OFFICIAL RESULTS: Netanyahu Bloc Stuck at 53 Seats as Arab Parties Surge to 19 in Latest Election Count
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s political bloc remains eight seats short of a Knesset majority as Israel’s election count continues, with the latest official figures showing his allies holding 53 seats, the opposition controlling 48, and the Arab parties emerging with a combined 19 seats, potentially placing them in a decisive position in the battle to form the next government.
According to figures released by the Central Elections Committee on Wednesday evening, October 28, approximately 88.6% of the ballots in the election for Israel’s 26th Knesset had been counted as of 8:48 p.m. The updated totals indicate that neither Netanyahu nor the parties opposed to his continued leadership currently command the 61 seats necessary to secure a parliamentary majority.
The results also reflect significant changes in the balance of power among Israel’s political parties, with Likud maintaining its position as the largest faction but losing ground compared with earlier counting updates.
Netanyahu’s Likud stands at 26 seats, down one from the previous projection, while the Yashar party headed by former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot is in second place with 21 seats, also one fewer than in the preceding update.
The Joint List, representing several Arab political factions, has gained another seat and now holds 12 mandates, placing it alongside Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party, which is likewise projected to secure 12 seats.
The increase in the Joint List’s representation, combined with the strengthening of Ra’am, has brought the two Arab parties to a total of 19 seats, giving them an unusually substantial presence in the next Knesset.
Ra’am, headed by Mansour Abbas, has risen to seven seats, an increase of one from the earlier figures.
The updated distribution highlights the political importance of the Arab electorate, which participated in the election at a particularly high rate and helped deliver a strong showing for the Arab parties.
Among the other opposition factions, the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, are projected to win eight seats, while Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu holds seven.
The Chareidi parties have also experienced a difficult election, with United Torah Judaism projected to receive seven seats and Shas falling to six, according to the latest figures.
For Shas, the result represents a substantial decline from its previous electoral performance and reflects the party’s difficulties retaining support among both Chareidi and traditional Sephardic voters.
Otzma Yehudit, headed by Itamar Ben-Gvir, is projected to secure seven seats, while the joint Religious Zionism-Zehut list, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Moshe Feiglin, is credited with six.
The combined results leave Netanyahu’s existing political camp with 53 mandates, far below the threshold needed to establish a government without obtaining support from parties outside his current alliance.
The opposition bloc, meanwhile, has 48 seats, meaning that it, too, would need additional parliamentary partners to assemble a governing majority.
The unusually large representation of the Arab factions complicates the coalition calculations for both sides, particularly given the political disagreements that have historically made cooperation between some of the parties difficult.
Although the 19 seats held by the Joint List and Ra’am could prove consequential in determining whether a government can be formed, their electoral success does not automatically translate into participation in a coalition.
The ultimate outcome will depend on negotiations among party leaders, their willingness to cooperate across political divisions, and the recommendations they submit to the president during the government-formation process.
The continuing count has also left several smaller parties outside the Knesset, with their votes potentially playing an important role in determining the final allocation of seats.
The Reservists and Economic Party, headed by Yoaz Hendel and economist Yaron Zelekha, has received approximately 2.63% of the vote, below the 3.25% electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset.
The Amcha Yisrael party, led by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, has attracted approximately 1.61% of the vote, also falling short of the threshold.
Under Israel’s electoral system, votes cast for parties that fail to qualify for Knesset representation do not translate into parliamentary seats. The remaining seats are distributed among qualifying parties according to the election rules, including applicable surplus-vote agreements.
As a result, relatively small changes in vote totals can affect the final seat distribution, particularly when parties are competing for the last available mandates.
Election officials are now concentrating on the remaining ballots, including votes cast through the special double-envelope system.
These ballots include those submitted by IDF soldiers, prisoners, diplomats serving overseas, hospital patients and other eligible voters unable to cast ballots at their regular polling stations.
Unlike ordinary ballots, double-envelope votes require additional verification to ensure that each individual has voted only once. The process involves checking voter information before the ballots can be added to the national totals.
The Central Elections Committee indicated that hundreds of thousands of these ballots remained to be processed, along with a smaller number of regular ballots requiring additional scrutiny.
The outstanding votes could still alter the projected distribution of seats, particularly among parties whose current totals place them close to gaining or losing an additional mandate.
Election officials have indicated that a more complete count is expected Thursday, while the final certified results are scheduled for publication on November 4.
The election was also marked by exceptionally high voter participation, with nationwide turnout reaching approximately 77.7%, the highest level recorded since 1999.
Participation among Arab voters was estimated at approximately 80%, helping explain the dramatic increase in representation for the Joint List and Ra’am.
The IDF separately reported that 79.9% of eligible military personnel voted, an increase of 6.2 percentage points compared with the previous election in 2022.
Military officials operated more than 890 polling stations at bases and military positions, including locations beyond Israel’s borders, to enable soldiers and reservists to participate.
The unusually strong turnout has increased the total number of ballots that election officials must process, contributing to the extended counting period.
The political implications are already becoming apparent, with both Netanyahu and Eisenkot facing difficult coalition calculations.
Netanyahu’s bloc would need at least eight additional seats to reach the required majority, while Eisenkot’s 48-seat opposition grouping would need 13 more.
Together, the opposition parties and the Arab factions currently hold 67 seats, although that numerical total does not represent an agreed-upon governing coalition.
Several opposition leaders have expressed reservations about relying on Arab parties, and Netanyahu has ruled out forming a government dependent on their support.
The possibility of cooperation between rival Jewish parties also remains uncertain, given the political differences and longstanding disputes separating the major factions.
Once the official results are finalized, President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the elected parties before assigning a Knesset member the task of forming a government.
The president is not required to select the leader of the largest party. Rather, the decision is based on which candidate appears most capable of assembling a coalition that can command the confidence of the Knesset.
The candidate selected will ordinarily receive 28 days to form a government, with the possibility of an extension of up to 14 additional days.
If coalition negotiations fail, the process can move to another candidate or eventually lead to another election.
For now, Netanyahu remains prime minister while the counting and subsequent coalition negotiations proceed.
The latest results leave Israel facing a potentially prolonged period of political uncertainty, with the final ballots still capable of shifting individual mandates but neither major bloc presently possessing a clear path to a 61-seat majority.
{Matzav.com}
