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The Counties that Picked the Winning President Every Election Since 2000
And then there were two.
Trivia question: What U.S. counties have voted for the winning presidential candidate every election this century?
Since 2000, what counties have voted in favor of the winning presidential candidate every time?
In 2000, 2,439 counties voted for Republican George W. Bush. And four years later, almost all of them, 2,372, voted for him again. (We are not counting here the places that voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 because they were already eliminated from voting for the winner every time.)
The party flip in 2008 to Democrat Barack Obama dramatically reduced the number of counties that had always picked the winner. Only 272 counties voted twice for Bush and then for Obama. And his reelection in 2012 cut that number even further: 129 counties voted Bush, Bush, Obama, Obama – or R-R-D-D.
Republican President Donald Trump’s 2016 election cut the number of “bellwether” perfect-record counties to 58, and the quick switch back to Democrat Joe Biden in 2024 reduced the counties picking the winner every time to a handful, just nine counties. They were Kent, Delaware; Clay, Minnesota; Blaine, Montana; Hillsborough, New Hampshire; Essex, New York; Saratoga, New York; Chesapeake, Virginia; Clallam, Washington and Door, Wisconsin.
From those nine that had voted Bush, Bush, Obama, Obama, Trump and then Biden, which picked Trump again in 2024?
The much easier question is how many counties just always vote the same way. Since 2000, 2,067 counties – two-thirds of the nation’s 3,125 counties – have voted Republican every time: Bush, Bush, McCain, Romney, Trump, Trump, Trump. An additional 318 have voted Democratic every time: Gore, Kerry, Obama, Obama, Clinton, Biden, Harris. As a note, we are not including Alaska, which doesn’t have counties, and the boroughs in their place are not how election results have consistently been reported. Also, a handful of other counties have gone away, and we merged their results.
The vast majority of counties always vote the same way. The handful of bellwethers are extremely rare places that are narrowly balanced. At that point, it’s pretty much a coin flip on who will win there each time. So picking seven winners is like flipping heads on a coin seven times in a row – that’s 1 out of 128.
Of the nine candidate counties, how many went for Trump in 2024? Door, Wisconsin? No, Harris won there with 10,564 to Trump’s 10,098 – a win by 466 votes, or 50.6 percent to 48.3 percent. I won’t step through them all, but Clay in Minnesota was won by Harris 16,121 to 15,965, or 49.2 percent to 48.8 percent.
Essex, New York, was equally close at 50.2 percent to 49.8 percent – but in Trump’s favor, maintaining the county’s streak of always picking the winner. In this case, by 72 votes. Meanwhile, 174 voters there wrote in someone else, waiving their chance to affect the winner. So that’s one county that kept the streak alive. Any others?
Blaine, Montana, gave Trump 1,501 votes to Harris’s 1,303, a 198-vote win, 51 percent to 44.2 percent.
And then there were two.
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(c) Washington Post
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Judge Blocks Louisiana from Requiring Schools to Display Ten Commandments
A federal judge has temporarily blocked a Louisiana law that would require every public school classroom in the state to display the Ten Commandments, calling the law “unconstitutional in all applications.”
U.S. District Judge John deGravelles issued a preliminary injunction Tuesday barring the state from enforcing the law, which had ordered schools to comply by Jan. 1. DeGravelles wrote that the law was “coercive,” unconstitutionally pressuring students to observe or venerate a scripture from a religion favored by the state.
He rejected the state’s claim that it could mandate displaying the Ten Commandments because it is a “historically significant document.”
In June, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) signed the law, believed to be the first of its kind in the country since 1980, when a more moderate U.S. Supreme Court ruled that a similar Kentucky law was unconstitutional.
“If you want to respect the rule of law, you’ve got to start from the original lawgiver, which was Moses,” Landry said at the bill-signing ceremony. He had said days before the signing that he “can’t wait to be sued.”
A coalition of civil liberty groups and nine Louisiana families of various faiths filed suit shortly afterward, arguing that the law known as H.B. 71 violated provisions under the First Amendment that prevent the government from establishing a religion or interfering with the free exercise of religion. The plaintiffs, some of whom are individuals who observe Unitarian Universalist traditions, argued that Louisiana’s law favors Christianity above all others.
“We strongly disagree with the court’s decision and will immediately appeal as H.B. 71’s implementation deadline is approaching January 1, 2025,” Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill (R) said in a statement on the ruling, according to local media outlets.
