ELECTION NIGHT EXIT POLLS: UTJ Projected to Hold Seven Seats as Israeli Exit Poll Shows Netanyahu Bloc Short of Majority
Israel’s first election exit polls Tuesday night projected that United Torah Judaism would retain seven seats in the 26th Knesset, while Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and chareidi bloc would fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government.
The initial Channel 13 exit poll, released following the closing of polling stations at 10 p.m., gave United Torah Judaism seven mandates, matching its representation in the outgoing Knesset. The projection came after a tense Election Day during which party officials repeatedly warned that record voter turnout and competition from alternative chareidi lists could threaten the faction’s seventh seat.
The same exit poll projected 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, compared with 53 for the opposition parties associated with Gadi Eisenkot. The two Arab parties were projected to win a combined 17 seats, leaving neither of the principal political blocs with an outright parliamentary majority.
According to Channel 13’s initial projection, Likud emerged as the largest individual party with 25 seats, followed closely by Eisenkot’s Yashar party with 23.
The complete Channel 13 exit poll projected the following distribution of the Knesset’s 120 seats:
Political party Projected seats Likud — Binyamin Netanyahu 25 Yashar — Gadi Eisenkot 23 B’Yachad — Naftali Bennett 14 Joint Arab List 10 Democrats — Yair Golan 9 United Torah Judaism 7 Shas — Aryeh Deri 6 Ra’am — Mansour Abbas 7 Yisrael Beytenu — Avigdor Lieberman 7 Otzma Yehudit — Itamar Ben Gvir 6 Religious Zionism–Zehut — Bezalel Smotrich 6 Total 120The projections would leave Netanyahu’s bloc with 50 seats, including Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism–Zehut. The four principal opposition parties would collectively hold 53 seats, with the Arab parties accounting for the remaining 17.
For United Torah Judaism, the projection represents an important development following concerns throughout the day that unusually high participation elsewhere in the country could increase the number of votes needed to maintain its existing parliamentary strength.
In the 2022 election, UTJ received 280,194 votes and secured seven seats. Political estimates circulating Tuesday suggested that the party might require approximately 314,000 votes to retain that representation if nationwide turnout reached unusually high levels.
The Channel 13 exit poll indicates that UTJ may have retained its seventh mandate despite those concerns. However, the projection remains preliminary, and the final allocation will depend on the official count, including special double-envelope ballots.
Shas, meanwhile, was projected to receive six seats in the Channel 13 poll, compared with the 11 seats it won in the 2022 election. Such a result, if confirmed, would represent a substantial reduction in the party’s parliamentary representation.
The Channel 13 projection also showed that the smaller parties Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists–Economic Party had failed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold. Their exclusion would affect the distribution of Knesset seats among the parties that qualified for representation.
The projections also illustrate how the record voter turnout has affected the political landscape. By 8 p.m., 74.3% of eligible Israelis had already voted, surpassing the final participation rate in the 2022 election.
The high turnout prompted intense concern among chareidi political leaders throughout the day, with activists from Shas and United Torah Judaism conducting extensive last-minute voter mobilization efforts.
Prime Minister Netanyahu also issued a special appeal to chareidi voters Tuesday evening, warning that a government supported by Mansour Abbas and Ra’am could have serious consequences for the yeshiva world.
The initial exit poll does not resolve the question of who will form Israel’s next government. Although the opposition parties associated with Eisenkot are projected to hold more seats than Netanyahu’s bloc, neither grouping reaches the 61-seat majority required to govern independently.
The Arab parties, projected to control 17 seats, could therefore become an important factor in the political negotiations that follow the election.
The Channel 13 results also represent a significant change from the final pre-election surveys, particularly for Likud, which was projected to receive 19 seats in the network’s October 23 poll but 25 in Tuesday night’s exit poll.
For UTJ, the difference is smaller but politically significant. Channel 13’s final pre-election survey had projected eight seats for the party, while its election-night exit poll reduced that figure to seven.
Other television networks, including Channels 11, 12, and 14, also released exit polls Tuesday night. Their complete party-by-party election-night projections were not yet independently verified in the information available for this report, so the figures above reflect the confirmed Channel 13 projection rather than a composite of the networks.
The official vote count is now underway, with preliminary results expected to emerge throughout the night. Additional ballots, including those cast by soldiers and other voters using special double envelopes, will be counted separately.
The final allocation of seats could change as those votes are included, particularly for parties whose projected totals are close to the threshold for an additional mandate.
For United Torah Judaism, the immediate election-night projection is seven seats, but the party’s final representation will not be established until the Central Elections Committee completes the count.
