Sinwar’s ‘Earthquake’ Warning Weeks Before Oct. 7 Was Misread by Israeli Intelligence
Weeks before the October 7 massacre, Israeli security officials received an unusual message attributed to Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar warning that “An earthquake is expected in the prisons because of the prisoner issue.” The warning triggered discussions inside Israel’s security establishment, but officials at the time connected it to the captivity of Israeli researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov in Iraq rather than viewing it as a possible signal connected to an impending Hamas attack.
Channel 12 News reported Tuesday evening on new details surrounding the intelligence assessment and the circumstances that led officials to interpret Sinwar’s message through the lens of the Tsurkov case.
According to the report, Israeli intelligence had learned at roughly the same time of a development involving Tsurkov, who had been abducted in Iraq. A senior Iranian official had reportedly approached Hamas with a proposal that the terror group take responsibility for negotiations aimed at securing her release, while the pro-Iranian Iraqi group holding Tsurkov had agreed to the arrangement.
Against that backdrop, Israeli intelligence officials believed Sinwar’s reference to prisoners fit with the information they were already receiving about Tsurkov.
“Sinwar’s message fit the new intelligence picture like a glove,” officials who participated in the discussions told Channel 12 News.
The message led the Shin Bet to request a special situation assessment. According to the report, those taking part in the discussion did not offer an alternative explanation for Sinwar’s words, and the prevailing assessment remained that his warning was connected to the developing Tsurkov negotiations.
Channel 12 reported that the assessment proved incorrect. In retrospect, according to the network, Sinwar’s message was part of an effort to secure additional concessions from Israel while delaying and concealing the attack Hamas was preparing. The network reported that the message had been conveyed in September 2023 through Sufian Abu Zaida, a senior Fatah figure associated with Mohammed Dahlan, before reaching Israeli intelligence officials.
The report also revisited recent claims involving a warning from the United Arab Emirates ahead of October 7. Channel 12 reported that Emirati intelligence had warned the Shin Bet in September 2023 that Hamas could carry out a violent action, and that UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed subsequently contacted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ensure that the information had reached him. Netanyahu has denied that such a conversation took place.
A senior Israeli security official cited in the report said that such a warning, had it reached Netanyahu as described, might have prompted officials to reconsider the reassuring intelligence assessments that were prevailing at the time.
“If a message indeed subsequently reached the Prime Minister himself from Mohammed bin Zayed, it could have been the missing piece that would have prompted us to take additional, more in-depth steps,” the senior official said. “Something was needed that would outweigh the reassuring signs that we had presented to ourselves. It is possible that this could have been that sign.”
