POLITICAL SHOWDOWN: Trump May Push Netanyahu Unity Government as Eisenkot Emerges as Frontrunner for First Mandate
President Donald Trump may become directly involved in efforts to form Israel’s next government, potentially pushing for a national unity coalition headed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, as the country’s inconclusive election results leave both major political blocs scrambling to assemble a governing majority. At the same time, Netanyahu’s advisers are reportedly considering recommending that he decline the first opportunity to form a government, while Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot could emerge as the first candidate selected by President Isaac Herzog.
The political maneuvering follows an election that has left Netanyahu’s bloc with a projected 53 Knesset seats, the opposition bloc with 48, and the Arab parties holding a combined 19 seats. Although neither side currently possesses a straightforward path to a majority, Eisenkot could receive recommendations from as many as 67 lawmakers, potentially placing him ahead of Netanyahu in the competition for the first mandate.
According to a report by Kan 11, Trump, who offered Netanyahu unusually strong public support during the election campaign, is considering whether to intervene in the coalition negotiations and help secure another Netanyahu-led government. An individual familiar with internal White House discussions said the election results have generated uncertainty in Washington because neither political camp emerged with a decisive victory.
The possibility of American involvement is particularly significant because officials close to Trump are reportedly opposed to allowing Otzma Yehudit chairman Itamar Ben Gvir to occupy a senior position in Israel’s next government. The administration is concerned that Ben Gvir’s participation could complicate American diplomatic initiatives involving Gaza and other regional issues.
Even before Israelis went to the polls, reports indicated that individuals associated with Netanyahu had been communicating with figures close to Trump about the possibility of establishing a broad coalition that would exclude Ben Gvir. Those discussions have reportedly continued to influence political calculations following the election.
Trump has not committed himself publicly to intervening in the government formation process. When questioned about the possibility, he indicated that he had not yet given the matter serious consideration but would examine it. The White House has not announced any formal initiative to influence the composition of Israel’s next coalition.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s own advisers are reportedly debating whether it would be strategically advantageous for him to avoid seeking the first mandate from Herzog.
According to i24NEWS, individuals close to the prime minister believe that accepting the initial mandate and subsequently failing to assemble a coalition could strengthen the opposition’s argument that every realistic opportunity for a right-wing government had been exhausted.
Such a development could provide Eisenkot and other opposition leaders with political justification for attempting to establish a government supported by Arab parties, despite their earlier reservations about such an arrangement.
By allowing Eisenkot to make the first attempt, Netanyahu could instead force the opposition to confront its own internal disagreements before the Likud begins serious negotiations with potential coalition partners.
The decision ultimately rests with Herzog, who is expected to consult representatives of the newly elected Knesset factions after receiving the official election results. Although the president traditionally considers the number of lawmakers recommending each candidate, Israeli law does not require him to select the individual with the most recommendations. His responsibility is to identify the Knesset member he believes has the strongest prospect of successfully forming a government.
Under the current projections, Eisenkot could receive recommendations from the opposition parties as well as the Arab factions, bringing his potential total to 67. Netanyahu, by comparison, would begin with the backing of his 53-seat bloc.
However, a decision by Netanyahu to forgo the first mandate would also carry substantial risks for the Likud.
The opposition could attempt to capitalize on its numerical advantage in the Knesset by gaining control of the Arrangements Committee, which oversees important parliamentary procedures during the period before a new government is established. Such control could enable opposition parties to advance legislation and other parliamentary initiatives even while coalition negotiations remain unresolved.
Political commentator Amit Segal has suggested that Netanyahu’s immediate priority must be rebuilding unity within the right-wing bloc, which experienced significant internal divisions during the election campaign.
Those tensions were particularly pronounced within United Torah Judaism, where disagreements and political fragmentation complicated the traditional alignment of the chareidi parties with Netanyahu.
Segal’s assessment is that Netanyahu will first need to consolidate his existing political allies before attempting to persuade Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, or Eisenkot to join a government under his leadership.
All three opposition leaders pledged during the election campaign that they would not serve in a Netanyahu-led coalition. There has been no public indication that any of them has reversed that commitment.
Nevertheless, the parliamentary arithmetic has prompted speculation that at least one opposition leader could eventually reconsider if the alternative is prolonged political paralysis or another election.
Eisenkot, despite his potentially larger number of presidential recommendations, faces serious obstacles of his own.
According to political reporting concerning a Yashar faction meeting held Wednesday, at least four members of Eisenkot’s party oppose forming a minority government that depends on support from Arab political parties, even as a temporary arrangement.
