Israel may be preparing a sophisticated surprise operation against Iran’s most powerful military commanders if fighting resumes following Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections, potentially employing tactics resembling the devastating 2024 attacks that crippled Hezbollah’s communications network.
According to a report published today by the New York Post, Israeli intelligence could attempt to eliminate senior Iranian military figures through an unconventional operation rather than relying exclusively on traditional airstrikes. The possibility comes as President Donald Trump considers renewed military action against Tehran and American forces strengthen their presence in the Middle East.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is reportedly moving toward the region, where it could join the USS George Washington and USS George W. Bush as Washington prepares for a possible escalation.
Speaking Friday to Kansas City radio station KCMO, Trump predicted that the conflict is “going to get wrapped up soon,” without providing additional details about his administration’s plans.
Sen. Roger Marshall, a Kansas Republican, suggested that military operations could begin shortly after Americans cast their ballots Tuesday.
“I’m going to guess about a day or three after this election, I would not want to be anywhere close to Iran,” Marshall said Thursday.
Oded Ailam, a former deputy head of global operations at the Mossad, told the New York Post that Israel possesses the intelligence capabilities to conduct an operation similar to its September 2024 attacks against Hezbollah, when explosive devices concealed inside communications equipment detonated across Lebanon and Syria.
“This is the bread and butter of Israeli strategy, is surprise twists and turns, unexpected moves and I’m absolutely certain that Israel has cards in the sleeve that will be used,” Ailam said.
The Hezbollah operation, carried out on September 17 and 18, 2024, involved thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies that had been secretly modified to contain explosives. The coordinated detonations killed dozens, wounded thousands and severely damaged the terrorist organization’s communications infrastructure.
The attack demonstrated Israel’s ability to infiltrate enemy supply chains and carry out operations that remain undetected until the moment they are activated. Ailam suggested that Israeli intelligence could have developed similarly unexpected methods for targeting Iran’s senior leadership.
According to Ailam, effective control of the Iranian government is concentrated among four powerful military officials: Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi, Basij commander Hossein Taeb, armed forces chief Ali Abdollahi and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei.
He argued that Iran’s civilian leadership exercises little independent authority, while Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei serves primarily as a figurehead for the military establishment.
“The president and foreign minister can’t make decisions. [The military junta] hides behind Mojtaba, but he’s not in charge; he’s a complete puppet,” Ailam said.
“Israel will use its imagination, its intelligence and the ability of the Israelis to surprise and turn the table in ways you can not anticipate,” he added.
Ailam also described growing disagreements within Iran’s leadership over negotiations with the United States, suggesting that hard-line military commanders have repeatedly interfered with diplomatic initiatives.
“They’re not on the same page themselves, we see a lot of friction within the regime, different approaches, agreeing then reneging,” he said.
Retired U.S. Gen. Jack Keane urged Washington to consider a broad military campaign targeting Iran’s senior commanders, nuclear installations, energy facilities and weapons manufacturing infrastructure.
“The intelligence we have now as a result of six months of collection during the on-again, off-again ceasefire is significant,” Keane said.
Ailam suggested that an intelligence operation against Iran’s leadership could produce consequences extending far beyond the elimination of individual commanders, potentially spreading fear and suspicion throughout the regime.
“The effect is enormous, especially on the psychology of the enemy. Imagine after the attack there’s a conversation somewhere in a bunker with the top echelons of Iran and everybody’s looking to the left and to the right and thinking the guy next to him is a spy,” he said.
Other analysts cautioned that an Israeli or American attack could provoke an especially fierce Iranian response, including strikes against neighboring countries and critical energy infrastructure.
“[The regime’s] interest is survival; they’ll fight harder,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Former Israeli national security adviser Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror warned that Iranian attacks against Gulf oil and gas installations could prompt Israel to retaliate against Iran’s own energy industry on a massive scale.
“If the Iranian retaliation will be to destroy or try to destroy energy facilities in the Gulf countries, that would be a good excuse for Israel to destroy the whole energy infrastructure in Iran,” Amidror said.
“This is something that cannot be rebuilt in a few years, this will send Iran back 50 years,” he added.
Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, strongly criticized the possibility of renewed American military operations, warning that another campaign could deepen the conflict and threaten American interests.
“Their plan is insane. It will lead to devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law,” Murphy said Thursday.
“The plan that they have developed will lead in my view to a prolongment and an escalation of this war that in my view will be devastating for our security interests,” he added.
The speculation about an Israeli intelligence operation follows reports that American and Israeli military planners have developed options for a short but intensive campaign against Iran after November 3. Potential targets reportedly include nuclear facilities, ballistic missile and drone production sites, and energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, Iranian negotiators met with Qatari mediators in Doha today as diplomatic efforts continued to avert another confrontation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump had not decided whether to authorize military action and continued to prefer a negotiated solution.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, however, warned today that any renewed American or Israeli attack would bring an immediate military response, with Iranian forces instructed to prepare for retaliation beyond the country’s borders.
Despite the possibility of targeting Iran’s military leadership, Amidror maintained that Israel’s primary strategic objectives remain preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons and eliminating its ability to threaten Israel with ballistic missiles.
{Matzav.com}