POLITICAL DEADLOCK: All the Possible Paths to Forming Israel’s Next Government
Israel is facing a difficult political stalemate following the elections for the 26th Knesset, with neither Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu nor opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot commanding the 61 seats needed to establish a governing coalition. The results have left both camps searching for potential partners, with the possibility of a broad unity government or another round of elections looming over the negotiations.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party emerged with 21 seats, making it the second-largest faction in the Knesset. Together with the Together alliance, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beytenu, the anti-Netanyahu camp controls 48 seats. If the eight members of Ra’am, the Islamist United Arab List, were to support Eisenkot, his potential parliamentary backing would rise to 56 seats.
Although that would give Eisenkot more support than Netanyahu’s existing coalition partners, it would still leave him five seats short of a majority. Moreover, assembling such an alliance would require cooperation among parties with sharply conflicting positions on fundamental political and security questions.
One of the principal obstacles is Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman, who has previously ruled out political arrangements dependent on Arab parties. Other members of the opposition have also expressed reservations about such cooperation, leaving considerable uncertainty over whether Eisenkot could assemble even a minority government supported by Ra’am from outside the coalition.
Netanyahu faces a different challenge. His bloc of right-wing and chareidi parties holds 53 seats, leaving him eight short of the 61 required for a majority.
One possibility would involve bringing Naftali Bennett’s seven-member faction, currently part of the joint Together alliance with Yair Lapid, into Netanyahu’s coalition. However, that arrangement would bring the prime minister to only 60 seats, still one short of a majority.
The same difficulty would arise if Netanyahu persuaded Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu, which also holds seven seats, to join his government. Such an agreement would not provide sufficient parliamentary support unless at least one additional Knesset member or faction joined.
A more substantial realignment could give Netanyahu the numbers he needs. If the entire 12-seat Together alliance agreed to enter his coalition, his bloc would expand to 65 seats, providing a workable majority.
Such an arrangement, however, would require major political concessions. Bennett and Lapid have significant disagreements with Netanyahu and his current coalition partners, and any agreement would likely involve demands concerning government policy, ministerial appointments, and the composition of the coalition.
Netanyahu could consequently face pressure to exclude some of his traditional allies, including chareidi parties, as a condition for securing the participation of opposition factions. That would represent a major political reversal and could generate considerable opposition within Likud and the existing right-wing bloc.
Another possibility being discussed is a national unity government involving Likud and Eisenkot’s Yashar party. With Likud holding 26 seats and Yashar controlling 21, the two factions together would command 47 seats, creating the foundation for a potentially broad coalition if additional parties agreed to participate.
Negotiating such an agreement would nevertheless present substantial challenges, particularly over the identity of the prime minister, the distribution of senior cabinet positions, and differences in policy between the two parties.
Reports have suggested that Netanyahu is considering a power-sharing arrangement with Eisenkot that could include a rotation of the premiership. No agreement has been announced, and it remains uncertain whether either leader would accept the concessions necessary to make such a deal possible.
The election results have therefore produced an unusual political balance. Eisenkot could potentially assemble a larger grouping of supporters if Ra’am agreed to cooperate, but would still lack a majority. Netanyahu retains a more cohesive bloc, yet cannot cross the 61-seat threshold merely by recruiting one of the seven-seat opposition factions.
The coming negotiations will determine whether either leader can persuade political rivals to abandon longstanding commitments and enter a new coalition arrangement. Should those efforts fail, Israel could face another election without having resolved the divisions that produced the current impasse.
Additional reporting Thursday indicated that the political divisions were already affecting negotiations. Liberman reiterated that he would not join a government headed by Netanyahu or one dependent on Arab parties, while Eisenkot and Bennett met to discuss possibilities for establishing an alternative coalition.
President Isaac Herzog has urged political leaders to consider compromise rather than force Israelis back to the polls. The official election results are scheduled to be certified on November 4, after which Herzog will begin consultations with the parties before assigning a candidate the task of forming a government.
{Matzav.com}