(c) Washington Post
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Report: How Trump Won Pennsylvania’s Amish Vote
Based on a NY Post report: About 100 miles to the west of Washington D.C., in a rural part of Pennsylvania, lies a collection of small businesses and community networks that were instrumental in securing the state for President-elect Donald Trump in the 2024 election. For nearly ten years, Republicans have been making efforts to reach an often-overlooked group — the Amish — by working tirelessly to register voters from this demographic, all while navigating the scents of fresh manure and the aroma of homemade shoofly pie.
Despite these efforts, voter turnout had been disappointingly low for years, a phenomenon that puzzled outsiders but was obvious to those familiar with the community. The issue? Election Day happens on a Tuesday — the same day many Amish weddings take place.
The Amish, a deeply religious and rural group, traditionally schedule their weddings only on Tuesdays and Thursdays in the fall, aligning with the start of the harvest season.
To address this, local Republicans devised a plan: they would provide car rides directly from Amish weddings to the polling stations, ensuring that voters wouldn’t miss the chance to cast their ballots.
“This was a missionary effort to reach an unreached people,” explained Liesa Burwell-Perry, an active church member and wife of a teacher, when speaking with The Post. “This is about neighbors helping neighbors.”
By her estimate, 200 local volunteers managed to transport around 26,000 Amish people to the polls, significantly boosting voter turnout and marking one of the highest turnout rates the region has seen in years.
The initiative began days ahead of Election Day when Burwell-Perry quickly created a flyer containing phone numbers for free rides to the polls, launching “Operation Help Thy Neighbor” from her church basement in Bainbridge.
Having lived in the area for many years, Burwell-Perry understood that Amish weddings typically run from dawn until dusk, with only a brief break between church services. This limited timeframe meant that attendees often had little opportunity to vote, especially given the time-consuming travel via horse-drawn carriage.
Armed with this insight — and a great deal of prayer — Burwell-Perry spent her November mortgage payment to print 10,000 copies of her flyer and paid locals to deliver them to Amish farms or slip them into buggies across southern Pennsylvania, home to the largest Amish population in the state.
Elon Musk’s America PAC eventually offered to reimburse her, even providing Burwell-Perry with 30 computers and a Starlink device to establish a call center in her church basement.
By the morning of November 5, Burwell-Perry had assembled and vetted 200 drivers and gathered a team of phone bank volunteers to assist. However, the real challenge lay in locating the weddings.
Amish weddings, much like their church services, are usually held in farmhouses, with the locations kept tightly secret. Fathers of the brides traditionally announce the wedding details to churchgoers by word-of-mouth only.
With the help of some Amish neighbors, Burwell-Perry discovered a few weddings taking place on Election Day. She enlisted Brenda Biesecker Clair and Joe Goody, residents of Lancaster County, to act as scouts, seeking out Amish families dressed in their Sunday best — a surefire sign they were headed to a wedding.
Once a wedding was located, Biesecker Clair and Goody would offer rides, and then report the wedding addresses back to Burwell-Perry, who would dispatch additional drivers from her team, which included Mennonite and Amish volunteers.
Biesecker Clair described the experience as “a modern-day miracle.”
“If a load [of Amish] got out of my car at a wedding, they would be like, ‘Can you wait here a minute?’ and they would say, ‘I’m gonna go tell my brother,’” she recalled. “And then the brother would come out with his wife and her sister and husband.”
“And it just went on like that all day.”
So how did a group of people so committed to humility that they don’t even put faces on their daughters’ dolls align with a former reality TV star and real estate mogul-turned-president?
According to many Amish, Mennonite, and ex-Amish individuals who spoke with The Post, the common ground lay in their shared values, such as limited government and religious freedom, which closely aligned with Republican campaign platforms.
For 28-year-old John Henry Smucker, who grew up on an Amish dairy farm, it was Trump’s anti-establishment stance that resonated most. Smucker recalled how his family’s farm was frequently raided by the FDA, seeking out raw milk products.
“My dad was a farmer who sold all his own products from the farm, so we made cottage cheese, ice cream, yogurt, and we sold raw milk,” he told The Post. “And so I experienced the government overreach myself. We would get raided. We never got stuff taken out, but we would get threats.”
“I’d see this stuff going on and I said, you know, a responsible American citizen should know if they want to drink raw milk or not. You know, they put so many pesticides and you know, poison into our food, and they want to tell me that this stuff that’s good for us is illegal? So, yeah, so that was a big deal to me growing up, and it did shape my leanings my conservative.”
