Iran is on the verge of having no oil remaining at sea and no incoming revenue from those shipments for the “first time in history,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, as the Trump administration tightens its economic blockade and senior Iranian officials publicly acknowledge an increasingly severe financial crisis. Pasted markdown
The extraordinary claim comes after Iran loaded no crude oil onto tankers during September, according to Bessent, leaving Tehran dependent on the dwindling cargoes that were already at sea before the blockade took effect. With those shipments now reaching their destinations, Bessent says Iran’s principal source of foreign revenue is approaching a complete standstill.
“For the first time in history, since they started pumping oil, they will have no oil on the water this week,” Bessent told The Axios Show. “They will have no revenues.”
Bessent described the situation as the culmination of a deliberate three-part strategy pursued by President Donald Trump: first inflicting major damage on Iran’s military capabilities, then imposing an unprecedented maritime blockade, and finally attempting to isolate the Iranian economy from the remaining international trade and financial networks available to Tehran.
The first stage, Bessent said, was the roughly six-week military campaign that began in late February. He said the fighting destroyed Iran’s navy and air force, severely reduced its missile and drone arsenal and damaged Tehran’s ability to rebuild those capabilities.
“We had kinetic,” Bessent said. “We destroyed their navy, their air force, substantially depleted their drone and missile capability, destroyed their chances of rebuilding that.”
The administration then shifted to what Trump has dubbed the “Iron Wall,” a U.S. naval blockade intended to prevent Iranian exports while allowing international commercial traffic to continue moving through the Strait of Hormuz under American protection.
“Then we went to what the president calls the Iron Wall and the blockade, which we’d never done before,” Bessent said. “And now we have Operation Economic Outcast, and we are isolating them economically like has never happened before.”
Operation Economic Outcast, launched by the Trump administration in August, is designed to cut Iran off from sources of revenue and penalize foreign companies, governments and financial institutions that continue facilitating Iranian commerce.
The Treasury Department widened that campaign again Thursday, imposing sanctions targeting major components of Iran’s automotive and railway industries, along with foreign companies accused of supporting them. The administration says the sectors have been exploited by the Iranian government and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to support military programs, including missile and drone production and cyber operations.
Among the Iranian companies targeted were major automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA, as well as several important railway and transportation companies. Foreign suppliers in Turkey, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates were also targeted as Washington attempts to close alternative economic channels available to Tehran.
Bessent said Thursday that Iran had loaded zero crude oil onto tankers during September, calling oil the regime’s most important source of revenue. The administration argues that choking off those earnings will increasingly limit Tehran’s ability to finance both its military and its regional allies.
The Treasury secretary says the blockade has produced a striking disparity in maritime traffic: Iranian oil shipments have effectively stopped while enormous quantities of internationally traded oil have continued moving through the region.
“Right now, the score, in terms of barrels out of the strait: U.S. about 1.1 billion, Iran zero,” he said.
Bessent had predicted a week earlier that Iran was approaching precisely this moment. At the time, approximately 15 million barrels of Iranian oil loaded before the blockade were reportedly still aboard tankers, much of it headed toward China. Bessent said that once the final cargoes were unloaded, Tehran would have “nothing left to trade.”
One week later, Bessent says the remaining supply is essentially exhausted.
Inside Iran, the economic consequences are becoming increasingly difficult for the government to conceal. The rial plunged to a new record low over the weekend, trading at approximately 2.69 million to one U.S. dollar, after losing more than half of its value over the past year. Inflation has meanwhile risen above 70 percent.
Iran’s central bank has responded by making as much as $2 billion in U.S. currency available through state banks in an effort to stabilize the rial and satisfy soaring demand among Iranians seeking dollars as protection against the collapse of their own currency.
The economic strain has prompted unusually stark language from senior Iranian officials. Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s top national security official, reportedly described the present circumstances as among the most difficult periods the country has faced during a high-level government meeting attended by President Masoud Pezeshkian and senior ministers. Iranian state media reported his assessment without publishing his remarks verbatim.
Pezeshkian himself acknowledged that conditions have deteriorated, saying his government has adopted a “new posture” to confront the country’s “special conditions.”
The crisis is increasingly being felt by ordinary Iranians as well. Reports from inside the country describe families burning through savings, workers losing jobs, people relocating to less expensive areas and households cutting expenditures on food and other necessities as inflation and the collapse of the rial erode purchasing power.
