Alarm is spreading through Israel’s right-wing and chareidi political parties as unusually high voter turnout in Tuesday’s Knesset elections raises fears that the political balance could shift dramatically, potentially costing United Torah Judaism its seventh Knesset seat and jeopardizing the right-wing bloc’s prospects of securing a majority.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich held an urgent telephone conversation Tuesday afternoon to coordinate an intensified effort to bring right-wing voters to the polls during the remaining hours of Election Day. The discussion followed reports of particularly strong turnout in Arab communities and traditional center-left strongholds, while several major chareidi cities were recording participation rates below the national average.
According to a statement from the Prime Minister’s Office, the conversation took place in response to what officials described as “concerning voter turnout percentages in the Arab sector.” Netanyahu and Smotrich agreed to coordinate their efforts to encourage supporters of the right-wing parties to cast their ballots before polls close at 10 p.m.
The concern comes amid extraordinary nationwide voting figures. By 2 p.m., 44.9% of eligible Israelis had already voted, representing 3,290,480 ballots cast. That figure is the highest recorded at that hour in decades and represents a substantial increase over the 2022 Knesset elections, when turnout at the same point stood at 38.9%.
The six-percentage-point increase has prompted intense scrutiny of voting patterns across the country, with political operatives attempting to determine whether the surge reflects a broad increase in civic participation or a disproportionate mobilization of voters opposed to the current right-wing government.
Particularly troubling to chareidi political officials are figures from some of the country’s largest chareidi population centers.
According to voting data released at noon, turnout in Bnei Brak stood at just 28.4%, while Beitar Illit recorded 28.3%. Both figures were below the nationwide average of 31.5% at that hour.
Modiin Illit performed somewhat better, with 33.2% of eligible voters having cast ballots by noon. However, that figure was still lower than the 36.9% turnout recorded in Rahat, the predominantly Bedouin city in southern Israel.
The unexpectedly high participation in Rahat has attracted particular attention among Likud officials, who are closely monitoring Arab voter mobilization and its potential implications for the next Knesset.
In several communities traditionally associated with Israel’s center-left parties, turnout was also running ahead of the national average.
Ramat Hasharon recorded approximately 35% participation by noon, followed by Hod Hasharon at 33.5%, Givatayim at approximately 33%, and Kfar Saba at roughly 33%.
By contrast, Bat Yam, a city generally regarded as a Likud stronghold, reported turnout of only about 24%.
The figures suggest that voters in several communities associated with the opposition were heading to the polls at a faster pace than those in some traditional right-wing and chareidi strongholds.
Nevertheless, participation in Arab communities has not been uniform. While Rahat recorded particularly high turnout, Umm al-Fahm reported participation of only approximately 18% at the same point in the day.
Despite those differences, strong turnout in Rahat and other Bedouin communities in the Negev has become a central concern for right-wing campaign officials.
Shas chairman Aryeh Deri publicly expressed his alarm during an interview with Radio Kol Chai, warning that complacency among chareidi and right-wing voters could have serious consequences.
“I am very concerned about the apathy in our chareidi and right-wing strongholds,” Deri said. “The high voter turnout in left-wing strongholds and the Arab sector is very concerning.”
Deri reported that long lines were forming outside polling stations in Bedouin communities in the Negev and in Tel Aviv, while voters in traditional chareidi and right-wing areas appeared less motivated to participate.
His remarks reflected growing anxiety within Shas and United Torah Judaism that significant numbers of their traditional supporters could remain home, even as voters elsewhere turn out in unusually large numbers.
For United Torah Judaism, the stakes are particularly high.
Political calculations circulating within the right-wing bloc suggest that if the current voting pace continues through the evening, nationwide turnout could approach 77%, a level that would substantially increase the number of votes needed to secure each Knesset seat.
Under that scenario, UTJ could require approximately 314,000 votes to retain its current seven-seat representation in the Knesset.
The estimate is not a definitive electoral threshold. The actual number of votes required will depend on the total number of valid ballots, the number of votes cast for parties that fail to cross the electoral threshold, and the distribution of seats under Israel’s Bader-Ofer electoral allocation system.
