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Why the Iran War May Come Down to the Control of One Tiny Island

Matzav -

A small island in the Persian Gulf that is only about one-third the size of Manhattan has become a focal point in discussions about how the conflict with Iran could unfold, as analysts say its control could dramatically affect Tehran’s finances and influence President Trump’s strategy toward the regime, the NY Post reports.

Kharg Island sits roughly 16 miles from Iran’s coastline in the Persian Gulf. Because of its exposed position, experts say it could be difficult for Iran to defend while also being relatively easy for adversaries to isolate — factors that have reportedly attracted attention from planners within the administration.

“Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Take it out, and this means cutting off the military budget in addition to pulling the plug on the basic services that keep Iranian society functioning,” said Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the DC-based Middle East Institute.

Soliman explained that even a temporary disruption of activity on the island could send shockwaves through Iran’s economy and internal stability.

“Losing Kharg for even a few weeks will create a security and societal crisis in Iran at the same time. Tehran doesn’t get to choose which one to deal with first,” said Soliman, author of “West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East.”

“The revenue shortfall would run into the billions monthly. You’d see the currency collapse further, inflation spike, subsidies buckle, and this will add more pressure on the country with no quick way to stop the bleeding.”

According to a source familiar with administration thinking, the question surrounding a move to seize the island is less about whether it will happen and more about the timing, given its strategic importance in the wider conflict.

The source said the Israel Defense Forces would prefer to capture the island sooner, while American commanders are believed to favor continuing strikes against Iran’s offensive capabilities before turning attention to Kharg.

Under that approach, taking control of the island would occur only after Iran’s military power had already been severely weakened, allowing the move to deliver maximum strategic pressure on the regime.

Although Iranian oil exports face heavy American sanctions, most crude shipped from Kharg ultimately ends up in China.

Since the war began on Feb. 28, oil shipments moving through the Persian Gulf have slowed dramatically. The disruption has rattled global markets, prompting sharp fluctuations in trading as Trump attempts to encourage commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by offering a new reinsurance plan along with U.S. naval escorts.

JP Morgan warned in a statement Monday that “a direct strike [on Kharg Island] would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure.”

Axios was the first to report that Washington was considering a mission aimed at capturing Kharg Island.

Former administration official John Ullyot, who previously served in defense roles including at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term, said the island’s central role in Iran’s economy could provide the United States with major leverage.

Ullyot described the prospect of a military operation to take the island as a risky move that could nonetheless deliver major strategic benefits.

A US raid to capture Kharg would be “high-risk, high-reward,” Ullyot said.

“To take such a high percentage of the Iranian oil supply off the table would cripple the regime and would also give the US, as it has in Venezuela, a big say on where Iran’s oil supply would go,” he said.

“This is the whole source of their economy.”

Since launching the war with Iran, Trump has frequently pointed to events in Venezuela, telling audiences how he removed dictator Nicolas Maduro and replaced him with vice president Delcy Rodriquez, who later agreed to direct oil exports toward the United States and allow American companies into the country’s energy sector.

Ullyot said Trump appears aware of the dangers that come with occupying territory inside Iran itself, suggesting that large numbers of American troops may not be necessary because of Kharg Island’s geographic position.

“One option would be to do a naval blockade of the island,” he said.

“President Trump can essentially seize the island by having an aggressive blockade of the island, [which] he could use down the line to essentially make the Iranian oil supply subject to his call… It would also give him leverage to influence who would be, ultimately, the next leader or interim leader of Iran.”

Speaking Monday afternoon, Trump said he expects the conflict to conclude soon.

“I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion,” the president said.

“So the rest is going to be a determination as to my attitude, along with the people in the Trump administration, what we want to do.”

{Matzav.com}

Ted Cruz: “Tucker Carlson Is The Single Most Dangerous Demagogue In This Country”

Matzav -

A public dispute between Sen. Ted Cruz and commentator Tucker Carlson intensified again this week as the two prominent conservative figures exchanged sharp criticism over Israel, antisemitism, and the war with Iran.

Speaking Tuesday at an antisemitism symposium in Washington organized by the Republican Jewish Coalition and National Review, the Texas Republican delivered a blistering attack on Carlson and vowed to confront the podcast host directly.

