Kalshi Ripped Over ‘Deceptive’ and ‘Predatory’ Actions for Not Paying $54M After Iran Leader’s Death
Prediction market platform Kalshi is facing a class-action lawsuit accusing the company of refusing to pay out roughly $54 million to users who wagered that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would leave office before March 1, 2026.
Khamenei was killed on Saturday during joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed hundreds of people, including several senior Iranian officials.
Those attacks came after months of military buildup by the United States in the region.
According to the lawsuit, many Kalshi users were attracted to the company’s “Khamenei Market” because of rapidly changing geopolitical developments surrounding Iran.
The complaint claims that only after the Iranian leader was killed did Kalshi invoke a contractual “death carveout” clause in order to avoid paying bettors.
“With an American naval armada amassed on Iran’s doorstep and military conflict not merely foreseeable but widely anticipated, consumers understood that the most likely—and in many cases the only realistic—mechanism by which an 85-year-old autocratic leader would ‘leave office’ was through his death. Defendants understood this as well,” the lawsuit said.
The lawsuit argues that the market language made clear that Khamenei leaving office could occur through any circumstance, including death.
The wording, according to the complaint, was “clear, unambiguous and binary,” and the plaintiffs describe Kalshi’s conduct as “deceptive” and “predatory.”
Filed in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, the lawsuit also alleges that trading in the market continued even as reports about Khamenei’s death were beginning to spread.
Kalshi disputed the claims. A company spokesperson said the firm’s policies were consistent and clearly stated from the outset, explaining that the market rules “included every precaution …. to make sure people could not trade on the outcome of death.”
The spokesperson also said the company reimbursed users for fees and losses connected to the market.
“We even reimbursed all fees and net losses out of pocket — to the tune of millions of dollars — to make sure not a single person lost money on this market,” the spokesperson said.
Prediction markets have surged in popularity since the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when the real-time probabilities on such platforms proved more accurate than many traditional polls in predicting Donald Trump’s victory.
These markets allow users to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, covering topics that range from sporting events to political developments and economic indicators.
Typically, users purchase “yes” or “no” contracts priced between zero and 100 cents, with payouts triggered once the relevant outcome is officially confirmed.
{Matzav.com}
