President Donald Trump has further cemented his status as the dominant force inside the Republican Party, boasting a flawless endorsement record so far in Republican House, Senate, and gubernatorial primaries this election cycle — a sign that his influence over the GOP may be stronger now than at any point in his political career.
“After years of weak globalists and elitists leading our party, President Trump transformed the GOP into the party of the working class,” Bernie Moreno told The NY Post on Wednesday. “Newsflash to those who still have not caught on: Support the America First agenda or lose your election.”
Although only about one-third of Republican primaries for the 2026 cycle have concluded, candidates endorsed by Trump have already secured victories in 110 congressional contests — including 101 House races and nine Senate races — along with eight gubernatorial primaries, according to a Fox News tracker. Many of those victories came in some of the most closely watched races of the cycle.
Among the prominent Republicans defeated after drawing Trump’s opposition were Sens. John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, as well as Rep. Thomas Massie, one of Trump’s most vocal critics in the House.
Cassidy’s loss on May 16 marked the first time since 2012 — when Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar lost renomination — that a sitting Republican senator failed to win renomination from GOP primary voters during a regular election cycle.
Trump’s influence has extended beyond federal races into state-level contests as well, where his endorsements have increasingly become political make-or-break moments.
Earlier this month, candidates backed by Trump defeated five out of seven Indiana state senators who had opposed him on mid-decade redistricting issues, though one of those races remains subject to a recount.
“The Republicans have real leadership — that’s unquestionable,” said longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “And the party faithful respond to him, respond to that leader, Donald Trump, and it’s his political party.”
Overall, Trump has endorsed Republican candidates in 295 primaries for the 2026 cycle, and additional loyalty battles may still lie ahead after the president recently threatened Rep. Lauren Boebert with a possible primary challenge over her support for Massie.
Still, a source familiar with Trump’s thinking claimed Wednesday that the president is currently “not focused on Boebert right now.”
“That’s a next-cycle [2028] thing,” the source said. “He may or may not weigh in on the Georgia Senate race and a number of other target House races. Probably some statewides, too.”
Trump’s spotless primary record this cycle far surpasses his performance during the 2018 midterms, when he achieved a 95% success rate based on only 37 endorsements, according to Ballotpedia.
Even while out of office in 2022, Trump-backed candidates posted a 93% primary win rate, which later climbed to 96% in 2024, according to Ballotpedia.
Henry Olsen, an elections analyst and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, argued that Trump’s role as the Republican Party’s chief kingmaker is likely to continue at least through the end of his second term in January 2029.
Olsen said Trump successfully “married a charismatic personality with a worldview that was represented by people who had not had that view represented before.”
According to Olsen, candidates endorsed by Trump tend to embrace an “aggressive” form of nationalism centered on “pursuing American interests but not international alliance interests,” while also seeking to root out what he described as “non-American” cultural values promoted by both governmental and private institutions.
“That is now a majority view among Republicans,” he added. “That philosophical change will outlast Trump’s personal endorsement … Nothing is permanent, but for the foreseeable future, which is, say, the next two to eight years, that is the dominant feature of the Republican primary process.”
Olsen, who hosts the politics podcast “Beyond the Polls,” added that Trump maintained his endorsement power even after the January 6 Capitol riot.
“Maintained his strong personal endorsement brand even after January 6th, before his return to strong popularity, he was able to push most of his choices through in the 2022 primaries, and I think we just need to remember that this is a long standing ability of his, and so there’s no reason to think that it will decline any time before he leaves the Oval Office.”
Trump has increasingly used his endorsement power both to avoid divisive Republican primary fights and to punish internal party opponents.
One example came in Michigan, where Trump endorsed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers early, effectively discouraging Rep. Bill Huizenga from entering the race and allowing Republicans to focus on what they see as a major pickup opportunity.
Facing difficult historical trends ahead of the November 3 midterms, Trump’s political team has reportedly become more selective about endorsements after concerns from Republican strategists that weaker candidates hurt the party during the 2022 midterms.
Potential endorsees are now frequently vetted by White House political advisers before Trump formally gives his backing.
Whether that strategy will translate into general election victories remains uncertain.
According to Ballotpedia, Trump-backed candidates won general elections at rates of 89% in 2024, 83% in 2022, and 78% in 2020. During the 2018 midterms, only 59% of Trump-endorsed candidates ultimately prevailed.
“This [2026] is a referendum on him,” Sheinkopf said. “It’s not even a referendum on policies. Now in his own party, the referendum on him was played out in Texas … and he won that argument.”
“But when it comes to the referendum on him nationally, well, that’s a different question,” he added. “It’s about Donald Trump … the same way in ’94, it was about [President Bill] Clinton and the healthcare plan. Now it’s about Trump, the [Iran] war, and costs.”
“Larger figures in history tend to dominate the argument — and he’s a large historical figure.”
Trump’s endorsement dominance has also become a powerful weapon against Republicans in Congress who consider opposing him on key issues.
In the short term, that influence has created tensions within the Senate Republican conference, particularly as Cassidy and retiring Sen. Thom Tillis have become increasingly willing to criticize Trump publicly after falling out of favor with him.
Still, Trump’s demonstrated ability to politically destroy Republican rivals continues to give him immense leverage inside the GOP, sending a clear warning to potential dissenters that crossing him could carry severe political consequences.
{Matzav.com}