NOT LOOKING GOOD: Trio of Polls Show Zohran Mamdani With Varying Leads In Home Stretch of NYC Mayoral Race
As New York City’s mayoral race enters its final stretch, new polling paints a mixed but largely favorable picture for Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, who continues to lead Andrew Cuomo by varying margins across three major surveys — ranging from a narrow 10-point edge to a commanding 25-point advantage.
A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed the race tightening, with Mamdani ahead of Cuomo 43% to 33%, while Republican Curtis Sliwa trailed at 14%. That marks a modest gain for Cuomo, who had trailed by 13 points earlier this month before Mayor Eric Adams’ announcement that he would not seek re-election.
“Zohran Mamdani has a 10-point lead over Andrew Cuomo with Curtis Sliwa a distant third, but one wildcard remains. The percentage of likely voters not weighing in has increased a bit since earlier this month, suggesting there’s room for movement in the final stretch,” said Quinnipiac assistant director Mary Snow.
While Quinnipiac points to a closer contest, an Emerson College/Pix11/The Hill poll released Thursday morning found a far different outcome. In that survey, Mamdani surged to a dominant 25-point lead — 50% to 25% — over Cuomo, who is running as an independent candidate.
In the Emerson poll, Sliwa claimed 21% of the vote, nearly splitting the anti-Mamdani bloc between himself and Cuomo. That number marked a significant increase from the prior Emerson survey last month, when Sliwa stood at 10%. Over that same period, Mamdani’s support rose from 43% to 50%, while Cuomo slipped slightly from 28% to 25%.
Among Black voters, Mamdani’s backing skyrocketed from 50% to 71% since his primary victory over Cuomo, consolidating a crucial voting bloc that has become central to his campaign’s strength.
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion released its own poll Thursday morning showing a middle ground between the other two surveys — placing Mamdani at 48% and Cuomo at 32%, with Sliwa earning 16%.
“It’s Mamdani’s race to lose. Mamdani is in a strong position,” said Marist pollster Lee Miringoff, noting that Cuomo’s relentless attacks have failed to dent Mamdani’s popularity with voters.
According to Marist’s data, a majority of likely voters — 57% — view Mamdani favorably, while 55% of city voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Cuomo. “Cuomo is upside down,” Miringoff remarked.
The data also highlights a key dynamic: Mamdani is benefiting from the anti-Mamdani vote being split between Cuomo and Sliwa. In a head-to-head matchup without Sliwa, Mamdani leads Cuomo by only 7 points, 51% to 44%, according to Marist. Without Cuomo in the race, Mamdani dominates Sliwa 59% to 33%.
Mamdani’s appeal is particularly strong among younger voters, leading Cuomo 64% to 21% among those under 45. Cuomo, meanwhile, performs slightly better among voters over 45, with 39% to Mamdani’s 38%.
Ideologically, Mamdani dominates among liberals, while Cuomo performs better among moderates. Sliwa commands the support of 45% of conservative voters — outpacing both Mamdani and Cuomo in that demographic.
Among Jewish voters, Cuomo leads with 55% support, while Mamdani — despite his harsh criticism of Israel — secures the backing of roughly a third, according to the Marist findings.
The Emerson poll further revealed that those who already cast ballots early favored Mamdani by a 33-point margin, 58% to 25%. Among those yet to vote, Mamdani still leads, 45% to 26%.
Emerson surveyed 640 likely voters between October 25 and 27, with a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points. The Marist poll interviewed 792 likely voters from October 24 to 28 via phone, text, and online, with a margin of error of ±4.2 points. Quinnipiac’s survey covered 911 likely voters from October 23 to 27, with a ±4-point margin of error.
{Matzav.com}
