Trump Economist Predicts ‘Biggest Refund Cycle Ever,’ Massive Checks Ahead
Amid widespread unease over household finances, a top economic adviser viewed as a leading candidate to chair the Federal Reserve says the administration anticipates a surge in tax refunds and stronger paychecks next year, arguing that improving data will soon be felt by families.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett outlined those expectations during an appearance Thursday on FOX Business’ Varney & Co., predicting an unprecedented refund season.
“We are going to see the biggest refund cycle ever in the history of America, and people are going to get massive refund checks,” Hassett said.
He added that the magnitude of the refunds could be substantial.
“We’re expecting just that part of it alone to be worth a couple-thousand-dollar refund … the numbers are striking.”
Earlier in the week, Donald Trump echoed that outlook during a Wednesday night address, saying the administration expects “the largest tax refund season of all time” next spring and asserting that many households would save between $11,000 and $20,000 per year.
Hassett also addressed recent polling that paints a more pessimistic picture of the economy. A Fox News Poll found that 44% of respondents say they are falling behind financially, while 74% describe economic conditions as “not so good” or “bad.” He argued that wage growth and inflation trends tell a different story.
“You saw in the jobs report that … wages for the typical worker were up 3.7%. So if you’re running 3.7% wage increases at 1.6% core inflation, then real wages are growing at a rate of about 2 [to] 2.5%. By our estimates right now, blue-collar workers have already seen an almost $2,000 raise this year after inflation, because wages are growing so much faster than prices,” Hassett explained.
Speaking later on FOX Business’ The Big Money Show, Hassett suggested that the benefits of recent policy moves may take time to show up in tax filings, recalling a similar lag during the administration’s earlier legislative push.
“I think that what happens in the end — and this is what happened in the first [Trump] term — is that people will see it in their wallets,” he said. “We didn’t pass the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ until the middle of the summer. And so a lot of the tax changes, which affect last year, weren’t in any tax forms that people filled out at the beginning of the year.”
Overall, Hassett struck an upbeat note on economic conditions, pointing to what he called a “blockbuster” November inflation report that came in cooler than analysts expected. He said supply-side growth is now exerting downward pressure on prices.
“What’s happened is, as we predicted throughout this term, that if you really put the pedal to the metal on aggregate supply, then that’s gonna put downward pressure on prices,” he said.
He concluded by drawing a parallel to earlier performance under President Trump, when growth and inflation appeared to settle into a favorable balance.
“And don’t forget, that’s where we were last time in President Trump’s first term. We were growing in the 3% range, and we had inflation in the 1% range. And it looks like that’s where we are again.”
{Matzav.com}