This very issue had stirred many in Lancaster County earlier in the year when Amos Miller Organic Farm, one of the area’s largest, was targeted by the FDA. Investigators seized thousands of dollars worth of raw milk and other goods, such as granola, which Miller sold.
The incident galvanized the Amish community, many of whom felt that government overreach had gone too far.
“You’ll hear people say a lot that they ‘vote with their knees,’” one Amish woman who wished to remain anonymous told The Post. “They don’t want to be involved with the government and just want to be left alone. But now, the government has come for us.”
Smucker agreed, adding: “If these groups wish to keep the freedom they have to gather in places, not in secret, and continue to live their Christian freedoms, they have to voice their opinion and their beliefs in not only elections, or not only in federal elections, but especially local elections.”
Elon Musk acknowledged this sentiment during an interview with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson.
“The Democrats did make a mistake because there was government overreach … that shut down some Amish farmers, which really made them upset,” the Tesla, X, and SpaceX CEO said. “And you just need to be able to channel that, the fact that they’re upset, like, ‘Well, there’s a thing you can do about it, which is called voting, and we’re happy to transport.’”
Other issues that resonated with Amish voters included restrictions on abortion and the growing trend of gender transition surgeries for children.
When Burwell-Perry’s volunteers arrived, they were met with enthusiasm.
“It was like shooting fish in a barrel,” said Levi King, a former Amish who now works as a volunteer. “So many wanted to vote.”
“Voting is the one thing you can do to preserve this way of life.”
Pennsylvania is home to over 90,000 Amish people, with about half eligible to vote, according to the Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies at Elizabethtown College.
Before 2024, it was estimated that only around 10% of Amish voters cast their ballots.
While national Republicans were aware of the Amish’s potential to sway the vote, their lack of insight into the community hindered their outreach efforts.
“In 2016 and 2020, local party activists who registered Amish voters made claims that turned out to be much greater than the reality turned out to be,” said Steven Nolt, a professor of history and Anabaptist studies at Elizabethtown College.
Trump himself fell victim to the same misjudgment during a rally in Lancaster County on November 3, when he remarked that he had not seen any Amish in the crowd. The audience responded, chanting: “It’s Sunday! They’re at church!”
The Amish alone didn’t give Trump Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes. As of Monday evening, Trump was leading Vice President Kamala Harris by just over 144,000 votes, with nearly all votes counted.
“For one thing, the entire Amish adult population in York, Dauphin, and Lebanon counties combined is only about 1,300 people,” Nolt said. “And even if 100% of Lancaster’s eligible voters were registered and had a 100% turn-out rate, that would only be about 18,000 [Amish].”
While the exact number of Amish voters is still being tallied, early data suggests a marked increase in turnout from Amish-heavy, rural Pennsylvania counties.
In Lancaster, Chester, Lebanon, Dauphin, and York counties, the vote count rose by 27,080 ballots, a 2.56% increase in total votes from the region.
Local activists believe this increase in rural votes should not be underestimated. On Monday, Burwell-Perry was already knocking on doors and visiting barns to register even more Amish voters for the next election.
{Matzav.com}
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Pentagon Secrets Leaker Jack Teixeira Sentenced To 15 Years In Prison By A Federal Judge
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Pentagon Leaker Jack Teixeira Sentenced To 15 Years In Prison
Jack Teixeira, a former member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, was sentenced to 15 years in prison on Tuesday for illegally obtaining classified materials from the Pentagon and distributing them online, as confirmed by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for Massachusetts.
The sentence was handed down by Judge Indira Talwani in the U.S. District Court for the District of Massachusetts.
Earlier this year, in March, Teixeira pleaded guilty to six charges related to the unauthorized retention and transmission of national defense information under the Espionage Act. His arrest took place in North Dighton, Massachusetts, in April 2023, and he has been in federal detention since mid-May 2023.
Court filings reveal that Teixeira copied confidential documents and distributed them via Discord, an online platform popular with gamers. His document-sharing activities reportedly began around 2022.
One of the documents he is accused of leaking included sensitive details regarding the provision of military aid to Ukraine, while another covered a foreign nation’s plans to target U.S. forces stationed overseas, according to prosecutors.
Teixeira joined the Air National Guard in 2019 and attained the rank of airman first class. He was stationed at Otis Air National Guard Base on Cape Cod, where his role involved working as a cyber transport systems journeyman.
He was able to access the classified materials because he had been granted a top-secret security clearance around July 2021 and had received specific training on classified information, including its various levels and the correct procedures for handling it, as indicated in the indictment.
Although the documents surfaced online in March 2023, prosecutors state that Teixeira had been sharing the classified content since January of that same year.