“I believe Tucker Carlson is the single most dangerous demagogue in this country,” Cruz said. He added that antisemitism has become increasingly visible on the political right in recent months. “I have seen more antisemitism in the last 18 months on the right than at any point in my lifetime,” Cruz continued. “It is being spread by loud voices, the most consequential of whom is Tucker Carlson.”

Cruz’s comments came days after Carlson mocked Cruz and others who rely on Israeli intelligence assessments during a recent episode of his podcast.

During the March 2 broadcast, Carlson ridiculed what he described as blind trust in Israeli intelligence. “No offense to Ted Cruz or all the other dumbos who are always saying, ‘we get all this actionable intelligence, it’s so important, we need [Israel] so desperately,’” Carlson said. “Really? Let’s evaluate the quality of that intelligence.”

The conflict between the two men reflects a broader divide among conservatives over U.S. policy toward Israel and Iran. Both figures host widely followed podcasts and are frequently mentioned as possible contenders in the 2028 presidential race, making their rivalry a potential preview of future political battles within the Republican Party.

Carlson, who remains one of the most influential voices in conservative media and maintains ties to the White House, is often discussed as a possible presidential candidate despite criticism from many Republicans. Cruz, who finished second to President Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, is also viewed as a potential 2028 contender.

Asked Tuesday to respond to Cruz’s latest remarks, Carlson brushed off the criticism in a brief text message. “Pretty funny,” he said. “He’s running for president against me, which I find amusing since I’m not in the race.”

Cruz has repeatedly attacked Carlson in recent months, including over Carlson’s decision to host white nationalist Nick Fuentes on his podcast without challenging Fuentes’ claim that the “big challenge” to unifying the country is “organized Jewry.”

The Texas senator has suggested that opposing antisemitism and strengthening support for Israel could be key elements of a possible presidential campaign. Speaking at the symposium Tuesday, he warned that the political landscape could shift in troubling ways if voices like Carlson’s gain greater influence.

“I don’t want to wake up in five years and find myself in a country where both major political parties are unambiguously antisemitic,” Cruz said. “I think that is a real possibility, if Tucker and his minions prevail.”

The two men have clashed repeatedly over Middle East policy and have been sparring publicly for months.

In June 2025, Carlson invited Cruz onto an episode of “The Tucker Carlson Show,” one of the most widely streamed podcasts on Spotify. During the interview, the two argued intensely about Iran, with Carlson accusing Cruz of lacking knowledge about the country.

Carlson said Cruz didn’t “know anything” about “the country you seek to topple.”

Cruz fired back during the exchange, suggesting Carlson’s criticism of Israel echoed antisemitic arguments.

“You’re not talking about the Chinese, you’re not talking about the Japanese, you’re not talking about the British, you’re not talking about the French,” Cruz told Carlson. “You’re asking, ‘why are the Jews controlling our foreign policy?’ That’s what you just asked.”

After the interview aired, Cruz used his own podcast, “Verdict with Ted Cruz,” to defend his performance and criticize Carlson’s conduct, saying the commentator had gone “off the rails.”

Later in November, while addressing the Republican Jewish Coalition’s leadership summit in Las Vegas, Cruz escalated the rhetoric further by calling Carlson a “coward.” Speaking days afterward at a Federalist Society event in Washington, he said some Republicans hesitate to challenge Carlson publicly because “he has one hell of a big megaphone.”

At Tuesday’s symposium, Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas appeared to dismiss the influence of what he described as internet personalities promoting antisemitic views. Although he did not mention Carlson by name, Cotton referred to “so-called influencers” spreading such ideas and minimized their impact.

“They are not influential,” Cotton said. “They are at least not influential with Donald Trump, who continues to reject their kooky advice.”

Despite criticism from many Republican leaders, Carlson’s views about Israel have gained traction among segments of younger conservatives. Recent polling highlights shifting attitudes, with a Yale Youth Poll showing Americans under 35 significantly more likely than older generations to believe that U.S. Jews “have too much power.” A Pew survey last year also found that the share of Republicans under 50 holding unfavorable views of Israel increased from 35 percent to 50 percent over the previous three years.

When asked whether he might seek the presidency in 2028, Carlson responded with a quip aimed directly at Cruz.

“Only if it’s against Cruz.”

{Matzav.com}

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