approaching.
“I’ve been here 65 years, I don’t think I’ve ever seen the regime as weak as it is right now,” he said.
“I think what the administration should be doing is what they’re doing — putting pressure on supposed friends of ours that are helping to maintain the regime.”
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), whose family also escaped Cuba after the Communist revolution, echoed that view and urged even tougher measures.
“What needs to happen is to increase the pressure, and what I mean by that is pressure in every way: economic, diplomatic, in every way possible,” he said.
“It’s the only thing that’s ever worked in the history of our planet when you have a dictatorship like this that doesn’t want to give up power,” Diaz-Balart added. “Zero tolerance and total pressure.”
Mexico has long expressed “solidarity” with Cuba and has historically supplied the island with limited quantities of crude oil.
Those shipments have dropped sharply since the Jan. 3 arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, falling to roughly 3,000 barrels per day this year from about 20,000 barrels per day in 2025, according to the Wall Street Journal. Trump has made clear he wants that number reduced to nothing.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has described the oil transfers as “humanitarian,” but on Feb. 1 she reluctantly indicated that Mexico would stop sending oil to Cuba.
According to trade intelligence firm Kpler, the island now has only 15 to 20 days’ worth of oil remaining.
“The word ‘choke off’ is awfully tough,” Trump said when asked about his approach. “I’m not trying to, but it looks like it’s something that’s just not going to be able to survive.”
Sebastián A. Arcos, interim director of Florida International University’s Cuban Research Institute, said expectations have shifted dramatically.
“there is no longer an expectation that the regime will survive in the medium term.”
“Before [Maduro’s arrest] Jan. 3, it was understood that the regime was in a terminal crisis with a long horizon … that assumption evaporated after what Trump did in Venezuela,” Arcos said. “Without Venezuela and oil, the Cuban economy will go from limping along to collapsing.”
“There is no one who can come to save them from their own economic incompetence. The economy will shut down once they run out of oil.”
For years, Cuba relied on subsidized Venezuelan oil under an arrangement forged in the 2000s by Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez.
Under that pact, Cuba sent doctors along with military and security personnel to Venezuela in exchange for discounted petroleum.
Instead of using the fuel domestically, however, about 60% of the 70,000 barrels per day Venezuela supplied last year was resold to Asia, according to a US official.
With rolling blackouts spreading across the island, that decision to sell oil was described by a State Department official as “further proof that the illegitimate Cuban regime only prioritizes enriching itself all while the Cuban people suffer the consequences of their corrupt nature and incompetence.”
Politico reported in late January that the White House is weighing a full naval blockade to stop any future oil deliveries to Cuba.
“Look, this regime has destroyed the island,” Gimenez said. “There’s no power, there’s no food, there’s no medicine — it’s at its end, it’s time for them to go.
“Any and all pressure that can be exerted to make this cancer go away is what the United States needs to do.”
Neither Gimenez nor Diaz-Balart believes US troops will be needed to bring down the government.
“Because it is so weak, I think you exert as much pressure as possible and let the regime collapse under its own weight,” Gimenez said.
“If pressure is increased, I think its days are numbered,” Diaz-Balart said. “The president — and this president particularly — always keeps all options on the table, but I just don’t think [US military intervention] necessary.”
Arcos said military action could become likely if mass protests erupt and the government responds with violent repression.
“If anti-government demonstrators take to the streets and the regime decides that they will do what the Iranians did, and they start massacring innocent Cubans,” he said, “the pressure on the US government to do something [in that scenario] will be immense.”
He added that he has no doubt “there will be blood in the streets” if Cubans rise up against the state.
Raúl Castro handed the presidency to Díaz-Canel in 2021, but analysts say he and his family continue to hold real power and would almost certainly be central to any talks with Washington.
“Everyone in Havana — even Cuban government officials — acknowledge Raúl Castro is really in charge, but he’s 94 years old, and his top aides are in their 90s as well,” said Michael Rubin, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
“Miguel Díaz-Canel is just a figurehead, and figureheads whose patrons die soon find themselves in exile or hanging from the gallows,” Rubin added.
Rubin warned that a prolonged power vacuum could invite outside interference from adversaries.
“Russians, Chinese, or even their Nicaraguans proxies” could step in, he cautioned.
He argued that Secretary of State Marco Rubio should begin laying the groundwork for a constitutional process.
“What [Secretary of State Marco] Rubio should be doing now is setting up the parameters of a constitutional convention so Cubans have some degree of insight into their future,” Rubin said.
Earlier this month, the Wall Street Journal reported that the administration has already been meeting with Cuban exile groups while assessing which figures inside the regime might assist in a transition toward a pro-American government.
“The department regularly meets with civil society types. As is typical in routine meetings such as these, no commitments were made,” a senior State Department official said.
Unlike Venezuela, Cuba has no legal opposition party or recognized opposition leader, a reality that could complicate any democratic transition.
“There are more political prisoners in Cuba than in Venezuela, and Venezuela is four times bigger,” Arcos said. “So there is an active political opposition in Cuba, but it is completely repressed by the government.
“The opposition exists, but it cannot grow into what the Venezuelan opposition did, because this is a police state … It’s a different kind of animal.”
Rubin, who previously served at the Pentagon, said he believes the administration, including the CIA, is actively exploring potential partners within Cuba.
“When a country’s economy collapses and its ideology is discredited, people will do anything for money,” he said. “I’m sure the CIA’s biggest problem is actually handling all the potential sources rather than finding one.”
If the regime were to collapse, analysts say Washington might seek to work with Cuba’s powerful military to enforce change.
Arcos estimates the armed forces control roughly $20 billion through their dominance of the island’s most lucrative industries, including tourism, fuel distribution, money transfers, and currency exchange.
The Trump administration could attempt to build a relationship with Cuba’s military akin to its ties with Venezuela’s former Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, though Arcos warned that the generals would resist reforms that undermine their dominance.
“They will try to dupe the United States government,” he said. “They will probably enter in some sort of negotiation to gain time … to see if Trump goes away and someone else comes that is different.
“They’re masters at doing this. They did it with Clinton, they did it with Obama, and they will do it to Trump.”
“And in the meantime, you know, we have to send Cuba humanitarian assistance — because the poor Cubans are starving and dying of diseases that didn’t exist 50 years ago — and they remain in power,” he continued.
“So it could be a trick, and they will try to negotiate that way … to fool the United States into a very long-term negotiation where they don’t give much and they get enough to survive.
“If the pressure is not applied,” Arcos said, “then we might have another extended period of uncertainty.”
Both Gimenez and Diaz-Balart acknowledged that even if change comes, Cuba’s path to democracy will be difficult and protracted, but they said it is a goal worth pursuing.
“It will not be easy,” Gimenez said. “Will it be long? Yeah, I could see it taking some time, but it’s something that we must, must attain, something that we have to reach.
“It took like, what, seven years for America to gain its independence from Great Britain? So things like that don’t happen overnight. But, you know, I’m sure glad we stuck it out, because that’s how we created the greatest country on Earth, and we can create an unbelievably great country in Cuba.”
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