ELECTION NIGHT TAKEAWAYS: Netanyahu Just One Seat From Majority in Channel 14 Poll, Other Networks Show Deadlock as UTJ’s Seventh Seat Hangs in Balance
Israel’s election for the 26th Knesset ended Tuesday night with sharply conflicting exit polls, leaving Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s political future uncertain, United Torah Judaism’s seventh seat hanging in the balance, and the country facing the possibility of prolonged coalition negotiations or another election.
The most dramatic projection came from Channel 14, which gave Netanyahu’s right-wing and chareidi bloc 60 seats, just one short of the 61 required for a Knesset majority. In contrast, Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13 each projected only 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, while i24NEWS placed it at 55 and Channel 16 at 53.
The enormous gap between the television networks means that Israel could be heading toward very different political outcomes, depending on which projections prove closest to the actual vote count.
For the chareidi community, one of the most closely watched questions is whether United Torah Judaism will retain its seventh Knesset seat. Kan 11 and Channel 12 projected six seats for UTJ, while Channel 13, Channel 14, and i24NEWS gave the party seven.
Shas, meanwhile, is projected to suffer a substantial decline from the 11 seats it won in 2022. Kan 11 and Channel 13 projected six seats for Aryeh Deri’s party, Channel 12 and i24NEWS gave it eight, and Channel 14 projected nine.
Taken together, the two established chareidi parties are projected to win between 12 and 16 seats, compared with the combined 18 seats they received in the previous election.
The exit polls were released at 10 p.m. Israel time, following a day of extraordinarily high voter participation that saw political parties scrambling to mobilize supporters amid warnings that turnout patterns could dramatically affect the composition of the next Knesset.
According to the Central Elections Committee, voter turnout had reached 74.3% by 8 p.m., already surpassing the final turnout recorded in the 2022 election. By the time polling stations closed, turnout was reported at approximately 77.7%, reflecting one of the highest participation rates in decades.
The unusually large number of voters raised particular concerns among chareidi party officials, who warned throughout the day that heavy turnout in Arab communities and opposition strongholds, coupled with comparatively weaker participation in some chareidi areas, could cost their parties valuable seats.
The exit polls indicate that those concerns may have been justified.
Kan 11 projected Likud winning 25 seats, making it the largest individual party in the Knesset. Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to receive 21 seats, while former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party was given 14.
The Joint Arab List was projected to receive 10 seats and Ra’am seven, giving the Arab parties a combined 17 seats. Yair Golan’s Democrats were projected to win 10 seats, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu eight, and Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit seven.
Under the Kan 11 projection, United Torah Judaism, Shas, and the Religious Zionism–Zehut alliance would each receive six seats.
The resulting parliamentary distribution would give Netanyahu’s bloc 50 seats, the principal opposition parties 53, and the Arab parties 17.
Channel 12 presented a somewhat different distribution but reached essentially the same conclusion regarding Netanyahu’s parliamentary strength.
According to Channel 12, Likud would win 24 seats, Eisenkot’s Yashar party 22, and Bennett’s B’Yachad party 12.
The Joint Arab List would receive 11 seats, while Ra’am would win seven, giving the Arab parties a combined 18 mandates.
Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats were each projected to receive nine seats, while Shas was given eight. United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism–Zehut, and Otzma Yehudit were each projected to receive six.
Under that scenario, Netanyahu’s bloc would control 50 seats, the principal opposition parties 52, and the Arab parties 18.
Channel 13 also projected 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, but its results were somewhat more favorable to United Torah Judaism.
The network gave Likud 25 seats, Eisenkot’s Yashar party 23, and Bennett’s B’Yachad party 14.
The Joint Arab List was projected to win 10 seats and Ra’am seven. The Democrats received nine seats, while Yisrael Beytenu and United Torah Judaism were each projected to win seven.
Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism–Zehut, and Shas were each projected to receive six seats.
Under the Channel 13 projection, the principal opposition bloc would receive 53 seats, Netanyahu’s bloc 50, and the Arab parties 17.
Channel 14, however, presented a dramatically different picture, one that placed Netanyahu on the verge of securing another term as prime minister.
Its exit poll projected Likud winning 30 seats, substantially more than any of the other major networks predicted.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to receive 19 seats, while Bennett’s B’Yachad party would win 11.
Shas was projected to receive nine seats, with United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism–Zehut each winning seven.
The Democrats were given nine seats, while Yisrael Beytenu was projected to receive four.
The Joint Arab List was projected to win 10 seats and Ra’am seven.
Channel 14 reported an overall distribution of 60 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 43 for the principal opposition, and 17 for the Arab parties, although its published individual party figures did not fully reconcile with those bloc totals.
The projection nevertheless represented a striking departure from the results presented by the other three major television networks.
Two additional broadcasters, i24NEWS and Channel 16, produced projections that fell between those competing scenarios.
i24NEWS projected 55 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 49 for the principal opposition, and 16 for the Arab parties.
