IRAN’S MIDTERM ELECTION GAMBIT: Tehran Officials Admit Deliberately Stalling Peace Talks to Hurt Trump Politically, Brace for Renewed U.S. and Israeli Strikes
Iran is deliberately dragging out negotiations with the United States in an effort to weaken President Donald Trump politically ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, according to senior Iranian officials who acknowledged that Tehran’s leadership is determined to prevent the president from securing a diplomatic victory before Americans head to the polls.
The strategy was disclosed in interviews with Reuters published Tuesday, in which three senior Iranian officials and another individual familiar with the regime’s thinking described a calculated effort to prolong the current diplomatic stalemate, maintain pressure on Washington and exploit growing American dissatisfaction with the eight-month conflict.
At the same time, Iranian leaders are preparing for the possibility that the United States and Israel will resume military operations after the elections, believing that the current pause in major hostilities may prove temporary.
“Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war,” one senior Iranian official told Reuters. “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”
The remarks offer an unusually direct acknowledgment that Tehran is factoring American domestic politics into its decisions regarding negotiations, military preparations and the future of the conflict.
Iranian officials believe Trump is eager to reach an agreement that could ease pressure on energy markets and demonstrate progress toward ending the war before voters decide control of Congress.
By withholding concessions and prolonging uncertainty, Tehran hopes to deny the administration that achievement while keeping economic pressure on the United States.
Tehran-based political analyst Saeed Leylaz openly described the strategy as an effort to affect the American political process.
“Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action,” Leylaz said.
The conflict, which began in February with American and Israeli strikes against Iran, has severely disrupted international energy markets, particularly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transportation routes.
Iranian attacks and threats against commercial vessels have reduced shipping through the strategic waterway, while an American naval blockade and international sanctions have sharply restricted Iran’s ability to export oil.
The resulting disruptions have contributed to higher energy prices and growing political pressure on the Trump administration, with American voters expressing dissatisfaction over the war and its economic consequences.
Despite the severe damage to its own economy, Iran’s leadership believes that maintaining the stalemate could yield political advantages.
The officials interviewed by Reuters indicated that Tehran sees little prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough before November 3, particularly because any agreement would require concessions that could strengthen Trump’s standing with American voters.
Washington has demanded that Iran’s nuclear program be addressed from the outset of negotiations, reflecting longstanding American and Israeli concerns about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran, however, insists that the United States first meet a series of conditions outlined in a proposal transmitted through Qatari mediators.
Under the Iranian plan, Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, although the waterway would remain under Iranian control.
In exchange, Washington would be required to lift its maritime blockade, ease restrictions on Iranian oil exports, release frozen Iranian assets and bring hostilities to an end across the region.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Sunday that the proposal remained available and that messages continued to pass between the two governments through intermediaries.
The United States has not accepted the terms, and Iranian officials have indicated that they have no intention of surrendering their leverage over the Strait of Hormuz without substantial American concessions.
The negotiations have also been complicated by Tehran’s deep distrust of Washington following repeated military confrontations.
Iranian officials pointed to the June 2025 Israeli strikes that disrupted planned nuclear negotiations in Oman, as well as the American and Israeli attacks launched in February shortly after another round of diplomatic discussions.
From Tehran’s perspective, those episodes reinforced concerns that negotiations could be used to buy time for military preparations rather than produce a lasting agreement.
The Iranian leadership now believes that even a negotiated settlement might not prevent another American or Israeli military campaign.
Trump has said that the United States will not resume bombing Iran before the November 3 elections, but Iranian officials told Reuters that they expect renewed attacks sooner or later.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said Tehran’s leadership believes the administration’s ultimate objectives extend beyond obtaining concessions on nuclear development and regional security.
“But the fundamental issue is that Tehran believes that Trump is interested in regime change … and following Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu’s policy of seeking to bring down Iran’s ruling establishment,” Vatanka said.
The possibility of renewed military action was also discussed during an unannounced visit to Israel Monday by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
According to three Israeli officials, Hegseth met with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to discuss Iran, with the visit taking place just one week before Israel’s own Knesset elections.
The Iranian strategy carries considerable risks for Tehran, whose economy has been devastated by the prolonged conflict and international restrictions.
Official Iranian figures showed annual inflation reaching 73.6% in September, while the country’s currency has lost nearly 35% of its value against the dollar since Washington reimposed its naval blockade in July.
Iranian oil exports have also collapsed. According to energy intelligence firm Vortexa, seaborne crude shipments fell to zero during the second week of September, compared with an average of approximately 230,000 barrels per day at the beginning of that month.
Exports remained at zero as of October 5, according to the firm’s data.
The economic deterioration follows months of domestic unrest, including antigovernment demonstrations that were violently suppressed by Iranian security forces earlier this year.
Nevertheless, Iranian officials appear convinced that making concessions to Washington would pose greater political and strategic risks than continuing the current confrontation.
Leylaz argued that the collapse of trust between the two countries has fundamentally changed the prospects for a diplomatic settlement.
“Reaching a sustainable deal with the US, even after the Trump administration, is no longer possible because of the deepened distrust,” he said. “Nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo.”
Neither the White House nor Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded to Reuters requests for comment on the officials’ account of Tehran’s negotiating strategy.
{Matzav.com}