The proposed formula would require active parliamentary backing from Ra’am, while the Joint List, which includes Balad, would abstain rather than vote against the government.
The reported objections of the four Yashar lawmakers could make that arrangement impossible, since the opposition’s path to power depends on maintaining support from nearly every member of its already fragmented political camp.
The identities of the dissenting lawmakers have not been disclosed, and Yashar has not issued an official statement confirming the reported internal disagreement.
The resistance is particularly consequential because the opposition’s ability to recommend Eisenkot for the premiership does not necessarily mean those same parties can agree on the composition, policies, or parliamentary support arrangements of an actual government.
Even if Eisenkot receives the first mandate, he would still need to bridge substantial differences between parties with conflicting positions on security, religion and state, and cooperation with Arab factions.
The Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, is reportedly preparing to increase pressure on opposition politicians who refuse to support a government dependent on Arab parliamentary backing.
Among the possibilities under consideration are large public demonstrations and protests outside the homes of lawmakers who oppose such an arrangement.
The party’s objective would be to persuade reluctant opposition members that replacing Netanyahu should take precedence over their objections to cooperation with Arab parties.
A source within the Democrats also indicated that the party would consider supporting a rotation agreement between Bennett and Lieberman for the premiership if such an arrangement made it possible to remove Netanyahu from office.
Neither Bennett nor Lieberman has publicly agreed to such a proposal, and there is currently no indication that formal negotiations over a rotation arrangement have produced an understanding.
The opposition is also examining ways to exercise parliamentary power without immediately establishing a government.
One possibility involves assembling a majority to replace the current Knesset speaker, thereby gaining greater influence over the parliamentary agenda.
Opposition lawmakers could also attempt to advance legislation on issues where they can secure sufficient support, including a proposal to establish a state commission of inquiry.
Such a strategy could allow Netanyahu’s opponents to exert political pressure even if their efforts to assemble a governing coalition fail.
For Netanyahu, the coming days will involve balancing several competing priorities: preserving the loyalty of his existing political partners, exploring potential agreements with opposition figures, and determining whether American diplomatic involvement could help produce a coalition capable of surviving a confidence vote.
For Eisenkot, the challenge is different but equally formidable. He must demonstrate that the potentially broad coalition of parties willing to recommend him to Herzog can also agree on a viable government, particularly given the opposition within his own faction to relying on Arab parliamentary support.
The official election results are scheduled to be presented to President Herzog on November 4. Following their submission, Herzog will begin consultations with the Knesset factions before deciding which lawmaker should receive the first mandate to form Israel’s next government.
Until then, the possibility of Trump intervening on Netanyahu’s behalf, the opposition’s disagreement over Arab party support, and the unresolved divisions within the right-wing bloc are expected to dominate Israel’s post-election negotiations.
Trump offered his own assessment of Netanyahu’s electoral performance in an interview with Axios on Wednesday, saying he had initially received “horror reports” about the prime minister’s prospects before the vote count improved his position.
“He’s in pretty good shape now,” Trump said, adding, “I heard my endorsement made a big difference for Bibi.”
When asked specifically whether he would help bring about a Netanyahu-led unity government, Trump responded, “I will take a look.”
The president’s comments suggest that American involvement remains a possibility, although no decision has been made. Reports ahead of the election indicated that some Trump advisers viewed a broader Israeli coalition without Ben Gvir as potentially more compatible with Washington’s regional diplomatic objectives.
Herzog, meanwhile, has publicly urged Israel’s political leaders to approach the coalition negotiations with flexibility rather than allow the country to descend into another election campaign.
“We must do everything possible, especially after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections. So I expect everyone who comes here to arrive with an open mind,” Herzog said Wednesday.
Approximately 500,000 ballots, including votes cast by soldiers, diplomats, and other special voting categories, remained to be counted in the latest reporting. While those ballots could alter the distribution of individual Knesset seats, they were not expected to fundamentally change the political deadlock.
Once the official results are certified, Herzog will have seven days to designate a candidate to form a government. The first candidate generally receives 28 days to assemble a coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.
If that effort fails, the president may assign the task to another lawmaker. Additional parliamentary procedures provide further opportunities to form a government before another election becomes necessary.
Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister throughout the process unless and until a new government receives the Knesset’s confidence.
The political stalemate could therefore extend for weeks or months, with the possibility of another national election in 2027 if neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot can assemble a workable majority.
{Matzav.com}