So far, the economic distress has not produced a sustained nationwide protest movement. Reports from inside Iran indicate that fears of government repression, together with the immediate struggle of families simply trying to meet daily expenses, have limited the extent to which economic anger has translated into organized demonstrations.
The collapse of Iranian oil exports is particularly striking because shipments from other Persian Gulf producers have been recovering. Recent shipping data indicate that regional oil exports have returned to roughly prewar levels despite continuing instability around the Strait of Hormuz.
The recovery has been aided by U.S.-protected shipping routes, alternative pipelines and complicated tanker-transfer arrangements developed by Gulf producers to keep energy supplies moving despite the conflict. The system remains vulnerable, however, as a recent series of attacks on commercial vessels has again raised concerns over maritime security.
The Trump administration says its objective is to preserve that distinction: keep international energy supplies moving while preventing Iran itself from earning money through the same waterways.
War Secretary Pete Hegseth said that American forces can sustain the blockade for as long as necessary and dismissed Tehran’s repeated assertions that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz.
“Iran wants to play games with things like the Strait of Hormuz. They don’t control it. We do,” Hegseth said. “They have literally gotten nothing through. Our blockade’s been ironclad, and we’re running almost at prewar levels every single night through that.”
Hegseth said the situation has left Washington in a “very strong position,” and urged Tehran to “make the right choice” while an agreement with Trump remains possible.
“If they don’t, the president’s going to have all the options he needs on the table,” he said.
Even as the economic squeeze intensifies, diplomatic contacts between Washington and Tehran have continued. Iranian officials said Sunday that the United States had sent ideas to Tehran through an intermediary in response to Iran’s latest proposal, and that Iranian officials were reviewing them.
The latest contacts have reportedly been conducted with Qatar playing a mediating role. Iranian officials have maintained that the immediate discussions concern the Strait of Hormuz and maritime arrangements rather than a reopening of broader nuclear negotiations.
Tehran continues to demand relief from U.S. economic restrictions and changes to the blockade before it will fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Sunday that the waterway would remain closed until Washington fulfills seven Iranian conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, the June framework that briefly established a ceasefire and provided a pathway toward reopening Hormuz and broader negotiations before the arrangement collapsed.
“The Strait of Hormuz will not open until our seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum are met,” Ghalibaf said.
The disagreement reportedly centers in part on the sequence in which the United States and Iran would fulfill their obligations. Tehran says Washington must satisfy the conditions before the Strait is fully reopened, while the Trump administration has resisted accepting an arrangement it regards as inadequate.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has meanwhile insisted that additional economic pressure or another round of American military strikes will not force Iran to accept Washington’s demands.
“There is no military solution, nor any solution based on new sanctions,” Araghchi said, arguing that negotiations based on “justice and fairness” offered the only path to ending the conflict.
At the same time, Araghchi warned that Iran remains prepared to fight if diplomacy fails, saying that if Iran’s enemies “again choose the path of military confrontation, our response will be stronger than before.”
The Trump administration is also preparing for the possibility that negotiations will fail. Senior administration officials gathered for several hours Friday at Camp David for a previously undisclosed meeting focused heavily on Iran and the administration’s next steps.
Vice President JD Vance chaired the session, which included Rubio, Hegseth, Bessent, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine.
“Things were decided or at least deeply discussed,” one U.S. official said.
Trump offered little information when reporters asked afterward what had been decided.
“If I told you, you would have a major story,” he said Friday. “But you will see. It is working out very well. Iran is not doing well.”
The following day, Trump indicated that he was nearing a decision on how to proceed.
“We have a decision that I’ll make about Iran,” he said. “Iran has been decimated. So the only question is it’ll either be the easy way or the hard way. We’ll have it the easy way or the hard way.”
Iran, for its part, is signaling that it is preparing for another round of military confrontation even while participating in indirect diplomatic contacts.
The Iranian army announced Sunday that it is working to increase both the range and speed of its missiles based on lessons learned during the conflict. Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia said Iran concluded that American forces were now operating farther away from Iranian territory and that Tehran therefore needed weapons capable of reaching targets at greater distances.
Akraminia said U.S. forces had withdrawn as far as approximately 1,000 kilometers from Iran in some areas, prompting the military to work on extending the reach of its missile arsenal.