Israel’s election results continued to shift Wednesday as the official ballot count advanced, with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and Chareidi bloc projected to receive 54 Knesset seats, seven short of the majority needed to form a government, while the rival bloc associated with Gadi Eisenkot stood at 49 seats and the two Arab parties held a combined 17.
According to the latest figures released by Israel’s Central Elections Committee, 77.6 percent of the vote had been counted, providing the clearest picture yet of Tuesday’s closely contested election for the 26th Knesset. The results remained preliminary, however, with hundreds of thousands of ballots still awaiting processing and the final distribution of seats subject to change.
The latest figures represent a significant development from the early hours of Wednesday, when partial results initially gave Netanyahu’s bloc as many as 56 seats. As counting progressed, that figure declined to 54, while the balance between Eisenkot’s bloc and the Arab parties continued to fluctuate.
The most recent seat projections, based on the official partial count, give Netanyahu’s Likud party 27 seats, making it the largest faction in the Knesset, followed by Eisenkot’s Yashar party with 22. Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party is projected to receive 12 seats, while the Arab Joint List stands at 11.
The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, are projected to receive eight seats, while Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu is at seven.
Among the Chareidi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism are each projected to win seven seats, giving them a combined 14 seats. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, is also projected to receive seven seats, while the Religious Zionism-Zehut alliance stands at six. Ra’am, headed by Mansour Abbas, is projected to win six seats.
The projected distribution of the Knesset’s 120 seats is as follows:
Likud, led by Binyamin Netanyahu: 27 seats.
Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot: 22 seats.
Beyachad, led by Naftali Bennett: 12 seats.
Joint Arab List: 11 seats.
Democrats, led by Yair Golan: 8 seats.
Shas: 7 seats.
United Torah Judaism: 7 seats.
Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats.
Yisrael Beytenu: 7 seats.
Religious Zionism-Zehut: 6 seats.
Ra’am: 6 seats.
Under the current projections, Netanyahu’s bloc holds 54 seats, Eisenkot’s bloc has 49, and the Arab parties have a combined 17. A majority of 61 seats is required to form a government.
For Netanyahu, the results present a complicated political situation. Although Likud remains the largest individual party, the combined strength of the parties generally identified with his bloc falls short of a parliamentary majority. Unless the remaining votes substantially change the seat allocation, he would need additional support from outside his established political alliance to form a government.
Eisenkot faces a different but equally difficult challenge. His bloc’s projected 49 seats would also leave him short of a majority, meaning any attempt to assemble an alternative government would require support or cooperation from additional parties.
The 17 seats currently projected for the Joint List and Ra’am could therefore play an important role in determining the next government’s composition, although their combined representation does not automatically translate into support for an Eisenkot-led coalition.
The uncertainty was compounded by dramatic differences among the television networks’ election-night exit polls, particularly Channel 14’s projection of a right-wing majority.
Channel 14’s updated exit poll, prepared by pollster Shlomo Filber, projected 62 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc after placing Yisrael Beytenu below the electoral threshold. That scenario differed sharply from the projections issued by Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13, which indicated that neither major political camp had secured a majority without the Arab parties.
The subsequent official count has so far diverged from Channel 14’s projection, with Yisrael Beytenu currently projected to enter the Knesset with seven seats and Netanyahu’s bloc standing at 54.
The election also produced a sharp contrast between the established Chareidi parties’ performance in the exit polls and their standing in the official count.
Shas, which won 11 seats in 2022, is currently projected to receive seven, a decline of four seats. United Torah Judaism, which won seven seats in the previous election, is also projected to receive seven, leaving it at its previous level.
Together, the two parties would control 14 seats, compared with 18 in the outgoing Knesset. Their combined representation would therefore decline by four seats if the current projections hold.
The results are particularly significant because the election campaign was dominated in part by the continuing controversy over the military draft of yeshiva bochurim, the future of Torah institutions, and the government’s handling of legislation intended to protect full-time Torah study.
Both Shas and United Torah Judaism faced criticism during the campaign over their handling of the draft crisis, while alternative Chareidi political movements sought to attract voters dissatisfied with the established parties.
The Chareidi Public Party, one of those alternative lists, was receiving approximately 0.2 percent of the vote in the partial count, far below the 3.25 percent threshold required to enter the Knesset. The Reservists Party was also below the threshold, at approximately 2.6 to 2.7 percent, while the People of Israel list stood at approximately 1.6 to 1.7 percent.
The final vote totals for these smaller parties could still be politically significant, even if they fail to win representation, because votes for parties below the threshold are excluded when Knesset seats are allocated.
The emerging political situation has already prompted discussion about whether the Chareidi parties might consider participating in a government not headed by Netanyahu.
