HISTORIC COLLAPSE: Shas Loses at Least 100,000 Votes in Israeli Election, Suffers Worst Showing in 35 Years
Israel’s Shas party has suffered one of the most devastating electoral defeats in its history, losing an estimated 100,000 votes or more compared with the previous Knesset election, as dramatic declines in both traditional Sephardic strongholds and Chareidi communities have raised serious questions about the party’s political future.
An analysis of the results from Tuesday’s election for the 26th Knesset reveals that Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, received just 257,898 votes in the regular ballot count, compared with 392,964 votes in the previous election. The difference amounts to 135,066 votes, representing an extraordinary erosion of the party’s electoral base.
Even after the remaining special ballots, known in Israel as double envelopes, are counted, the party is expected to finish with a loss of at least 100,000 votes. Analysts estimate that those ballots could add as many as 35,000 votes to Shas’s total, but even that would leave the party substantially below its previous performance.
The scale of the defeat is particularly striking because Shas has traditionally drawn support from two distinct constituencies: Sephardic Chareidi voters who identify closely with the party’s rabbinic leadership and traditional Sephardic Jews who may not lead strictly Chareidi lifestyles but have historically maintained strong political and cultural ties to the movement.
Both groups appear to have abandoned the party in significant numbers.
According to preliminary estimates, approximately 30,000 of the missing votes came from the Chareidi population, while another 70,000 were lost among traditional voters. Those figures suggest that the setback cannot be attributed solely to dissatisfaction within the yeshiva world or to changes in the broader Israeli political environment.
Rather, the results indicate a substantial weakening of Shas’s appeal across the two populations that have sustained its political influence for decades.
Dr. Gilad Malach of the Israel Democracy Institute described the results as the party’s poorest electoral performance in approximately 35 years, with support falling back to levels associated with the 1992 Knesset election.
The comparison is particularly significant given the party’s subsequent rise into one of Israel’s most influential political forces, regularly holding enough Knesset seats to play a decisive role in coalition negotiations.
For decades, Shas has served as a major representative of Sephardic Chareidi interests while also attracting substantial backing from traditional Jewish communities in development towns and other areas outside Israel’s major metropolitan centers.
The latest election results suggest that the party has lost considerable ground in precisely those communities where its political organization and longstanding relationships once provided a dependable electoral advantage.
The most severe declines were recorded in Israel’s peripheral cities, where Shas experienced an average drop of approximately 42 percent in voter support.
These communities have historically been central to the party’s electoral identity, making the magnitude of the losses especially consequential.
In Dimona, Shas suffered a 48.5 percent decline, meaning that nearly half of its previous support disappeared.
Netivot, another city with longstanding ties to Sephardic religious institutions and Shas’s political network, recorded a 46.3 percent drop.
In Ofakim, support fell by 45 percent, while Sderot registered a decline of 42.1 percent.
The results in these cities demonstrate that the party’s losses were not concentrated in a single locality or confined to one geographic region. Instead, substantial numbers of voters moved away from Shas across a broad swath of southern Israel.
The pattern continued in Ashkelon, where the party’s vote total declined by 39.9 percent, and in Netanya, where it fell by 39 percent.
Ashdod, home to a large and politically active Chareidi population, recorded a 37.2 percent decrease.
The declines in these cities are particularly notable because Shas has traditionally benefited from established local institutions, communal networks and strong voter identification with its religious leadership.
Even in areas with substantial Chareidi populations, the party was unable to preserve the level of support it enjoyed in the previous election.
Across Chareidi population centers, Shas’s vote totals fell by an estimated 25 percent, indicating that the party’s difficulties extended well beyond its traditional but less religiously observant electorate.
The decline was also evident in central Israel. In Holon, Shas lost 29.6 percent of its previous vote, while Tzefas recorded a decrease of 21.5 percent.
Yerushalayim, one of the party’s most important electoral centers, saw a comparatively smaller but still substantial decline of 15.34 percent.
In Teveria, Shas’s vote fell by 9.1 percent, making it one of the less severe declines among the cities examined.
The figures point to a nationwide contraction in the party’s support, although the severity of the losses varied considerably from one community to another.
Additional election data from three major Chareidi cities further illustrates the changing political landscape.
In Elad, Shas received 8,920 votes, compared with 9,743 in 2022, a decline of 823 votes, or 8.4 percent. United Torah Judaism, meanwhile, increased its support in the city from 6,862 to 8,456 votes.
A similar pattern emerged in Beitar Illit, where Shas fell from 7,303 votes in the previous election to 6,027 this year, losing 1,276 votes, or 17.5 percent. United Torah Judaism increased its total from 14,081 to 18,033 votes.
In Modiin Illit, Shas declined from 5,277 votes to 4,746, a decrease of 531 votes, while United Torah Judaism added 4,580 votes to its previous total.
Across those three cities combined, Shas lost 2,630 votes, while United Torah Judaism gained 10,126, illustrating the different electoral trajectories of the two major Chareidi parties in those communities.
The figures do not establish precisely where former Shas voters went. Some may have supported other parties, while others may have stayed home. Determining the reasons for the decline will require more detailed analysis of turnout, voting patterns and the political issues that influenced voters.
The results nevertheless represent a substantial setback for Deri and the Shas leadership, particularly after a campaign conducted amid intense debate over the military draft, the position of yeshiva students and the relationship between Chareidi parties and the broader political establishment.
The losses among traditional voters may be especially troubling for Shas because that constituency has historically allowed the party to extend its influence beyond the boundaries of the strictly Chareidi population.
The party’s political strength has long depended on its ability to combine religious identification, Sephardic communal loyalty and broader appeals to voters who feel connected to its institutions and traditions.
A reduction of approximately 70,000 votes among traditional supporters, if the preliminary estimate is borne out, would represent a major change in that longstanding electoral coalition.
The disappointing results have already affected the party’s immediate post-election plans.
On Tuesday, Shas canceled a gathering scheduled to take place in Yerushalayim following the election, an indication of the subdued atmosphere surrounding the party’s performance.
The cancellation came as party officials and activists began assessing the extent of the losses and the implications for Shas’s position in the next Knesset.
The final picture will become clearer once the Central Elections Committee completes the count of special ballots and confirms the official results.
Those additional votes could modestly improve the party’s overall total, but the preliminary figures already indicate that Shas has suffered a significant reversal compared with its showing in 2022.
For a movement that has played a central role in Israeli politics for more than four decades, the election has raised fundamental questions about the durability of its traditional voting base and its ability to rebuild support in the communities that once formed the foundation of its electoral strength.
