China Threat Growing: Xi Expanding Nuclear Warhead Production
Satellite imagery and expert assessments reviewed by The Washington Post indicate that China has been quietly but dramatically ramping up its ability to produce nuclear warheads, modernizing sensitive weapons facilities and expanding output at a pace unmatched by any other country.
According to the report, Beijing appears to have moved beyond a long-standing strategy centered on maintaining a limited nuclear deterrent. Analysts now believe Chinese planners are preparing for quicker and more assertive nuclear responses, a shift that could significantly heighten tensions in a future clash with the United States and allied nations.
Independent experts who examined satellite photos told the Post that since around 2019, China has carried out extensive upgrades at several locations connected to nuclear warhead manufacturing. The work spans multiple stages of the production process, from core components to explosive triggers.
Among the most significant expansions are at facilities believed to produce plutonium pits, the central element of a nuclear warhead, as well as plants that manufacture the high explosives used to initiate a detonation. One analyst described the scope of the transformation in stark terms. “The scale of change we’re seeing is unlike anything before,” said Renny Babiarz.
Despite these advances, recent Pentagon assessments estimate that China’s existing stockpile remains in the low 600s. Defense officials, however, say the trajectory is clear, with projections indicating Beijing could surpass 1,000 warheads by the end of the decade.
President Donald Trump has publicly warned that China could come close to matching U.S. nuclear capabilities within five years, reflecting growing alarm in Washington over Beijing’s long-term strategic aims.
Even so, specialists emphasize that China is not expected to rival the approximately 3,700 warheads held by the United States in the near future. What concerns analysts more is the speed and breadth of the buildup, which they say points to preparation for an extended period of nuclear competition.
Images analyzed by experts reveal construction activity and enhanced security across nearly every link in China’s nuclear weapons supply chain. At sites associated with plutonium pit production, observers noted new structures, expanded infrastructure, and security zones that have roughly doubled in size.
One particularly notable location near Pingtong in Sichuan province — the only publicly identified Chinese site tied to plutonium pit production — has seen especially sweeping changes over the past five years. Analysts say its capabilities now rival, and in certain respects exceed, those of the Pantex facility in Texas, where U.S. nuclear warheads are assembled and maintained.
Rapid growth has also been observed at a separate facility in Zitong County, also in Sichuan, believed to manufacture high-explosive components. Satellite imagery shows newly erected security barriers, expanded storage and testing areas, and a massive 430,000-square-foot structure completed last year that could support assembly and transport of warhead parts.
Beyond manufacturing, analysts point to renewed activity at China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site in Xinjiang, where new underground tunnels and shafts have been constructed. Experts suggest this could signal preparations for future nuclear tests, despite China having signed — but never ratified — the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
Some specialists also believe Beijing may be edging toward a “launch-on-warning” posture, under which it would fire nuclear weapons upon detecting an incoming attack rather than waiting for a strike to land.
“Rapid-response nuclear postures raise the danger of misunderstanding and overreaction,” said Tong Zhao of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
{Matzav.com}
