Prediction Market Shake-Up: Eisenkot Surpasses Netanyahu as Favorite for Prime Minister
A dramatic shift has emerged in the prediction markets, with former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot overtaking Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu as the leading contender to become Israel’s next prime minister following the country’s next election.
According to the latest figures from the Polymarket forecasting platform, Eisenkot, chairman of the Yashar party, is now viewed as the most likely candidate to form the next government.
The market currently assigns Eisenkot a roughly 36.4% chance of becoming prime minister, compared with 32% for Netanyahu. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett ranks third at approximately 24%, while Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Liberman trails far behind at about 3.6%.
When viewed collectively, the market suggests that traders see a greater likelihood of a post-Netanyahu government than a continuation of the current leadership. Roughly 68% of market activity reflects scenarios in which Netanyahu does not remain prime minister after the next election.
That does not necessarily mean those traders are betting specifically on Eisenkot. Some participants believe Bennett, Liberman, or another candidate could ultimately succeed in assembling a governing coalition.
Eisenkot’s rise has been particularly striking. For an extended period, he lagged significantly behind both Netanyahu and Bennett in the market’s rankings. In recent weeks, however, his standing has surged, allowing him to pass both rivals and move into first place.
Analysts caution that Polymarket is not a public opinion survey. Rather, it is a prediction market where participants buy and sell contracts based on what they believe will happen in the future.
As a result, the percentages fluctuate constantly in response to political developments, campaign news, public statements, and trading activity.
The question being evaluated is also different from traditional polling. Prediction markets are focused on who will ultimately become prime minister, not which party will win the most Knesset seats.
A candidate whose party finishes second—or even third—could still emerge victorious if he succeeds in assembling a coalition capable of securing a parliamentary majority.
For that reason, the numbers are generally viewed as a reflection of traders’ assessments regarding coalition-building prospects rather than direct measures of voter support.
Despite Eisenkot’s newfound lead, the race remains highly competitive. The gap separating him from Netanyahu is relatively narrow and could change quickly as political conditions evolve.
For now, however, the message emerging from the market is clear: a growing number of traders believe the post-election political landscape may usher in a new era, even though no single challenger has yet established himself as the overwhelming favorite to replace Netanyahu.
{Matzav.com}
