RACE TIGHTENS? New GOP Poll Shows Hochul Leading Blakeman by Just Four Points in New York Governor’s Contest
New York Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a narrow 4.4-percentage-point advantage over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman in a newly released Republican-commissioned survey, a significantly smaller lead than the margins reported by several independent pollsters as the November 3 gubernatorial election approaches.
The poll, conducted by OnMessage Inc. for Republican attorney general candidate Saritha Komatireddy, found Hochul receiving 50.3% support among likely voters, compared with 45.9% for Blakeman, the Nassau County executive. The same survey placed Democratic Attorney General Letitia James at 50.7%, ahead of Komatireddy at 44.7%, a six-point difference.
The findings suggest a more competitive contest than other recent polling has indicated, although the survey was commissioned by a Republican campaign and its results differ considerably from the broader polling average.
One of the survey’s most striking findings was Blakeman’s performance in western New York, particularly the Buffalo region, which includes Hochul’s home area. The Republican received 56% support there, compared with 42% for the governor.
Although Buffalo itself generally votes Democratic, the surrounding counties have traditionally provided strong support for Republican candidates.
The poll also showed Blakeman ahead in the Albany region, where he received 52% against Hochul’s 44%. In other rural areas of New York, his advantage was substantially larger, with 62% supporting the Republican and 33% backing the Democratic incumbent.
Hochul’s strongest showing came in the New York City media market, where she led 54.2% to 41.9%. That region encompasses the city’s five boroughs, Long Island and suburban communities north of the city, including Westchester and Rockland counties.
The governor maintained smaller advantages in two additional upstate regions. In Rochester, Hochul led 50% to 46%, while Syracuse voters favored her by 49.1% to 47.1%, according to the survey.
Republican political strategist O’Brien “O.B.” Murray, who worked on George Pataki’s successful 1994 gubernatorial campaign, characterized the findings as evidence of a closely contested election.
“This race for governor is very competitive,” Murray said.
“In this race anything can happen. Four years ago people were tiring of Kathy Hochul. Nobody expected that race to be that close,” he added.
Murray was referring to the 2022 gubernatorial election, when Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by approximately six percentage points, a relatively narrow margin in a state where Democrats enjoy a substantial voter-registration advantage.
The latest findings are consistent with an internal survey commissioned by Blakeman’s own campaign last month, which also showed the Republican trailing by approximately four points.
A separate poll released last week by Pollfinity likewise placed Hochul ahead by four points.
However, those findings contrast with surveys conducted by several established independent polling organizations, which have generally reported a considerably larger advantage for the governor.
According to the RealClearPolling average of four recent independent surveys, Hochul led Blakeman by 12.8 percentage points. Individual polls included a nine-point lead in a Siena University survey and a 19-point advantage in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted during the past month.
The Quinnipiac survey anticipated stronger voter participation in New York City, a factor that could significantly influence the statewide result because of the city’s large Democratic electorate.
The OnMessage survey interviewed 1,000 likely New York voters between October 12 and October 14 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
OnMessage was rated among the more accurate polling firms during the 2024 election cycle, although the latest survey’s sponsorship and differences from independent polling remain important considerations when interpreting its results.
Hochul’s campaign disputed the suggestion that the Republican challenger is closing the gap, insisting that the governor continues to enjoy an advantage as Election Day approaches.
“Governor Hochul continues to build her lead and momentum – New Yorkers want nothing to do with the same Bruce Blakeman who promised to ‘cut Medicaid in half,’ never disagree with Donald Trump, and said ICE was doing a ‘very, very good job’ as they abused their power in New York and across the country,” said Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki.
The latest poll arrives as both candidates intensify their campaigns following their October 13 debate in Manhattan, where they clashed over public safety, affordability, immigration enforcement and the state’s relationship with President Trump.
On Tuesday, Blakeman appeared alongside former Republican Gov. George Pataki in Manhattan to advocate expanding New York’s natural gas production, arguing that the state’s energy policies have contributed to rising utility costs. Hochul has defended her administration’s energy strategy and pointed to financial assistance intended to reduce the burden on consumers.
The candidates are also competing over crime and public safety, with Blakeman criticizing conditions in New York City’s transit system and Hochul emphasizing her administration’s investments in law enforcement and public transportation security.
Early voting in New York begins October 24, with Election Day scheduled for November 3.
{Matzav.com}
