US Murder Rate Headed for Record 1-Year Drop Under Trump
Newly compiled crime figures suggest the United States is experiencing an unprecedented decline in killings, with early indicators pointing to the steepest single-year reduction ever observed.
Independent crime researcher Jeff Asher says fresh national numbers show homicides falling faster than at any point in modern data tracking, reversing the surge seen during the pandemic years.
Asher’s Real-Time Crime Index, a nationwide dataset that aggregates reports from hundreds of police departments and is refreshed frequently, indicates the country is on course for the largest one-year decrease in murders ever recorded.
Federal officials are also striking an optimistic tone. Last month, Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate is expected to be the lowest in “modern history,” attributing the shift to a renewed focus across the bureau on violent crime.
Researchers outside the government say the underlying data back that assessment. Because the Real-Time Crime Index is updated well ahead of official federal releases, it offers an early look at national trends while final FBI tallies are still years away.
Figures available through October show killings down by nearly 20 percent compared with the same point in 2024. The index defines murder as intentional, non-negligent killings, excluding accidental deaths and other categories that fall outside standard FBI definitions, a distinction it summarizes as tracking “willful (nonnegligent) killings.”
Asher has cautioned in recent months that nationwide crime estimates are often revised and that official totals can shift over time. Even so, he says the downward trajectory has become so pronounced that the FBI is likely to ultimately report the lowest U.S. murder rate ever when complete 2025 data are finalized, potentially edging below the prior low set in 2014.
The sharp fall in homicides is occurring alongside broader declines in violent crime. Real-Time Crime Index data show reductions across several major categories, including robbery, aggravated assault, and motor vehicle theft, suggesting the change is widespread rather than confined to specific regions or demographics.
Large metropolitan areas appear to be driving much of the improvement. Axios recently noted drops of almost 20 percent in murders in New York City and Memphis, nearly 28 percent in Chicago, and sizable decreases across Los Angeles County.
At the same time, analysts note that a small number of jurisdictions have posted sharp percentage increases, underscoring how year-to-year swings can be volatile for smaller agencies with fewer cases.
The emerging numbers come as Donald Trump has placed fighting violent crime at the center of his second-term agenda, with the administration highlighting tougher enforcement policies and expanded backing for law enforcement nationwide.
{Matzav.com}
