NO MORE AUTOMATIC LOYALTY: Shas and UTJ May Refuse to Back Netanyahu or Eisenkot After Elections, as Chareidi Parties Consider Sitting in Opposition
Israel’s two major chareidi parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, may decline to recommend either Prime Minister Binyomin Netanyahu or opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government following the October 27 elections, according to senior sources familiar with discussions within the parties.
The possibility represents a significant departure from the longstanding political alliance between the chareidi parties and Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc, raising new questions about how Israel’s next government will be formed and whether the chareidi factions will participate in any coalition immediately after the election.
According to a report published Tuesday by The Jerusalem Post, sources within the chareidi political establishment believe that both Shas and UTJ may prefer to remain in the opposition until a satisfactory solution is reached regarding the military draft and the legal status of yeshiva bochurim.
The emerging approach would allow the parties to avoid committing themselves to either Netanyahu or Eisenkot while maintaining their ability to negotiate with whichever political camp seeks their support.
However, the discussions have not resulted in any formal decision, and the parties’ rabbinic leadership has not issued a definitive ruling instructing their representatives to refrain from recommending a candidate.
The reported shift comes amid considerable frustration within the chareidi community over the outgoing government’s failure to secure comprehensive legislation protecting yeshiva students from military conscription.
Despite years of cooperation with Netanyahu and his political allies, the chareidi parties have struggled to obtain legislation that would provide lasting legal protection for those engaged in full-time Torah study.
The problem has been compounded by concerns that even if the Knesset approves a new draft law, the High Court of Justice could subsequently invalidate it, leaving yeshiva students exposed to renewed legal uncertainty.
For that reason, sources familiar with the discussions say that passage of legislation alone might not be sufficient to persuade Shas and UTJ to enter a coalition.
Instead, the parties may insist on assurances that any arrangement governing the status of yeshiva students will survive judicial scrutiny and remain enforceable.
The emerging position is particularly significant because of the role the president plays after Israeli elections. Following the vote, President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the elected parties before deciding which Knesset member should receive the first opportunity to assemble a governing coalition.
Although party recommendations are not legally binding, they provide an important indication of which candidate can command parliamentary support.
If Shas and United Torah Judaism decline to recommend anyone, their decision would leave both Netanyahu and Eisenkot without the immediate backing of parties that could be important to assembling a majority.
The possibility also comes as parties seeking to replace Netanyahu are considering parliamentary strategies that could allow them to exercise influence even before a new government is established.
One proposal under discussion involves replacing Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana after the newly elected Knesset is sworn in.
Opposition parties believe that electing a new speaker could allow them to shape the parliamentary agenda and establish control over important Knesset committees, including the House Committee and the Constitution, Law and Justice Committee.
Those committees could then advance legislation on matters such as establishing a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks and imposing a two-term limit on the office of prime minister.
Such a strategy would not automatically remove Netanyahu from office or guarantee that the opposition could form a government. Nevertheless, it could allow parties opposed to Netanyahu to advance legislative initiatives while he continues serving as caretaker prime minister.
According to the chareidi sources, however, neither Shas nor UTJ is currently expected to actively assist efforts to remove Ohana from the speakership.
It remains unclear whether their representatives would vote against such a move, abstain, or simply avoid participating in the vote.
The sources also suggested that if the opposition can assemble sufficient support to elect a new Knesset speaker, that parliamentary alignment could become the basis for negotiations over forming a government.
Among the possibilities being discussed is a minority government relying on outside support from the Arab Ra’am party, or a coalition that includes Ra’am directly.
At the same time, the chareidi parties are reportedly reluctant to become involved in efforts to replace Netanyahu unless their central demands regarding the draft are addressed.
Another scenario being examined would involve establishing a government without Shas and UTJ initially, then attempting to bring them into the coalition after legislation concerning yeshiva conscription has been enacted.
Yet sources within the chareidi establishment question whether such an arrangement would resolve the fundamental problem, given the possibility of renewed intervention by the High Court.
The developments follow public statements by newly appointed United Torah Judaism chairman MK Yaakov Asher, who declared Monday that his party would no longer consider itself automatically aligned with any political bloc.
In an interview with Kikar HaShabbat, Asher revealed that Rav Dov Landau had explicitly instructed the party leadership to stop identifying with the traditional political camps.
Asher said that UTJ’s participation in a future government would depend on concrete achievements rather than promises made during coalition negotiations.
He insisted that the party would not enter or support a government until legislation regulating the status of yeshiva students had actually been passed.
Asher also acknowledged mistakes made during the outgoing government’s term, particularly regarding the handling of judicial reform and the failure to secure legal protections for yeshiva students.
His remarks reflected a growing determination within Degel HaTorah to avoid repeating a situation in which the party joins a coalition based on commitments that are subsequently delayed or left unfulfilled.
The uncertainty surrounding Shas is more complicated.
Shas chairman Aryeh Deri has previously expressed strong support for Netanyahu and rejected the possibility of joining a government led by Eisenkot.
In a July interview, Deri stated, “We support Netanyahu, period,” while identifying the right-wing and religious parties as Shas’s natural political partners.
However, comments made by Rav Yitzchok Yosef, a leading spiritual authority associated with Shas, suggested that the party’s relationship with Netanyahu was not necessarily beyond reconsideration.
During a July address, Rav Yosef expressed frustration with Netanyahu’s handling of chareidi concerns and suggested that Eisenkot might prove more receptive to dialogue.
Eisenkot, for his part, has indicated that he would consider cooperation with Shas only if it accepted his principles concerning Israel’s Jewish and democratic character and the obligation of citizens to participate in military or national service.
Those conditions illustrate the substantial differences that would need to be addressed before any political understanding could emerge between Eisenkot and the chareidi parties.
The two chareidi factions nevertheless continue to coordinate closely on their shared political interests.
On Sunday, Shas and United Torah Judaism signed a surplus-vote agreement ahead of the election, allowing their parties to pool remaining votes during the allocation of Knesset seats, provided both pass the electoral threshold.
The agreement also underscored their intention to cooperate on matters affecting the chareidi community in the next Knesset, regardless of the eventual composition of the government.
UTJ candidate Moshe Rosenthal recently reinforced the party’s position in an interview with Kol Barama, saying that its participation in a future coalition would depend on legislation protecting yeshiva students that could withstand High Court review.
Rosenthal also emphasized that the final decision regarding political alliances would be made by the gedolei Yisroel following the election.
{Matzav.com}