According to a report by Channel 12, figures within Shas have not completely ruled out cooperation with Eisenkot, particularly if a future government advances an acceptable arrangement concerning yeshiva conscription.
“If there is a reasonable conscription law, perhaps we will join later,” a Shas source was quoted as saying.
Eisenkot has previously expressed opposition to including Chareidi parties in his coalition under the conditions they have advocated. Nevertheless, the election’s uncertain outcome has brought renewed attention to the possibility of alternative political arrangements.
The Arab parties, meanwhile, have emerged with considerably greater parliamentary representation than in the previous Knesset.
The Joint List and Ra’am are currently projected to win a combined 17 seats, compared with approximately 10 seats in the outgoing Knesset. Their increased strength reflects exceptionally high participation among Arab voters, with reports indicating turnout of approximately 80 percent in the Arab community.
The increased representation has already generated debate over whether parties opposed to Netanyahu should cooperate with Arab factions in an effort to assemble a governing majority.
Yair Golan, chairman of the Democrats, has called for the formation of an alternative government, while representatives of the Joint List have indicated their willingness to participate in discussions aimed at replacing Netanyahu’s administration.
Netanyahu, however, has strongly opposed the formation of a government dependent on Arab parties, arguing in his election-night address that Israel should instead establish a right-wing government.
Speaking to Likud supporters in Yerushalayim in the early hours of Wednesday, Netanyahu emphasized his party’s position as the largest faction in the Knesset and called for the formation of a broad right-wing coalition.
He also pointed to Israel’s military operations over the past several years and its cooperation with the United States, particularly regarding Iran.
“Israel has a unique opportunity with our partner President Trump to forever eliminate the existential threat of Iran,” Netanyahu said.
Eisenkot, addressing his own supporters in Tel Aviv, offered a sharply different interpretation of the election, arguing that voters had expressed a desire for new political leadership.
“The people decided in favor of change,” Eisenkot declared.
He also warned Netanyahu against using national security developments for political purposes during the period of uncertainty surrounding the formation of the next government.
President Donald Trump also weighed in on the Israeli election Wednesday, saying he had heard that Netanyahu had performed well and suggesting that his endorsement of the prime minister had helped change the political momentum.
“I’m hearing that he did very well,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.
“I actually heard he did pretty well,” he added, while acknowledging that it was still early to draw definitive conclusions from the results.
Trump also posted a message on Truth Social crediting his endorsement with helping Netanyahu avoid what he described as a potential electoral defeat.
The election was also marked by extraordinarily high voter participation.
According to the Central Elections Committee, turnout reached approximately 77.7 percent, the highest level since 1999 and an increase of 7.1 percentage points over the 2022 election.
Nearly 5.7 million Israelis cast ballots, reflecting the intensity of the political contest and the high level of public interest in the country’s future leadership.
The IDF reported that 79.9 percent of eligible military personnel participated in the election, an increase of approximately 6.2 percentage points compared with the previous vote. More than 890 military polling stations operated across Israel and in military units, including mobile polling stations intended to accommodate soldiers serving in operational positions.
The military vote could become particularly important in the final stages of counting.
Ballots cast by soldiers and other voters using special double-envelope procedures are processed separately from ordinary ballots, with additional verification required to prevent duplicate voting.
These votes, along with remaining ballots from regular polling stations, could affect the final distribution of seats, particularly for parties hovering near the electoral threshold or competing for the final mandates allocated under Israel’s proportional representation system.
The Central Elections Committee has emphasized that the figures released Wednesday are provisional and that the final results will not be known until the remaining ballots have been counted and verified.
The counting process could continue until Thursday or Friday, meaning the current parliamentary breakdown may still change.
Once the results are finalized, President Isaac Herzog will begin the process of determining which Knesset member should be entrusted with attempting to form the next government.
Under Israel’s parliamentary system, the presidency does not automatically assign the task to the leader of the largest party. Instead, the president consults representatives of the elected factions and considers which candidate has the strongest parliamentary support for forming a coalition.
That distinction could prove especially consequential if neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot emerges with a clear majority.
For now, Israel remains without a definitive electoral outcome, with Netanyahu’s bloc holding a numerical advantage over Eisenkot’s bloc but neither side possessing the 61 seats required to govern independently.
The remaining ballots, the eventual positions of the Chareidi parties, and the willingness of rival factions to negotiate with one another will determine whether the election produces a new government, an unconventional coalition arrangement, or a prolonged political deadlock.
As Wednesday’s counting continued, the central question was no longer simply which party had received the most votes, but whether any political leader could assemble the parliamentary majority necessary to lead Israel’s next government.
{Matzav.com}