Report: Israel Almost Attacked Iran the Last Few Weeks
Israel and Iran narrowly avoided direct military confrontation on two occasions in recent weeks amid mutual misjudgments and Israeli concerns over a potential surprise attack, according to Tamir Hayman, a former head of Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate.
Speaking in an interview Monday with 103FM, Hayman said Iranian military preparations created what he described as a “coordination imperative” between Israel and the United States. He explained that the recent close calls stemmed from heightened risks of miscalculation, a dynamic that has pushed the IDF and U.S. forces into deeper operational coordination.
Hayman said American moves against Iran are already in progress and could expand in several directions, depending on how the situation evolves. These measures, he said, might include information and influence campaigns, cyber operations, covert actions, or, if tensions spiral, open warfare.
“There is no zero action at the moment,” Hayman said, indicating that U.S. pressure efforts are already underway.
He pointed to a surge of unexplained reports, rumors, and circulating videos inside Iran, suggesting they may reflect a coordinated cyber and influence campaign combined with internal disruption and subversion. While conceding that not every incident is necessarily connected, Hayman said the cumulative effect has been growing confusion within Iran’s domestic information environment.
Turning to Iran’s political future, Hayman said developments previously viewed as far-fetched can no longer be ruled out. He cited possibilities ranging from heightened nationalist messaging to more dramatic scenarios, such as an extended revolutionary phase led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, potentially including a temporary ruler under a military dictatorship.
As long as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains in charge, Hayman said, Iran is unlikely to launch a full-scale attack on Israel, given Khamenei’s historically cautious approach. That assessment could change, he warned, if a more aggressive, IRGC-backed figure were to rise to power.
Hayman also reviewed Tehran’s handling of domestic unrest, arguing that attempts at economic relief have failed and that harsh security crackdowns have not succeeded in restoring stability. Under those conditions, he suggested, talks with Washington could become the regime’s only realistic path to easing economic pressure through sanctions relief.
Negotiations, he said, were “not an absurd scenario,” especially if Iran were to offer a dramatic concession on uranium enrichment that might draw the United States into serious talks.
“If the US conducts only a symbolic strike and we are attacked, we will not contain it,” Hayman said. “If Washington mounts a heavy response and our added value is marginal, we should act wisely.”
He stressed that any Israeli military response would be shaped by the scale and character of American action.
On the military front, Hayman said Iran has rebuilt its missile production lines following the Israel–Iran war but has not yet implemented the upgrades it had originally planned. He added that Tehran is now seeking Chinese assistance to significantly expand its manufacturing capacity.
Arguing against launching a new war with Iran at present, Hayman said such conflicts exact a heavy price and force large numbers of Israelis from their homes. Strategically, he said, Israel faces a choice between pursuing regime change or, if conflict becomes unavoidable, reaching a limited arrangement to constrain Iran’s capabilities—though he emphasized that “right now, an agreement is a mistake.”
He closed by outlining scenarios he described as unlikely but plausible, including a harsh IRGC-dominated military regime or a leadership change backed by outside actors. More probable, in his view, are internal reforms designed to reassert control over Iranian society.
The Iranian leadership, he added, continues to portray domestic unrest as the result of U.S. and Israeli interference, urging citizens to rally against external enemies. “There are two million people there whose identities are unclear and who are violent,” he warned, while noting that the regime still retains significant leverage.
{Matzav.com}
