Former PA Minister Reveals He Was Secret Intermediary Who Carried Sinwar’s “Earthquake” Warning Before Oct. 7
A former Palestinian Authority cabinet minister has publicly identified himself as the mysterious intermediary who says he carried an extraordinary warning from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to Israel just weeks before the October 7 massacre — a warning that reportedly included the word “earthquake” and a threat that Sinwar was preparing a major surprise.
Dr. Sufian Abu Zaida, a former senior Fatah official and PA minister for prisoner affairs, revealed in a video posted to Facebook that he was the man previously identified only by the pseudonym “Coal Eyes” in investigative reporting about intelligence and warnings that preceded the Hamas invasion of southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
“I am ‘Coal Eyes,’” Abu Zaida said, according to Israeli media reports, confirming for the first time his role in the secret contacts that took place in the weeks before the attack. Abu Zaida said he intends to disclose additional details in the coming days about the contacts and the message Sinwar asked him to transmit.
His disclosure adds a new, named source to reporting published earlier this month by Israeli journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval concerning warnings that allegedly reached senior Israeli officials before October 7.
According to that reporting, Sinwar met privately with Abu Zaida in Gaza in September 2023, at a time when Hamas and Israel were engaged in indirect discussions over a broader arrangement concerning Gaza.
The contacts reportedly involved efforts to secure the return of four Israelis then held in Gaza — the bodies of IDF soldiers Hadar Goldin and Oron Shaul, along with civilians Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed. In return, Hamas sought the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners as well as steps involving the blockade of Gaza and the territory’s electricity and water infrastructure.
Those discussions apparently stalled in the weeks before October 7. Sinwar subsequently disappeared from the regular channels through which Israeli officials had been following the negotiations.
A senior Shin Bet official told Haaretz that Sinwar had “vanished from our radar, evaporated.”
But Sinwar had not disappeared entirely.
According to the investigation, he met privately with Abu Zaida and instructed him to transmit an ominous message to the Israelis.
“Tell the Israelis if they don’t advance, I’m preparing a huge surprise for them,” Sinwar was quoted as saying.
Sinwar also reportedly used the Arabic word “zilzal” — meaning “earthquake” — to characterize what was coming.
Abu Zaida, a longtime Fatah figure who speaks fluent Hebrew and had extensive contacts with Israelis, reportedly understood the message as an unusually serious threat.
But he faced a dilemma over how to pass it along.
According to the account provided by Eldar, Abu Zaida feared contacting the Shin Bet directly. He was concerned both for his personal safety and that direct contact with Israeli intelligence could expose him to accusations of collaborating with Israel.
Instead, the warning was relayed through a Palestinian contact close to the leadership of the United Arab Emirates. Abu Zaida is politically associated with the camp of Mohammed Dahlan, the former senior Fatah official who has lived in the UAE and developed close ties to its leadership.
The warning reportedly made its way to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to the earlier investigation, Mohammed bin Zayed subsequently spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu roughly a week and a half before October 7 and warned him that Sinwar was planning a major operation that could destabilize the region.
The UAE has not publicly confirmed the details of the alleged conversation. Asked about the reporting, the Emirates said it “does not comment on media stories or speculation regarding conversations between government leaders.”
Netanyahu’s office, meanwhile, has strongly denied that the prime minister received such a warning from the UAE, making the question of what precisely reached Israel’s political leadership a matter of dispute. Abu Zaida’s newly released video identified him as the intermediary who received Sinwar’s message but, according to the Times of Israel, did not address the separate allegation concerning what Mohammed bin Zayed subsequently told Netanyahu.
There was reportedly another route by which the intelligence reached Israel.
Israeli reporting has said that information originating with the intermediary reached the Shin Bet in mid-September 2023. According to an N12 account of the investigation, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar recommended examining the possibility of preventive strikes in Gaza or substantially strengthening defenses along the Gaza border, but no operational decision followed from the discussions.
The information was also reportedly kept within a tightly restricted circle. As a result, senior IDF and Military Intelligence officials who were not privy to the intelligence could not combine Sinwar’s message with other warning signs that emerged ahead of October 7, N12 reported.
The precise meaning attributed to Sinwar’s “earthquake” warning at the time is also significant. Reporting by N12 said Israeli officials apparently misinterpreted some of the intelligence, believing it could relate to a possible transfer to Gaza of Elizabeth Tsurkov, the Israeli-Russian researcher who had been kidnapped in Iraq, rather than an imminent large-scale Hamas assault.
Weeks later, on the morning of October 7, thousands of Hamas-led terrorists stormed into southern Israel from Gaza, murdering approximately 1,200 people and abducting 251 hostages in the deadliest terrorist attack in Israeli history.
Abu Zaida, 66, was born in the Jabaliya refugee camp in Gaza and spent years as a prominent Fatah figure. He previously served as the Palestinian Authority’s minister for prisoner affairs and became well known in Israel because of his fluent Hebrew and frequent appearances in Israeli media. He is associated with Dahlan’s faction of Fatah and left Gaza for Egypt after the outbreak of the war.
His decision to reveal himself now puts a name and face to one of the more consequential claims to emerge from the continuing examination of the intelligence failures preceding October 7.
It also sharpens unresolved questions about how Sinwar’s warning was understood, who ultimately received it, and why the threat did not result in preparations sufficient to prevent the attack. Abu Zaida has said that additional details about his role in the secret contacts — including the message Sinwar personally asked him to convey to Israel — will be released in the coming days.
{Matzav.com}