{Matzav.com}
Katz: ‘There Will Be No Ceasefire and No Pause’ in Lebanon
“There will be no ceasefire and no pause” in the fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said on Tuesday.
Following his first meeting on Monday with the IDF General Staff Forum, Katz tweeted, “The impressive and powerful actions carried out by the IDF and security forces against Hezbollah, including the elimination of Nasrallah, represent a victory image, and it is essential to continue offensive operations to further degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and fully capitalize on the gains of this victory.”
Katz replaced Yoav Gallant as defense minister on Nov. 7, having previously served as Israel’s foreign minister.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut on Sept. 27.
“In Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire and no pause. We will continue to strike Hezbollah with full force until our war objectives are achieved,” Katz continued.
“Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not secure its right to independently enforce and prevent terrorism, achieve its war objectives in Lebanon, disarm Hezbollah, push them back beyond the Litani River, and allow northern residents to safely return to their homes,” he wrote.
With regard to Hezbollah’s backer Tehran, he tweeted: “Iran is more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities. We have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal—to thwart and eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel.”
His comments come amid reports of an emerging ceasefire agreement that would include the IDF having the right to respond to violations, Hezbollah withdrawing north of the Litani River, the Lebanese army dismantling the remaining terror infrastructure and the United States and Russia providing guarantees against Hezbollah rearming.
Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer visited Russia last week amid the Lebanon ceasefire efforts, according to Israel’s Army Radio. Dermer met with U.S. president-elect Donald Trump at his Florida estate on Sunday, Axios reported on Monday, citing two Israeli officials and two U.S. officials.
An Israeli official said that Dermer conveyed messages from Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu to Trump and discussed Israel’s plans in Lebanon and Gaza and against Iran, as well as Israeli-Saudi normalization.
“One of the things the Israelis wanted to sort out with Trump is what are the issues he prefers to see solved before January 20 and what are the issues he prefers the Israelis to wait for him [on],” a U.S. official told Axios.
Dermer also reportedly met with Trump’s son-in-law and former senior advisor Jared Kushner.
The Biden administration was notified before the Trump visit, and Dermer arrived in Washington on Monday for visits with senior U.S. officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
Dermer is also expected to meet with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Biden’s advisers Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein.
U.S. officials told Axios that Netanyahu signaled to the Biden administration that he wants the war in Lebanon to end within weeks but that Washington and Jerusalem have yet to agree on the wording of a letter that would include the U.S. commitment that Israel would be allowed to take military action in Lebanon if it believes Hezbollah is rearming and reestablishing itself in the border area.
A U.S. official said that Hochstein and the Israelis had exchanged several drafts in recent days but hadn’t yet reached an agreement.
“We just have a couple more things to work through with the Israeli side, but we are almost done,” the official said.
Reuters reported on Monday that Hezbollah has not received an official ceasefire proposal.
“So far, according to my information, nothing official has reached Lebanon or us in this regard,” the head of the Iranian terror proxy’s media office, Mohammad Afif, said in a news conference in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
“I believe that we are still in the phase of testing the waters and presenting initial ideas and proactive discussions, but so far there is nothing actual yet,” he added.
“There is no agreement at the moment. We think that deal is coming together, but like anything, [nothing’s] done until it’s done,” a U.S. official told Axios.
(JNS)
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Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani, missing one eye and with his left hand bandaged, met with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran on Tuesday ahead of his return to his post in Beirut.
Amani was wounded in Israel’s beeper operation against Lebanon’s Hezbollah terrorist group. He was taken to Tehran for treatment, according to Mehr News Agency, a semi-official news organ of the Islamic Republic.
Thousands of pagers exploded on Sept. 17 across Hezbollah‘s terrorist strongholds in Lebanon. A day later, hundreds of Hezbollah walkie-talkies exploded. The attacks killed 39 people and wounded some 3,000.
A video published by Iranian news outlets in the chaotic aftermath of the attack showed Amani on a street in Beirut, his eyes covered with bandages and the front of his white shirt covered in blood.
According to Iranian media reports, two of Amani’s bodyguards were also wounded when their pagers exploded.
One Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps member said the pagers beeped for about 10 seconds before exploding, prompting some to put the pagers close to their faces to check for a message.
Yerushalayim for weeks declined to comment on the pager blasts—the first wave of which came hours after the Israeli Cabinet added the return of displaced northern residents to their homes to the country’s official war goals.
Not until Nov. 10 did Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu confirm that Yerushalayim was responsible for the operation.
(JNS)