Poll Shows Netanyahu, Eisenkot Gaining Strength as Lapid Falls Below Electoral Threshold
A new set of Israeli polls indicates a shift in the political landscape, with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot gaining ground, while opposition leader Yair Lapid drops below the electoral threshold. The data also shows a majority of the public opposing a ceasefire with Hezbollah during ongoing negotiations.
According to a Channel 12 News poll, if elections were held today, neither bloc would be able to form a government. The opposition would reach 59 seats without support from Arab parties, while the coalition would fall short of a majority.
The survey shows Likud gaining two seats compared to the previous poll, rising to 25 mandates. Naftali Bennett’s party weakens, dropping to 20 seats—two fewer than before. Eisenkot’s “Yashar” party emerges as the third-largest faction, increasing to 14 seats, up by one.
Additional results indicate that Yair Golan’s Democrats would maintain their strength with 10 seats, while Otzma Yehudit would also rise to 10. Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu would each hold steady at 9 seats, and United Torah Judaism would remain at 7. Yesh Atid would receive 6 seats, while Ra’am under Mansour Abbas and Hadash-Ta’al would each secure 5.
Several parties fall below the electoral threshold, including Religious Zionism led by Bezalel Smotrich (2.8%), Blue and White under Benny Gantz (2%), Balad led by Sami Abu Shehadeh (1.4%), and the Reservists party led by Yoaz Hendel (2.8%).
In terms of bloc alignment, the coalition would hold 51 seats, while the opposition would control 69, including 10 seats held by Arab parties and 59 by the rest of the opposition.
The poll also examined a scenario in which Bennett and Eisenkot run together on a joint list. In that case, the combined party would receive 33 seats. Likud would remain at 25 seats, while the Democrats and Otzma Yehudit would each receive 10. Shas and Yisrael Beiteinu would hold 9 seats each.
Further down the list in that scenario, Yesh Atid and United Torah Judaism would each win 7 seats, while Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would receive 5 apiece. Parties failing to cross the threshold would again include Religious Zionism, Blue and White, the Reservists, and Balad. Bloc totals would remain unchanged, with the opposition at 69 seats and the coalition at 51.
On the question of suitability for prime minister, Netanyahu leads Lapid by a wide margin, with 42% support compared to Lapid’s 27%. Against Bennett, Netanyahu receives 41% to Bennett’s 34%. In a matchup with Eisenkot, Netanyahu leads 42% to 36%. Against Avigdor Liberman, Netanyahu holds 42% support versus Liberman’s 24%.
Respondents were also asked whether they support a ceasefire with Hezbollah while direct negotiations with Lebanon are ongoing. A majority, 51%, oppose such a ceasefire, while 29% support it. Among coalition voters, 18% support a ceasefire compared to 64% who oppose it. Among opposition voters, 33% support it, while 49% oppose.
Another question addressed whether the government has done enough to support those economically affected by the war. A strong majority, 72%, believe the government has not done enough, while 12% say it has, and 16% are unsure. Among coalition voters, 50% say the government has not done enough, compared to 24% who believe it has. Among opposition voters, only 4% say the government has done enough, while 89% say it has not.
When asked whether they trust U.S. President Donald Trump to safeguard Israel’s interests in a potential agreement with Iran, 33% said they trust him, 48% said they do not, and 19% were unsure. Among coalition voters, 59% expressed trust, compared to 24% who did not. Among opposition voters, 21% said they trust him, while 63% said they do not.
A separate Channel 14 poll presents a different picture, showing the right-wing bloc maintaining a solid majority of 65 seats, with Likud as the largest party at 35 seats. Eisenkot’s “Yashar” party follows with 13 seats, up by one from the previous week. The Joint List rises to 12 seats.
Shas and Bennett each gain a seat, reaching 11 mandates apiece. Yair Golan’s Democrats remain at 10 seats.
Further results show Yisrael Beiteinu with 9 seats, while United Torah Judaism drops one seat to 8. Otzma Yehudit remains at 7 seats.
At the bottom of the list, Religious Zionism receives 4 seats. For the first time, Yesh Atid fails to cross the electoral threshold, polling at just 2.9%. Blue and White under Benny Gantz also remains below the threshold at 1.2%. Bloc distribution in this poll gives 65 seats to the right-wing bloc, 43 to the left, and 12 to Arab parties.
Regarding suitability for prime minister in the Channel 14 poll, Netanyahu leads with 52% support. Eisenkot follows with 21%, while Bennett ranks third with 18%. Other candidates trail significantly: Avigdor Lieberman receives 5%, Yair Lapid 3%, and Benny Gantz just 1%.
{Matzav.com}