CHAREIDI VOTERS COMING HOME: New Poll Shows United Torah Judaism Winning 52% Support as Shas Gains Ground
United Torah Judaism is attracting 52% support among Israel’s chareidi voters, while Shas has strengthened its standing within the community, according to new polling figures presented by Dudi Dror of the Askria polling institute ahead of Israel’s upcoming Knesset elections.
The findings indicate that chareidi voters who had previously expressed uncertainty about their electoral choices are increasingly returning to the established chareidi parties as Election Day approaches. However, Dror cautioned that Shas’s improved performance within the chareidi community does not necessarily translate into stronger support among the broader Israeli electorate.
Speaking with Avi Mimran on Kol Chai Radio’s main news program, Dror explained that the proportion of undecided chareidi voters had previously stood at approximately 14%, but that number has begun declining as the election draws nearer.
“Apparently, the campaigns are working,” Dror observed.
According to the figures he presented, United Torah Judaism currently enjoys the backing of 52% of the overall chareidi electorate. When undecided voters are excluded, its share rises to approximately 57% to 58% among those who have settled on a party.
Shas has also registered an increase, climbing from approximately 20% to 24% support among chareidi voters. Among respondents who have already made their electoral decisions, the party receives roughly 27%.
Meanwhile, approximately 8% of chareidi voters indicate that they intend to support parties outside the traditional chareidi political framework.
Dror emphasized that the increase in support for Shas among chareidim should not be confused with an overall electoral surge for the party.
He estimated that Shas’s support within the chareidi sector accounts for approximately four Knesset seats. At the same time, the party has been losing ground among traditional and non-chareidi voters, groups that have historically contributed significantly to its electoral strength.
According to Dror, much of the movement reflected in the latest figures involves voters shifting their preferences within the same general political bloc, rather than crossing from one ideological camp to another.
A significant part of Dror’s analysis focused on younger chareidi voters, particularly those between the ages of 18 and 22 who will be participating in a Knesset election for the first time.
He warned that surveys conducted primarily online may produce a misleading picture of this population, since many young chareidi men spend their days in yeshiva and are less likely to participate in internet-based polling.
“Trying to sample an 18- to 22-year-old chareidi young man online is difficult, because he is usually in yeshiva,” Dror explained.
According to his findings, telephone interviews with young chareidi voters reveal stronger identification with the established chareidi parties than some internet surveys suggest.
Dror also addressed support for Motti Leitner, whose political movement has attracted attention among voters dissatisfied with the traditional chareidi parties. He estimated Leitner’s support at approximately 3% of the chareidi electorate, with greater backing among voters aged 25 and older.
The latest figures contrast with earlier polling conducted by Askria. In September, Dror reported an unusually high level of uncertainty among chareidi voters compared with the corresponding period before the 2022 elections, when only approximately 5% to 6% had remained undecided ten weeks before Election Day.
The new findings also come as broader national polls show difficulties for the established chareidi parties. Recent election surveys have generally placed Shas and United Torah Judaism at a combined 14 to 15 Knesset seats, compared with the 18 seats they won together in the 2022 election.
Dror cautioned against treating any individual poll as a definitive prediction of election results, emphasizing that surveys provide a picture of public opinion at a particular moment rather than a precise forecast of what will happen at the ballot box.
He explained that Askria attempts to improve the accuracy of its research by examining characteristics specific to the chareidi community, including whether male respondents are studying in kollel.
The institute also employs chareidi interviewers to conduct telephone surveys, an approach intended to reach segments of the community that might otherwise be underrepresented.
“The more knowledge you bring,” Dror explained, the better researchers can represent the population they are attempting to measure.
{Matzav.com}
