THE MAMDANI EFFECT: New Report Warns New York’s Shrinking Millionaire Base Is Costing State Billions
A new analysis has found that New York’s share of the nation’s millionaires has fallen sharply over the past decade, costing the state an estimated $10.7 billion in tax revenue in a single year and fueling concerns that additional tax increases on high earners could accelerate the trend.
The report, released Monday by the Citizens Budget Commission (CBC), comes as debate intensifies over Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposals to raise taxes on wealthy residents. Critics argue that such policies could encourage even more affluent individuals and businesses to leave New York.
According to the CBC’s Competitive NYS: Value Proposition Tracker dashboard, New York’s share of America’s millionaires declined from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022—the steepest drop recorded by any state during that period.
“New York’s declining share of high-income taxpayers has meaningful consequences,” the analysis states.
“Had New York maintained its share of the nation’s millionaires over the past decade, personal income tax collections would have been substantially higher – roughly $10.7 billion more in tax year 2022.”
Business leaders and tax policy experts have increasingly warned that efforts to impose additional taxes on wealthy residents—an idea that has gained traction among some lawmakers in Albany—could intensify the migration of high-income taxpayers out of the state.
Although Gov. Kathy Hochul has rejected proposals for a broad increase in income taxes on the wealthy while seeking reelection this year, she has endorsed a pied-à-terre tax targeting expensive second homes in New York City.
Mamdani publicly praised that proposal in a social media video filmed outside hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin’s $238 million Manhattan penthouse. The move sparked a public dispute with Griffin, who threatened to abandon a planned $6 billion Park Avenue development.
That confrontation heightened concerns among business leaders that New York could face a broader exodus of wealthy residents at a time when both the city and state rely heavily on tax revenue generated by a relatively small number of high-income earners.
“In New York, the top 1% of earners pay about 45% of all state income taxes in any given year, so New York’s revenue is very reliant on high earners to stay in New York, and that has been a challenge in recent years,” said Jared Walczak, an economist and senior fellow at the Tax Foundation think tank.
“Gracie Mansion can’t do it on its own; it takes Albany,” he told The Post. “Pied-à-terre will have some impact, but there’s this feeling that New York isn’t done raising taxes, and with other places being more competitive, it won’t be surprising if high-earner taxpayers choose to relocate.”
Abir Mandal, a senior state policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, said New York currently ranks last in the nation for tax competitiveness.
He argued that high tax burdens encourage businesses to relocate to states with more favorable tax climates, pointing to Elon Musk’s decision to move his companies from California to Texas as an example.
“Without reforming the tax structure New York won’t be competitive for attracting population and business,” he said.
“Wall Street is the golden goose. But for how long?”
The report also points to state policies enacted over the past decade that critics say have added to New York’s economic challenges. Among them are income tax increases approved under Gov. Andrew Cuomo during the coronavirus pandemic and Medicaid spending under Hochul that is projected to climb to $58 billion by the end of the decade.
Ken Girardin, a research fellow at the Manhattan Institute, argued that New York’s 2019 expansion of rent regulations, combined with the state’s clean energy mandates, has constrained housing construction while increasing energy costs.
“Albany is directly responsible for the stagnation,” he said.
The CBC report paints a picture of economic and demographic challenges that predate Mamdani’s election, highlighting long-term trends affecting the state.
Among its findings, the study concluded that New York has experienced a net loss of residents to every other state, with Florida and Texas attracting many of those who have left. It also found that New York City’s population gains in 2023 and 2024 were driven largely by international immigration following pandemic-era population losses. The report noted that much of the state’s economic growth is concentrated in a corridor stretching from New York City and Long Island to Albany, while many upstate and rural communities continue losing workers. It further found that New York collects more state and local taxes per resident than any other state, averaging $12,495 per person—78% above the national average.
Although New York ranked second nationally in millionaire concentration in 2010, the report notes that its position has steadily weakened.
By 2022, the state had added roughly 34,000 millionaires compared with 2010, but growth elsewhere far exceeded New York’s gains.
“New York’s number of millionaires doubled, but it tripled in California and Texas and quadrupled in Florida, leaving New York State with the fourth-most millionaires behind those states,” the study states.
The analysis also found that New York City has generally performed better than regions such as the North Country and Southern Tier, where population losses have remained persistent.
“It’s difficult to not be alarmed by this data,” said Justin Wilcox, Executive Director, Upstate United. “With this CBC tool, Upstate New Yorkers can see for themselves the devastating impacts of Albany’s policies — businesses failing to grow, population decline, and the loss of revenue. NYS needs to course correct now before it’s too late and we become permanently entrenched in a cycle of fewer people”
Responding to the report during an unrelated event Monday, Mamdani dismissed concerns that higher taxes would trigger a significant flight of wealthy residents.
He argued that New York has continued to add millionaires even after previous tax increases enacted by the state.
“I’ve been very clear about the fact that we live in the wealthiest city in the wealthiest country in the history of the world, and it’s unacceptable that one in four New Yorkers are living in poverty, and I believe that the wealthiest can do a little bit more to ensure that everyone can afford to live here,” he said.
Steve Fulop, CEO of the Partnership for New York City, warned that if high-income taxpayers continue relocating elsewhere, the burden will ultimately fall on lower-income residents who depend on government-funded services.
“If we don’t course-correct and get laser-focused on keeping the city and state attractive to the people and businesses that drive our economy, the affordability crisis will only deepen because the people leaving are the ones paying the largest share of a budget that funds the social programs meant to help our most vulnerable,” he said.
{Matzav.com}
