Bombshell NYC Election Eve Poll Predicts Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo Mayoral Race Will Come Down To Wire
New York City’s mayoral race has turned into a razor-edge contest, with socialist Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani clinging to a slim lead over Andrew Cuomo on the eve of an unprecedented Election Day turnout. A late-breaking AtlasIntel poll released Monday showed Mamdani with 43.9% support and Cuomo at 39.4%, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa trailed at 15.5%—setting up a dramatic three-way showdown that could reshape the city’s political landscape.
The survey indicated that in a one-on-one matchup, Cuomo would overtake Mamdani with 49.7% to 44.1%. However, with Sliwa still holding onto a significant share of conservative voters, Mamdani remains narrowly ahead. “Some of the Sliwa supporters are switching to Cuomo. They’re peeling off,” said Lee Miringhoff of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “These are voters who prefer Cuomo to Mamdani.”
Miringhoff added that Cuomo’s late momentum has been fueled by a barrage of negative ads against Mamdani from super PACs aligned with the ex-governor, flooding airwaves across the five boroughs. Still, he cautioned that “it’s still a lot of ground for Cuomo to make up.”
As the candidates crisscrossed the city on Monday in a frenetic last-minute push—from the Brooklyn Bridge to Staten Island’s ferry docks—President Donald Trump upended the race with a full-throated endorsement of Cuomo. “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”
Trump’s endorsement followed Mamdani’s attempt to capitalize on the president’s “60 Minutes” interview over the weekend, in which Trump said he’d rather vote for a “bad Democrat” like Cuomo than a “communist.” Mamdani portrayed the remarks as proof that Cuomo represented the establishment. Cuomo, distancing himself from Trump’s comments, quipped in response that the president—who had boasted on CBS that he was “much better looking” than Mamdani—would “make a meal” of the socialist candidate.
Early voting figures suggested historic engagement, with more than 730,000 New Yorkers casting ballots over a nine-day stretch leading up to Election Day. Young voters, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, turned out in greater numbers in the final days—a demographic that helped power Mamdani’s primary upset earlier this year. But political analyst Stephen Graves of Gotham Polling warned that Election Day itself is likely to draw an older, more moderate electorate. “As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents,” Graves said. “That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats.”
Not all pollsters are convinced the race is as close as it seems. Alyssa Cass of Slingshot Strategies argued that Mamdani could still secure a majority outright. “When you run an error-free general election campaign … it’s a safe bet that you are on a slide path to win — and to win by more than 50 percent,” she said.
Cuomo’s team nonetheless seized on the new poll as evidence of late-breaking momentum. But others urged caution. “I think the race is getting tighter, but I don’t think it’s as close as this poll says,” said GOP pollster John McLaughlin, who noted that AtlasIntel’s sample included only 59% Democrats—far below the city’s typical composition. Miringhoff echoed that concern, pointing out that Marist’s own polling showed Democrats making up roughly two-thirds of likely voters.
According to AtlasIntel, Democrats comprised 59% of respondents, Republicans 19%, and independents nearly 22%. Early voting data tells a different story: 73% of those who already cast ballots were Democrats, compared to about 11% Republicans and 15% independents. Experts predict total turnout could reach two million voters—the highest since 1969, when liberal Republican John Lindsay won re-election.
While recent polls all show Mamdani in the lead, the margins vary dramatically—from double digits down to a handful of points. McLaughlin noted that this latest poll marks the first time Mamdani’s favorability dipped below water, with 44% viewing him negatively versus 50% positively. “Mamdani having a negative rating is a sea change,” he said. “Either the issue attacks on him are working or there are too few Democrats in the poll.”
{Matzav.com}
