FINAL COUNTDOWN: Nearly Half a Million Israeli Ballots Await Counting as Shas Faces Possible Loss of Seventh Seat
Israel’s Central Elections Committee announced Wednesday evening that between 430,000 and 480,000 special ballots remain to be counted in the country’s 26th Knesset elections, with the process expected to begin early Thursday morning and conclude by Thursday evening, October 29. The outstanding votes could alter the final distribution of Knesset seats, with particular attention focused on Shas, which is facing the possibility of losing its seventh mandate.
The committee said preparations are underway to process the ballots, which are submitted through a special double-envelope system designed to allow eligible voters to cast their ballots outside their registered polling locations. Officials emphasized that the estimated number of outstanding envelopes remains preliminary, as the collection, verification, and processing procedures have not yet been completed.
The double-envelope ballots include votes cast by soldiers, members of the security forces, and residents displaced from their homes who voted at locations other than their regular polling stations. These ballots require additional verification to ensure that each individual voted only once before the votes can be included in the official tally.
In the previous Knesset election, held in 2022, more than 460,000 Israelis voted through the double-envelope system. Ahead of this year’s election, officials had initially anticipated a substantially larger number, estimating that between 600,000 and 650,000 ballots might be submitted through the special procedure.
Those higher projections reflected the continuing effects of the war, the extensive mobilization of military reservists, and the large number of displaced residents who were expected to vote away from their registered addresses.
However, the latest estimates place the actual number of double envelopes considerably below those earlier projections.
Election officials are currently completing the scanning and verification of the outer envelopes, which contain identifying information used to confirm each voter’s eligibility and prevent duplicate voting.
Once the verification process has been completed, the inner ballot envelopes are removed from their outer coverings and mixed together. This procedure separates voters’ identifying details from their ballots, preserving the secrecy of the vote.
The verified envelopes are then transferred to the counting facility located in the Knesset parking complex, where election workers will begin tabulating the remaining votes.
According to the Central Elections Committee’s announced schedule, counting is expected to begin at approximately 1 a.m. Thursday, October 29, after the scanning process has been completed.
Officials anticipate that the counting will continue throughout Thursday, with the process expected to be completed during the evening hours.
Updated results will be published on the Central Elections Committee’s website as the count progresses, allowing the public and political parties to monitor changes in the distribution of votes.
The committee also plans to hold a press briefing after the counting process has concluded and the updated results become available.
Although most ballots have already been counted, the remaining votes could have a meaningful effect on the final allocation of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
Because seats are distributed according to the parties’ respective vote totals, even relatively modest changes in the count can determine which party receives a final mandate, particularly when competing parties are separated by narrow margins.
The outstanding ballots are therefore being watched closely by political parties whose final seat totals remain uncertain.
Among the most closely watched developments is the competition between the two established chareidi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism.
According to the count completed thus far, both parties are projected to receive seven Knesset seats, although United Torah Judaism holds a lead of approximately 18,600 votes over Shas in the overall popular vote.
That difference has generated concern within Shas, where party officials fear that the remaining double-envelope ballots could change the allocation and leave the party with only six seats.
Such an outcome would represent a significant setback for Shas, which has traditionally been the larger of the two chareidi parties and has played a central role in coalition negotiations.
United Torah Judaism, meanwhile, is closely monitoring the outstanding votes as it seeks to preserve its projected seven seats and determine its final position relative to Shas.
The results could also influence the broader political negotiations over the formation of Israel’s next government, particularly given the narrow margins separating the competing blocs.
With neither Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s political allies nor the opposition holding a clear governing majority, even a single seat shifting between parties could affect the calculations of those attempting to assemble a coalition.
The special ballots have played an important role in previous Israeli elections, occasionally changing the final seat distribution after the initial count appeared to establish a particular result.
For that reason, party officials are cautioning against treating the current projections as final until all eligible ballots have been processed and the remaining votes incorporated into the official totals.
The Central Elections Committee has stressed that its priority is to complete the verification and counting procedures accurately while maintaining the confidentiality and integrity of the voting process.
The updated figures expected Thursday evening should provide a clearer picture of the final balance between the parties, although the formal election certification process will continue afterward.
The official results are scheduled to be presented to President Isaac Herzog on November 4, after which he will begin consultations with the parliamentary factions to determine which lawmaker should receive the first opportunity to form a government.
For Shas, United Torah Judaism, and several other parties awaiting the final allocation of mandates, Thursday’s count could determine whether their current seat totals remain intact or change in the closing stage of the election.
In addition to soldiers and displaced residents, the double-envelope system is used by diplomats serving overseas, prisoners, hospital patients, certain medical personnel, and voters with disabilities who use specially designated accessible polling stations. These categories account for hundreds of thousands of ballots that must undergo individual verification before being added to the nationwide count.
The size of the remaining vote is substantial. With approximately 40,000 votes representing the equivalent of one Knesset seat under the current electoral calculations, the outstanding ballots amount to roughly 11 to 12 seats’ worth of votes. Those seats are not allocated separately, but the additional ballots can change the nationwide proportions used to distribute mandates among the parties.
Historically, votes cast through the double-envelope system have tended to favor parties with greater support among soldiers and other voters who use special polling arrangements. Chareidi and Arab parties have generally received a smaller proportion of these votes than they receive from the electorate as a whole, making the final count especially consequential for their seat allocations.
The 2022 election demonstrated the potential impact. United Torah Judaism initially appeared positioned to secure eight mandates, but the inclusion of the double-envelope ballots reduced its final representation to seven. At the same time, Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu gained a seat, increasing its representation from five to six.
The Central Elections Committee has also arranged for the counting process to be broadcast through news feeds and its official YouTube channel, providing public access to the proceedings as the remaining ballots are processed.
The results of Thursday’s count will be particularly significant given the exceptionally high turnout in Tuesday’s election, which reached approximately 77.7%, the highest participation rate in more than two decades.
With the final composition of the Knesset still unsettled, the outstanding votes represent the last major stage of the election count before Israel’s political leaders turn their attention fully to the negotiations over the next government.
{Matzav.com}
