POLITICAL VIOLENCE SURGES: 44% of Democrats Tell University of Chicago Survey They Support “Force” to Stop Trump From Being President
A new University of Chicago survey is raising alarms about growing acceptance of political violence in the United States, with political scientist Robert Pape reporting that 25% of American adults — including 44% of self-identified Democrats — say they support the use of force to prevent President Donald Trump from being president.
Pape, who directs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, or CPOST, said the overall figure represents roughly 65 million American adults. The nationally representative polling is conducted by CPOST in conjunction with NORC at the University of Chicago, as part of a series of surveys examining American attitudes toward political violence.
The findings measure expressed support for the use of force, rather than respondents’ intentions to personally commit violence. Pape said, however, that years of follow-up focus groups and survey experiments conducted by his team indicate that many respondents who endorse “force” understand the term to encompass serious physical violence.
Pape discussed the latest findings in an interview with podcaster Chris Williamson, warning that political violence in the United States has reached levels not experienced in decades and could become particularly dangerous surrounding the 2026 midterm elections.
“We haven’t seen this level of violence, political violence, since the 1960s,” Pape said in a recent interview.
Pape has warned that, in an extreme scenario, the coming election period could become “the most violent election in American history.”
He attributed his concern not to a single political party or ideology, but to several trends occurring simultaneously, including intense partisan hostility, demographic and social upheaval, economic pressures and the willingness of substantial minorities of Americans to tell pollsters that political force can sometimes be justified.
Discussing his newest data with Williamson, Pape said 25% of adults nationwide now endorse using force to prevent Trump from being president. Among respondents identifying themselves as Democrats, that figure climbed to 44%.
“This is a stunning number,” he said. “This is not just another turn of the data.”
The latest findings represent a sharp increase from earlier CPOST surveys. Pape said support for force against Trump had previously registered at approximately 9%, before reaching 14% in September 2025. A May 2025 CPOST survey found 39% of Democrats agreeing that force was justified to remove Trump from the presidency, compared with the latest figure of 44%.
Pape said his researchers have also sought to determine what respondents actually mean when they say they support “force.” Through focus groups and additional survey work, he said, researchers found that among those supporting force against Trump, 55% associated the term with lethal violence, including assassination, while other respondents envisioned violence resembling riots or mass civil disorder.
At the same time, Pape’s research has also identified support for coercive political force among Trump supporters. In the latest polling, he said 16% of Americans supported Trump using the military to suppress Democratic protesters.
For Pape, those findings are evidence of a broader phenomenon he describes as “violent populism,” in which the willingness to justify political violence is spreading beyond organized extremist movements and becoming increasingly accepted among otherwise ordinary Americans.
Pape argues that social media can intensify and spread political rage, but he does not regard online platforms as the fundamental cause. Instead, his research points to deeper political, economic, demographic and social forces driving the increasing willingness to view violence as an acceptable response to political conflict.
His greatest concern surrounding the midterm elections is not necessarily Election Day itself. Instead, Pape believes the most dangerous period could begin once ballots are counted and continue through the certification process and the seating of elected officials in January.
“That’s the real danger zone,” he said.
According to Pape, a crucial factor will be whether defeated candidates and their supporters accept election results or instead conclude that victories were illegitimately taken from them. A contested result combined with already elevated public support for political violence, he argues, could create conditions for serious unrest.
The latest numbers come against the backdrop of two assassination attempts against Trump during the 2024 presidential campaign.
On July 13, 2024, Thomas Matthew Crooks opened fire on Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Trump was struck by a bullet, rally attendee Corey Comperatore was killed, and spectators David Dutch and James Copenhaver were wounded. The FBI subsequently investigated the shooting as an assassination attempt and potential act of domestic terrorism. Investigators determined that Crooks acted alone but never established a definitive motive.
Two months later, Ryan Wesley Routh was arrested after a Secret Service agent spotted him concealed along the fence line of Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, with a rifle as Trump was playing nearby.
A federal jury convicted Routh in September 2025 of attempting to assassinate Trump, assaulting a federal law enforcement officer and firearms offenses. In February 2026, a federal judge sentenced Routh to life in prison plus an additional 84 months.
Trump and Republican officials have not been the only targets of politically motivated violence and threats. Democratic elected officials have also faced attacks and threats, a fact Pape cites in arguing that the current danger cannot be understood solely through a partisan lens.
Historical research nevertheless shows significant differences in the lethality of extremist violence. National Institute of Justice-funded research examining ideologically motivated violence since 1990 found that far-right extremists carried out 227 attacks resulting in more than 520 deaths, while far-left extremists were responsible for 42 attacks resulting in 78 deaths. Those historical figures describe extremist violence over several decades and are distinct from Pape’s current polling of public attitudes toward political force.
The 1995 Oklahoma City bombing remains the deadliest prominent example of modern anti-government far-right terrorism in the United States. Timothy McVeigh’s bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building killed 168 people.
Pape contends that the political environment changed substantially beginning around the 2016 election. His research describes the ensuing period as an emerging era of “violent populism,” marked by increasing threats and violence directed at political figures across ideological lines.
CPOST has also studied threats against members of Congress. Pape’s research has found a dramatic increase in charged threats against lawmakers beginning after 2016, with Democratic and Republican members alike becoming targets.
Pape’s concern is therefore less about assigning political violence exclusively to the right or the left than about the growing number of Americans across the political spectrum who appear prepared to justify it.
“Once you come to see that there are tens of millions of Americans that support political violence, that changes everything,” Pape said.
Another striking example of changing public attitudes followed the December 2024 killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in Manhattan. Luigi Mangione was charged in the killing, which generated widespread discussion online about anger toward the health insurance industry.
An Emerson College poll conducted shortly afterward found that 68% of voters considered the killer’s actions unacceptable, while 17% found them acceptable and 16% were unsure. The partisan differences were notable: 22% of Democrats considered the killing acceptable, compared with 12% of Republicans and 16% of independents. Among voters ages 18 to 29, 41% said the killing was acceptable.
A separate Generation Lab survey conducted among 1,026 college students in December 2024 likewise found substantial sympathy for the killing among younger Americans, adding to concerns among researchers about weakening social taboos against political and ideological violence.
Pape argues that the danger increases when political violence begins to acquire a broader constituency of people who may never themselves carry out an attack but nevertheless regard violence committed by others as legitimate.
His fear is that the United States could enter a cycle in which violence against one political faction becomes justification for retaliation by the other, progressively eroding longstanding norms against using physical force to resolve political disputes.
While most Americans continue to reject political violence, Pape says the growth of the minority willing to justify it represents a significant change — particularly as the country approaches another contentious national election and both sides increasingly perceive the political stakes as existential.