Its individual party projections included 27 seats for Likud, 20 for Eisenkot’s Yashar, 15 for Bennett’s B’Yachad, eight for Shas, and seven for United Torah Judaism.
Channel 16 projected 53 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, 51 for the principal opposition, and 16 for the Arab parties.
The different projections have created considerable uncertainty over the political consequences of Tuesday’s election.
Although Likud emerged as the largest individual party in every major exit poll, that distinction does not automatically guarantee Netanyahu the ability to form a government.
Under Israel’s parliamentary system, a prime minister must assemble sufficient support in the 120-member Knesset to establish a governing coalition.
A majority requires 61 seats, meaning that even Channel 14’s most favorable projection would leave Netanyahu one seat short.
The other major networks suggest that he would face a considerably more difficult path to forming a coalition.
The opposition faces its own challenges.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to emerge as the second-largest faction, with between 19 and 23 seats, while Bennett’s B’Yachad is projected to receive between 11 and 15.
Together with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu and Golan’s Democrats, the principal opposition parties are projected to hold between 43 and 53 seats, depending on the network.
The Arab parties are projected to control between 16 and 18 seats, potentially giving them considerable influence over the parliamentary balance.
However, the ideological and political differences among the opposition factions, particularly regarding cooperation with Arab parties, could complicate efforts to form an alternative government.
For United Torah Judaism, the immediate concern remains the fate of its seventh seat.
The party entered Election Day amid warnings that an exceptionally high national turnout could increase the number of votes needed to secure each mandate.
Party officials also expressed concern over the emergence of alternative chareidi political lists, which sought to attract voters dissatisfied with the established parties, particularly over the military draft controversy and the treatment of yeshiva bochurim.
Although those smaller chareidi lists are not projected to cross the electoral threshold, votes cast for them could still affect UTJ’s final representation by reducing the number of votes available to the established chareidi party.
Throughout Tuesday, leading rabbonim issued repeated appeals urging eligible voters to participate in the election and support United Torah Judaism.
As the day progressed, the campaign intensified amid reports of particularly heavy turnout in communities associated with the political opposition.
The concern was especially pronounced because the seventh UTJ seat had already been viewed as vulnerable before Election Day.
With Kan 11 and Channel 12 projecting six mandates, and Channel 13, Channel 14, and i24NEWS projecting seven, the final outcome may depend on relatively small differences in the actual vote totals and the allocation of surplus votes.
Shas faces a similarly important count, although its projected losses are substantially larger.
The party’s projected representation of six to nine seats would mark a decline from the 11 mandates it received in 2022.
The combined results could leave the chareidi parties with fewer representatives in the next Knesset at a time when the military draft issue, funding for yeshivos, and other matters affecting the chareidi community remain central political questions.
Another important factor is the performance of smaller parties near the electoral threshold.
Israel requires parties to receive at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter the Knesset. Parties that fall short receive no seats, and their votes are excluded from the allocation of parliamentary mandates.
Exit polls indicated that several smaller parties, including lists associated with Ofer Winter and Yoaz Hendel, were unlikely to cross that threshold.
Their failure to enter the Knesset could influence the distribution of seats among the larger parties, particularly if their supporters are concentrated within one political camp.
The official vote count began after polling stations closed, with the Central Elections Committee expected to release updated figures as ballots are processed.
Votes cast by soldiers, diplomats, hospital patients, prisoners, and others using special double envelopes will be counted separately, meaning that some close seat allocations may remain unresolved even after most regular ballots have been tallied.
The Central Elections Committee has indicated that it expects to complete the count by Thursday, October 29, although the legal deadline for publication of the official results is November 4.
Once the results are finalized, President Isaac Herzog will consult with the elected parties before selecting the Knesset member he believes has the best prospect of forming a government.
That individual will then begin the process of negotiating a coalition, a task that could prove particularly difficult if the final results resemble the projections showing neither major bloc close to a majority.
Israel has previously experienced prolonged periods of political deadlock, including the years between 2019 and 2022, when repeated elections failed to produce a stable governing majority.
Tuesday’s results have raised the possibility of another extended period of political uncertainty.
For now, the exit polls agree on several important points: Likud remains Israel’s largest individual party, Eisenkot has emerged as Netanyahu’s principal challenger, the Arab parties are projected to achieve substantial representation, and the established chareidi parties face the possibility of losing seats.
But the most consequential questions remain unanswered.
Whether Netanyahu can secure a parliamentary majority, whether Eisenkot can assemble an alternative coalition, and whether United Torah Judaism retains its seventh seat will ultimately be determined by the official count rather than the television projections.
Until those results become clear, Israel faces an election-night picture marked by unusually high turnout, conflicting projections, and considerable uncertainty over the composition of its next government.
{Matzav.com}
