A retired senior Israeli commander said this week that Iran’s expanding ballistic missile program poses an urgent and growing danger, warning that Tehran could potentially arm some of those missiles with chemical or biological warheads. He argued that as nuclear talks reach a critical stage, the “only viable option” may be a “massive” and “decisive” military campaign aimed at toppling the regime.
In an interview with Breitbart News on Wednesday, just before a third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations in Geneva, Brig. Gen. (Res.) Amir Avivi — founder and chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum and a former high-ranking IDF officer who continues to advise Israeli defense officials — said the most pressing threat to Israel, American forces, and regional stability is Iran’s accelerated production of ballistic missiles.
“Looking at the moment, the main issue which is urgent — not only to Israel but to American forces and regional stability — is the massive production of ballistic missiles,” Avivi said.
Although Iranian nuclear facilities were “hit severely” last year and require time to rebuild, Avivi cautioned that Iran’s missile manufacturing capabilities are rebounding “much faster.” He described the new systems under development as “more advanced and dangerous” than those used during the recent 12-day war.
According to Avivi, Iranian leadership appears “very determined to retaliate” after sustaining what it sees as a humiliating blow that damaged its deterrence both at home and abroad.
He also highlighted what he called a less-discussed but serious risk: the possibility that Iran could equip some of its missiles with unconventional warheads.
“There is a discussion about that,” he said, confirming that Israeli defense officials are actively examining “what are the capabilities and what are the chances that there is readiness to put a warhead that has these capabilities.”
The potential deployment of chemical or biological agents on long-range ballistic missiles, he said, “strengthens the understanding that we need a preventive attack” to thwart any future assault.
In recent public appearances and briefings, Avivi has similarly warned that Iran is “continuing preparations for war” and expanding missile production even as diplomatic efforts move forward.
His remarks come as a new report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies called for closer examination of Iran’s opaque chemical weapons activities. The report argued that international attention has centered primarily on the nuclear issue, while less scrutiny has been given to Tehran’s possible chemical capabilities. It cited allegations that Iranian security forces used unidentified chemical substances against protesters earlier this year — claims denied by Tehran — and noted repeated U.S. findings that Iran has not fully complied with elements of the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Asked what may unfold in the near term, Avivi outlined three potential paths.
The first scenario, he said, involves an Iranian preemptive attack on Israel or American assets in the region.
“If the Iranians attack preemptively, they can launch a massive amount of ballistic missiles that will overwhelm defenses in Israel and in other places,” he warned.
He added that Israel is tracking Iranian activity “very, very closely.”
A second possibility would be an Israeli strike launched in advance, should Jerusalem conclude that Tehran has crossed established red lines or is preparing an imminent assault.
The third — and in his assessment increasingly probable — would be a U.S.-led operation relying heavily on Israeli intelligence and targeting assistance.
“There’s a very big chance this is what will happen — a massive U.S.-led attack,” Avivi said, describing the present moment as “a very defining moment.”
Beyond tactical considerations, Avivi characterized the standoff as a broader test of American resolve, especially given President Donald Trump’s publicly stated red lines.
“At the end of the day, America has to build back its deterrence,” he said, arguing that demonstrating strength against Iran would have implications far beyond the Middle East, including in relations with China and Russia.
However, Avivi maintained that limited strikes against nuclear or missile facilities would fall short of achieving lasting stability.
“If the U.S. wants to push the vision of stability and peace in the region, this regime must go,” Avivi said, asserting that Iran’s proxy network — including Hezbollah, the Houthis, and militias in Iraq and Syria — ultimately draws its power from Tehran’s ruling leadership.
He said that what would be required is a far more comprehensive and forceful campaign aimed directly at dismantling the regime’s command structure and removing its leadership.
“This is a completely different kind of operation,” he explained. “It’s not just about military sites or nuclear sites. This is about the leadership. It’s about the centers of government, media, Revolutionary Guard, Basij forces.”
For such an effort to succeed, Avivi argued, two developments would need to occur simultaneously: a sweeping and coordinated military assault that cripples the regime’s ability to govern and direct its forces, alongside an internal uprising.
“America is going into this big war without boots on the ground,” he said. “This is not similar to Iraq. The boots on the ground are the Iranian people.”
He expressed confidence that many Iranians, worn down by economic hardship and repeated crackdowns, would see such a moment as an opportunity to seek change.
Despite President Trump’s stated preference for diplomacy, Avivi said he sees “no way to bridge” the gap between Israeli-American demands and what Iran would ultimately agree to — or faithfully implement.
“They are going to deceive and lie and continue their path toward nuclear capabilities and rebuilding their proxies and ballistic missiles,” he warned, suggesting that even a negotiated agreement would not alter Tehran’s long-term objectives.
“Therefore, the only viable option is to attack — massive attacks, simultaneous, decisive — to bring this regime down,” Avivi said. “And I believe that this is what will happen.”
As negotiators head to Geneva for talks, Avivi’s comments underscore the high-stakes choice confronting Washington and Yerushalayim: secure a durable agreement that halts Iran’s weapons ambitions or brace for a military clash that could dramatically reshape the region.
{Matzav.com}
