U.S. Intel: Iran Unlikely to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Sees Oil Chokepoint as Key Leverage
Recent U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is not expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, as control over the critical global oil route remains its most powerful point of pressure against the United States, according to three individuals familiar with the findings.
The analysis suggests Tehran may continue restricting access through the strait to keep energy prices elevated, using that pressure to push President Donald Trump toward ending the nearly five-week-long conflict.
The intelligence also underscores a broader concern: rather than weakening Iran, the ongoing war may be enhancing its regional influence by demonstrating its ability to threaten one of the world’s most important shipping lanes.
Trump, however, has publicly minimized the difficulty of reopening the strait, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes. On Friday, he suggested U.S. forces could take action to restore access.
“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” he posted on his Truth Social platform.
Military and policy experts have cautioned that any attempt to forcefully reopen the strait could come at a steep cost, potentially dragging the United States into an extended ground conflict, given Iran’s strategic position along one side of the narrow waterway.
“In the attempt to try to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the U.S. handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organization.
Vaez added that Iran recognizes the strategic advantage it now holds, noting that its control over global energy flows through the strait “is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon.”
Trump’s messaging on how to address the situation has varied. At times, he has made reopening the strait a condition for a ceasefire, while also suggesting that Gulf nations and NATO partners should take the lead in ensuring maritime access.
A White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Trump is “confident that the strait will be open very soon” and has made clear that Iran will not be permitted to dictate traffic through the passage once the war ends.
At the same time, the official noted that Trump has emphasized that other countries “have far more at stake in preventing this outcome” than the United States.
Since the conflict began on Feb. 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has employed a range of tactics to disrupt commercial shipping through the strait, despite being outmatched militarily.
These measures have included attacks on civilian vessels, the deployment of naval mines, and demands for transit fees, effectively choking off passage and driving global oil prices sharply higher, while also triggering fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf energy supplies.
The spike in energy costs carries potential political consequences in the United States, raising inflation concerns as Trump and Republican candidates prepare for the upcoming November midterm elections.
According to the intelligence findings, Iran is unlikely to relinquish this strategic advantage anytime soon, the sources said, declining to specify which agencies produced the reports.
“It is certainly the case that now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won’t soon give it up,” said one of the sources. All three spoke anonymously due to the sensitivity of the information.
Experts warn that any military effort to reopen the strait would be fraught with danger. The narrow waterway, which separates Iran from Oman, is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with shipping lanes only about 2 miles wide in each direction—making vessels and military forces highly vulnerable.
Even if U.S. forces were to seize territory along Iran’s southern coast or nearby islands, analysts say the IRGC could continue to threaten the strait using drones and missiles launched from deeper within Iranian territory.
“All it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones,” said Vaez.
Some analysts believe Iran will seek to maintain its ability to regulate traffic through the strait even after the war, viewing it as a critical tool for rebuilding its economy, potentially by charging commercial vessels transit fees.
Tehran “is going to look to maintain the leverage that they have rediscovered by disrupting traffic” through the strait, former CIA Director Bill Burns said in a Foreign Affairs magazine podcast on Thursday.
Burns said Iran is likely to use its control over the waterway as leverage in future negotiations with the United States, aiming to secure “long-term deterrence and security guarantees” while also extracting “some direct material benefits” such as passage fees to support post-war reconstruction.
“That,” he said, “sets up a really difficult negotiation right now.”
