CANADA PREPS FOR THE UNTHINKABLE: Carney Says Government Planned for Possible U.S. Invasion — “Would Be Irresponsible Not To”
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed this week that his government has prepared for the possibility of a U.S. military invasion of Canada, saying that while such a scenario is not considered likely, Canadian leaders have a responsibility to plan for even the most extreme possibilities amid sharply deteriorating relations between the longtime allies.
“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney told the New York Times in an interview Wednesday while in New York for the United Nations General Assembly. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to.”
Carney, 61, previously served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. His comments came one week after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed that Canada become the European Union’s first associate member, an idea President Trump suggested could amount to a “hostile act.” Canada has been seeking closer ties with Europe as its relationship with Washington has become increasingly strained.
The tensions have been driven in large part by an escalating trade confrontation. Earlier this month, Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of between 15% and 50% on more than $20 billion in American products, targeting goods including steel, aluminum, lumber, wool, milk, T-shirts and air conditioners. The Trump administration responded with additional measures against Canadian trade, including restrictions affecting Canadian products.
The latest round of retaliation followed the U.S. decision on Aug. 22 to impose 50% tariffs on an estimated $28 billion in Canadian goods, including cheese, beer and electronics.
Carney responded at the time with unusually combative language.
“We were attacked. You’re at war when you get attacked. We got attacked. That’s fine. We’ve got the reserves. We’ve got the resilience. We’ve got the plan. We’ve got the focus. We will respond.”
President Trump subsequently signed an executive order directing the U.S. government to refer to Lake Ontario as “Lake America” and threatened additional tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and automobile parts beginning Jan. 1. The lake’s new designation applies to U.S. federal usage and does not alter its name in Canada or internationally.
The current dispute follows an earlier period of friction during the premiership of Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau. Trump repeatedly raised the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state and referred to Trudeau as “Governor,” remarks that contributed to the worsening atmosphere between Washington and Ottawa.
Despite the extraordinary nature of Carney’s acknowledgement, military contingency planning for a hypothetical conflict between the neighboring countries has historical precedent. The United States and Canada have enjoyed generations of close military cooperation, including extensive joint continental-defense planning, but both sides have also drawn up theoretical war plans during earlier periods. U.S. Army historical records document the countries’ later development of extensive joint defense arrangements.
Following World War I, Canadian military planner Lt. Col. James Sutherland Brown developed “Defence Scheme No. 1,” which envisioned Canadian forces carrying out preemptive operations inside the United States if war erupted between America and the British Empire.
American military planners devised their own contingency plan. Known as “War Plan Red,” it was one of a series of hypothetical U.S. military strategies created to prepare for potential conflicts with foreign powers and envisioned a war against the British Empire in which Canada would become a central theater.
The American plan contemplated an early assault on Halifax, Nova Scotia, followed by the seizure of strategically important facilities around Niagara Falls and offensives aimed at Montreal, Winnipeg and the nickel-producing region of northern Ontario.
War Plan Red was ultimately abandoned as the geopolitical circumstances surrounding World War II transformed the relationship between the two countries. By 1940, U.S. and Canadian military officials were instead developing joint plans for the defense of North America, beginning a defense partnership that would deepen considerably in subsequent decades.
Today, the military imbalance between the neighboring countries is enormous. The U.S. Armed Forces have approximately 1.3 million active-duty personnel spread among their six service branches, while Canada has just over 100,000 members in its regular and reserve forces.
{Matzav.com}
