Why the Iran War May Come Down to the Control of One Tiny Island
A small island in the Persian Gulf that is only about one-third the size of Manhattan has become a focal point in discussions about how the conflict with Iran could unfold, as analysts say its control could dramatically affect Tehran’s finances and influence President Trump’s strategy toward the regime, the NY Post reports.
Kharg Island sits roughly 16 miles from Iran’s coastline in the Persian Gulf. Because of its exposed position, experts say it could be difficult for Iran to defend while also being relatively easy for adversaries to isolate — factors that have reportedly attracted attention from planners within the administration.
“Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Take it out, and this means cutting off the military budget in addition to pulling the plug on the basic services that keep Iranian society functioning,” said Mohammed Soliman, a senior fellow at the DC-based Middle East Institute.
Soliman explained that even a temporary disruption of activity on the island could send shockwaves through Iran’s economy and internal stability.
“Losing Kharg for even a few weeks will create a security and societal crisis in Iran at the same time. Tehran doesn’t get to choose which one to deal with first,” said Soliman, author of “West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East.”
“The revenue shortfall would run into the billions monthly. You’d see the currency collapse further, inflation spike, subsidies buckle, and this will add more pressure on the country with no quick way to stop the bleeding.”
According to a source familiar with administration thinking, the question surrounding a move to seize the island is less about whether it will happen and more about the timing, given its strategic importance in the wider conflict.
The source said the Israel Defense Forces would prefer to capture the island sooner, while American commanders are believed to favor continuing strikes against Iran’s offensive capabilities before turning attention to Kharg.
Under that approach, taking control of the island would occur only after Iran’s military power had already been severely weakened, allowing the move to deliver maximum strategic pressure on the regime.
Although Iranian oil exports face heavy American sanctions, most crude shipped from Kharg ultimately ends up in China.
Since the war began on Feb. 28, oil shipments moving through the Persian Gulf have slowed dramatically. The disruption has rattled global markets, prompting sharp fluctuations in trading as Trump attempts to encourage commercial vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by offering a new reinsurance plan along with U.S. naval escorts.
JP Morgan warned in a statement Monday that “a direct strike [on Kharg Island] would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure.”
Axios was the first to report that Washington was considering a mission aimed at capturing Kharg Island.
Former administration official John Ullyot, who previously served in defense roles including at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term, said the island’s central role in Iran’s economy could provide the United States with major leverage.
Ullyot described the prospect of a military operation to take the island as a risky move that could nonetheless deliver major strategic benefits.
A US raid to capture Kharg would be “high-risk, high-reward,” Ullyot said.
“To take such a high percentage of the Iranian oil supply off the table would cripple the regime and would also give the US, as it has in Venezuela, a big say on where Iran’s oil supply would go,” he said.
“This is the whole source of their economy.”
Since launching the war with Iran, Trump has frequently pointed to events in Venezuela, telling audiences how he removed dictator Nicolas Maduro and replaced him with vice president Delcy Rodriquez, who later agreed to direct oil exports toward the United States and allow American companies into the country’s energy sector.
Ullyot said Trump appears aware of the dangers that come with occupying territory inside Iran itself, suggesting that large numbers of American troops may not be necessary because of Kharg Island’s geographic position.
“One option would be to do a naval blockade of the island,” he said.
“President Trump can essentially seize the island by having an aggressive blockade of the island, [which] he could use down the line to essentially make the Iranian oil supply subject to his call… It would also give him leverage to influence who would be, ultimately, the next leader or interim leader of Iran.”
Speaking Monday afternoon, Trump said he expects the conflict to conclude soon.
“I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion,” the president said.
“So the rest is going to be a determination as to my attitude, along with the people in the Trump administration, what we want to do.”
{Matzav.com}
