A new Channel 12 poll released Monday night shows the political map remaining highly unfavorable for Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s coalition, with Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party tied as the country’s largest factions at 23 seats each. The survey also found Shas slipping to just seven seats, while the coalition would secure only 50 Knesset seats compared to 70 for the opposition.
According to the poll, Likud gains one seat compared to last week’s survey, reaching 23 mandates and tying Yashar, which also stands at 23.
Yachad halts its recent decline and remains steady at 14 seats. The Democrats also hold their ground with 10 mandates, while Yisrael Beytenu remains unchanged at nine.
United Torah Judaism maintains its strength with eight seats. Shas and Otzma Yehudit each lose one seat, dropping to seven mandates apiece, while Religious Zionism gains one seat to reach five.
At the lower end of the Knesset standings, Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am each receive five seats, while the new party led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel again clears the electoral threshold with four mandates.
Failing to cross the electoral threshold are Blue and White, polling at 1.4%, and Balad, with 0.8%.
The overall bloc picture remains unchanged from last week’s poll. Parties opposed to Netanyahu would control 70 seats, including 60 held by Zionist opposition parties and 10 by the Arab parties. The coalition, by contrast, would command only 50 seats.
The survey also examined a scenario in which Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad run together on a joint list while Yoav Segalovich joins Mansour Abbas’ Ra’am party, following recent reports of such discussions.
Under that scenario, only minor changes occur within the anti-Netanyahu bloc. The Democrats would fall by one seat to nine, while Ra’am would rise to six seats, shifting one mandate from Zionist opposition parties to the Arab parties. No other changes were projected.
The poll also measured public preference for prime minister. After leading Netanyahu in several recent surveys, Eisenkot is now tied with him, with each receiving 37% support. Another 21% said neither candidate is suitable for the position, while 5% were undecided.
In a head-to-head matchup between Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett, Netanyahu narrowly leads with 38%, while Bennett receives 37%. Twenty-one percent said neither man is fit to serve as prime minister, and 4% were undecided.
Against Avigdor Liberman, Netanyahu holds a wider advantage, leading 38% to 27%. Thirty percent said neither candidate is suitable for the position, while 5% responded that they did not know.
The survey also examined public reaction to Defense Minister Yisroel Katz’s televised announcement that he intends to replace Central Command chief Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth. Overall, 34% rated Katz’s performance positively, while 57% gave him negative marks. Among coalition voters, 75% approved of Katz’s performance, compared to just 11% of opposition voters.
A majority of respondents also believe Katz’s actions were politically motivated. According to the poll, 52% said his conduct was driven by political considerations, while 28% believed he acted for professional reasons. Another 20% were undecided.
Asked specifically about Katz’s decision to dismiss Bluth, 47% said the move was inappropriate, compared with 17% who supported it. Thirty-six percent said they did not know. Among coalition voters, roughly one-third (32%) said the dismissal was justified.
Respondents were also asked whether Israel’s security situation has changed since the Oct. 7 massacre. Thirty-six percent said Israel’s security has deteriorated, while 35% believe it has improved. Another 23% said the situation has remained unchanged.
The poll found widespread skepticism about whether Israel has achieved victory after nearly three years of war. Sixty-two percent said Netanyahu has not led the country to victory, while 28% said he has. Among coalition voters, however, 68% said Netanyahu has led Israel to victory.
Asked which national leader they trust most on security matters, Eisenkot ranked first with 30%, followed by Bennett at 17% and Liberman at 13%. Thirty-three percent said they trusted none of the three, while 7% were undecided.
The survey also found that most Israelis do not believe the country will ever achieve the often-stated goal of “complete victory” in Gaza. Sixty-two percent said they do not believe such an outcome will be reached, compared with 25% who said they do. Among coalition voters, 55% still believe Israel will ultimately achieve “complete victory,” while 34% do not.
Similarly, the public expressed little confidence that Hamas will ever disarm or cease posing a threat to Israel. Seventy-two percent said they do not believe Hamas will lay down its weapons, while only 18% said they believe it will. Among coalition voters, 59% said they do not believe Hamas will disarm, compared with 31% who said they do. Among opposition voters, 87% expressed disbelief that Hamas would ever disarm.
Regarding Lebanon, 63% of respondents said they do not believe the U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon will ultimately lead to peace or to Hezbollah giving up its weapons. Twenty-three percent said they believe it will, while 14% were undecided.
On Iran, 35% of respondents believe Netanyahu’s handling of the various rounds of fighting has reduced the Iranian threat to Israel. By contrast, 27% believe the threat has actually grown, while 28% said it has remained unchanged.
Finally, the survey found majority support for renewing military action against Iran. Overall, 51% favor resuming the war, while 34% oppose doing so. Support is especially strong among coalition voters, where 74% back renewed military action, while 48% of opposition voters also expressed support.