320,000 VOTES OR BUST: United Torah Judaism Sets Ambitious Election Target Amid Chareidi Voter Apathy and Competition From Right-Wing Parties
United Torah Judaism has set a target of 320,000 votes in Israel’s upcoming Knesset elections, seeking to increase its support by approximately 40,000 votes despite indications of widespread political apathy among chareidi voters and growing competition from parties to its right.
Party officials believe that the apparent lack of enthusiasm in the chareidi community does not necessarily indicate a decline in support. Instead, they are counting on a familiar pattern from previous elections, in which political interest and voter mobilization intensify during the final days before Israelis head to the polls.
According to sources, the party intends to launch its main election campaign toward the end of the coming week, gradually increasing its activity as the November 3 election approaches.
Campaign strategists believe that the final ten days to two weeks before an election are generally the period when political activity within the chareidi community reaches its peak. They are therefore concentrating much of their effort on that window, rather than interpreting the current quiet as a sign of an impending electoral setback.
The party’s ambitions, however, extend beyond simply encouraging its traditional supporters to vote. Its leadership is also seeking to broaden its electoral base and regain the support of chareidi voters whose allegiance to United Torah Judaism has weakened in recent years.
In the election for the 25th Knesset, United Torah Judaism received approximately 280,000 votes. Party officials believe that natural population growth within the chareidi community provides an opportunity to raise that figure to 320,000 in the upcoming election.
Achieving that increase would require the party to secure roughly 40,000 additional votes, a challenge that involves both maintaining its established voter base and reaching individuals who have become less committed to supporting the party.
The campaign is expected to rely heavily on communications platforms widely used within the chareidi community, including email distribution lists, chareidi news websites, telephone news hotlines, and community-oriented blogs.
By contrast, social media platforms such as TikTok are expected to receive considerably less attention. Party strategists believe those platforms are less effective for reaching the party’s core constituency than the established media channels serving chareidi households.
The party is also examining internal polling that suggests the ongoing controversy over the drafting of bnei yeshivos into the IDF has not necessarily weakened support among younger chareidi voters.
According to surveys commissioned by United Torah Judaism, some younger voters have actually become more supportive of the party amid the draft crisis, reflecting feelings of persecution and a growing identification with efforts to defend the yeshiva world.
Those findings have provided some encouragement to party officials concerned that the arrests of bnei yeshivos and the broader confrontation over military service could generate frustration with the chareidi political establishment.
At the same time, United Torah Judaism officials acknowledge that they face competition from right-wing and Religious Zionist parties, particularly those led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Some younger chareidi voters have expressed an affinity for the strongly nationalist positions promoted by those parties, creating a challenge for United Torah Judaism as it attempts to retain voters who identify with the chareidi community but are also attracted to the broader political right.
Party strategists recognize that even a relatively modest shift of younger voters toward Ben-Gvir or Smotrich could complicate their efforts to reach the 320,000-vote target.
United Torah Judaism’s approach is based on the assessment that many chareidi voters, even those who identify politically with the broader right, ultimately place considerable importance on representation that addresses the specific concerns of their communities.
Among the issues central to the party’s agenda are the status of bnei yeshivos, government support for chareidi educational institutions, and the everyday needs of chareidi families. Party officials believe that voters will weigh the ability of their elected representatives to secure concrete results on these matters when deciding how to cast their ballots.
The campaign is taking place under the leadership of MK Yaakov Asher, who assumed the chairmanship of United Torah Judaism following a significant reshuffling of the party’s Knesset slate in September.
The leadership changes saw veteran MKs Moshe Gafni and Uri Maklev removed from the party’s candidate list, marking a substantial change in the leadership of Degel HaTorah. Asher, who has served in the Knesset since 2013 and previously chaired its Interior and Environmental Protection Committee, now heads the joint electoral list.
Asher has also been working to bridge divisions between chareidi communities, with party officials recognizing that internal unity will be an important factor in the party’s electoral performance.
The importance of that unity was underscored in a separate report in September, which indicated that data presented to senior United Torah Judaism figures suggested an electoral potential of approximately 320,000 votes, equivalent to roughly eight and a half Knesset seats under the calculations being used at the time.
That assessment also highlighted concerns that internal divisions could make it difficult for the party to reproduce its previous election result, even with the continued growth of the chareidi population.
United Torah Judaism won seven seats in the outgoing Knesset. Its leadership is seeking to increase that representation while strengthening its position in negotiations over the formation of the next government.
The party’s broader objective is to regain a pivotal role in coalition negotiations, in which its Knesset seats could become important to a prospective government’s ability to assemble a parliamentary majority.
{Matzav.com}
