President Donald Trump is reviewing whether to authorize military action against Iran as diplomatic discussions are set to resume in Geneva, while his top military adviser has cautioned that such a move could carry serious consequences, including the danger of a drawn-out conflict.
According to Axios, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has told Trump and senior national security officials that launching a campaign against Iran could expose the United States to significant risks, among them the possibility of becoming mired in a prolonged war. The report cited five individuals who either participated in or were briefed on high-level internal meetings.
Axios reported that Caine has not urged the president to carry out a strike, though he would carry out any directive ultimately issued. One person familiar with the discussions described him as a “reluctant warrior” when it comes to Iran, noting that his stance differs from his backing of the mission targeting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. While Caine was said to have strongly supported the Venezuela operation, two sources indicated he has taken a more measured approach regarding Iran, viewing the stakes as higher and the risks of escalation and American casualties as more substantial.
Another individual with direct insight into Caine’s perspective told Axios that the chairman does not oppose a military campaign outright but is “clear-eyed and realistic” about the chances of success and the potential chain of events that could follow the start of hostilities. A senior official, however, rejected the suggestion that Caine had expressed doubt about military action.
Joint Staff spokesman Joe Holstead told Axios that in his role as an adviser, the chairman outlines “a range of military options” and includes “secondary considerations and associated impacts and risks,” providing that guidance privately. White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a written statement that Caine is a “talented and highly-valued” member of Trump’s national security team and that the president listens to “a host of opinions” before determining what course best serves U.S. national security.
Axios also reported that Caine has recently been “the only military leader” briefing President Trump on the escalating tensions with Iran. The outlet noted that U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper has not participated in the Iran-focused meetings convened by Trump and has not spoken directly with the president since the standoff began in early January. A senior administration official confirmed that Trump has not communicated with Cooper during that time. By comparison, Cooper’s predecessor, Gen. Erik Kurilla, had provided briefings to both Trump and President Joe Biden on Iran-related matters, the report said.
Behind the scenes, senior officials have been debating how to handle the confrontation with Tehran and what the consequences of each potential path might be. Several advisers have urged caution, although one person familiar with the deliberations said the president has recently shown a leaning toward approving military action. Another source said Trump has insisted that his envoys continue diplomatic efforts to ensure all options are “exhausted” before he reaches a final decision. Those briefed on the meetings said none of the participants has supported sending ground troops or undertaking a “boots on the ground” operation.
At 3:11 p.m. on Monday, President Trump on Truth Social:
Numerous stories from the Fake News Media have been circulating stating that General Daniel Caine, sometimes referred to as Razin, is against us going to War with Iran. The story does not attribute this vast wealth of knowledge to anyone, and is 100% incorrect. General Caine, like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won. He knows Iran well in that he was in charge of Midnight Hammer, the attack on the Iranian Nuclear Development. It is a Development no longer, but rather, was blown to smithereens by our Great B-2 Bombers. Razin Caine is a Great Fighter, and represents the Most Powerful Military anywhere in the World. He has not spoken of not doing Iran, or even the fake limited strikes that I have been reading about, he only knows one thing, how to WIN and, if he is told to do so, he will be leading the pack. Everything that has been written about a potential War with Iran has been written incorrectly, and purposefully so. I am the one that makes the decision, I would rather have a Deal than not but, if we don’t make a Deal, it will be a very bad day for that Country and, very sadly, its people, because they are great and wonderful, and something like this should never have happened to them.
Vice President J.D. Vance has voiced concern during internal discussions that military action could pull the United States into a wider confrontation. One source told Axios that Vance has questioned the operational complexity and potential fallout, while another said he has been laying out arguments “on both sides” so the president can weigh the full picture. The same source added that Vance is not “outright opposed” to a strike.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to two sources, has not taken a firm public stance either for or against military action, instead “sitting on the fence.” Although Rubio has traditionally been seen as hawkish on Iran, Axios reported that his recent focus has shifted more heavily toward matters involving Venezuela and Cuba.
Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Thursday for another round of indirect negotiations brokered by Oman. Axios reported that both advisers have encouraged Trump to hold off on military action for the time being, arguing that further diplomacy could strengthen Washington’s position before any irreversible step is taken.
Speaking to Fox News over the weekend, Witkoff said Trump has been “frustrated” and “curious” that Tehran has not “capitulated” despite mounting U.S. military pressure, while cautioning that such descriptions might exaggerate the president’s stance. Witkoff also warned that Iran could be “a week away” from converting its highly enriched uranium into “industrial-grade bomb-making material,” a development he said would sharply reduce the remaining space for diplomacy.
Beyond the administration, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has been among the most vocal advocates for military action. In remarks to Axios on Saturday, Graham said he was frustrated that some of Trump’s advisers were counseling restraint and opposing strikes. He also spoke directly with the president on Sunday, urging him not to postpone military measures.
Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu has likewise pressed for strikes. Axios reported that since meeting with Trump about ten days ago, Netanyahu has grown concerned that the United States may ultimately decline to act militarily. A U.S. source who met with Netanyahu last week told the outlet that the prime minister left his discussion with Trump unsure whether he had persuaded the president. “Is he still with us?” Netanyahu asked, the source said.
A senior administration official summarized the internal dynamic, telling Axios, “Everyone has a job to do and does their job. Rubio isn’t figuring out what planes to fly. Caine isn’t worrying about diplomatic fallout. The decision to strike, when and how or if at all, has not been made.”
{Matzav.com}