Nevertheless, the projection illustrates the magnitude of the challenge confronting the party.
In the 2022 elections, United Torah Judaism received 280,194 votes, securing seven Knesset seats.
If the current projection proves accurate, the party would need approximately 34,000 additional votes simply to maintain the same level of parliamentary representation.
That requirement comes at a particularly difficult moment for the party, which has faced growing criticism from segments of the chareidi community over its handling of the military draft controversy and the status of yeshiva bochurim.
Adding to the uncertainty is the emergence of two new chareidi political lists seeking to attract voters dissatisfied with the established chareidi parties.
One, called Hatzibbur Hachareidi, or “The Chareidi Public,” is headed by Motti Leitner. The other, Tzeva Shachor, or “Black Color,” is also competing for votes within the chareidi electorate.
Both parties emerged amid criticism of the traditional chareidi political leadership, particularly regarding the ongoing draft crisis and the treatment of yeshiva students.
Although neither list is widely expected to secure enough votes to enter the Knesset, their participation could have significant consequences for United Torah Judaism.
Votes cast for parties that fail to cross Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold are excluded from the allocation of Knesset seats. Consequently, even relatively modest support for the new chareidi lists could deprive UTJ of votes it might otherwise have received.
Party officials fear that the combination of increased nationwide turnout, lower participation in major chareidi cities, and competition from alternative chareidi parties could prove sufficient to cost UTJ its seventh mandate.
The implications could extend beyond United Torah Judaism itself. In a closely contested election, the loss of even one seat by a party aligned with Netanyahu could affect the right-wing bloc’s ability to assemble a governing coalition.
Shas officials are also monitoring turnout in chareidi neighborhoods and communities throughout the country, attempting to determine whether the relatively low early participation represents a temporary delay or a more significant shift in voting behavior.
Chareidi voters have historically demonstrated strong electoral discipline, particularly when rabbinic leaders have emphasized the importance of participating in elections. However, the current campaign has unfolded against a backdrop of internal frustration and political divisions that could complicate efforts to mobilize the traditional electorate.
The concerns are not limited to the chareidi parties.
Within Likud and the broader right-wing camp, officials are also examining the potential consequences of votes being diverted to smaller right-wing parties that may fail to enter the Knesset.
Among those attracting attention is the party headed by Ofer Winter, whose participation has raised concerns about votes being drawn away from established parties within the right-wing bloc.
As nationwide turnout increases, the absolute number of votes required to cross the electoral threshold also rises, potentially making it more difficult for smaller parties to secure representation.
Political pollster Shlomo Filber addressed the situation Tuesday afternoon during an appearance on Channel 14, warning that the sharp increase in voter participation could substantially alter the calculations underlying recent election surveys.
Filber explained that the dramatic rise in turnout makes it considerably more difficult for smaller parties to cross the electoral threshold, raising the possibility that the final election results could differ significantly from the projections published during the campaign.
Such a development could produce major changes in the distribution of Knesset seats, particularly if substantial numbers of ballots are cast for parties that ultimately fail to qualify for representation.
At the same time, election analysts caution that turnout figures alone cannot establish which parties are benefiting from increased participation.
A high turnout rate in a community traditionally associated with a particular political camp does not necessarily mean that all additional voters are supporting that camp. Similarly, relatively low turnout in chareidi cities during the early afternoon does not necessarily indicate that those voters will remain home.
Voting patterns can change substantially during the final hours of Election Day, particularly in communities where voters traditionally head to polling stations later in the evening.
For that reason, party officials are placing particular emphasis on the next round of turnout figures and the final hours before polls close.
Netanyahu and Smotrich’s emergency coordination reflects the seriousness with which the right-wing leadership is treating the possibility that high turnout among opposition voters could alter the political landscape.
For United Torah Judaism, the immediate challenge is twofold: encouraging its traditional supporters to vote while limiting the number of ballots lost to competing chareidi lists.
The party’s ability to retain its seventh seat may depend on whether turnout in Bnei Brak, Beitar Illit, Modiin Illit, and other chareidi communities increases significantly before the polls close.
With voting continuing until 10 p.m., the outcome remains uncertain.
{Matzav.com}