HALF A MILLION VOTES STILL OUT: Soldiers’ Ballots Could Reshape Israel’s Next Knesset as Election Count Enters Critical Stage
Hundreds of thousands of Israeli election ballots remained to be processed Wednesday as the country awaited the final results of Tuesday’s closely contested Knesset election, with votes cast by soldiers, diplomats, hospitalized patients, and other special categories of voters potentially affecting the distribution of parliamentary seats and the political calculations surrounding the formation of the next government.
The outstanding ballots have taken on particular significance because neither Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and Chareidi bloc nor the opposing bloc associated with Gadi Eisenkot had secured the 61 seats necessary for a Knesset majority in the preliminary count.
With the parliamentary balance still uncertain, even a relatively small change in the allocation of mandates could influence the negotiations that follow the announcement of the final results.
Election officials have indicated that more than half a million ballots cast through special voting arrangements may need to be processed separately from the regular vote. These ballots, known in Israel as double-envelope ballots, represent a substantial portion of the electorate and could influence several closely contested Knesset seats.
The Central Elections Committee has been working to complete the regular count while preparing to process the special ballots, with a clearer picture expected as the verification and counting procedures advance Thursday.
Unlike ordinary voters, who generally cast their ballots at the polling station assigned to their registered address, certain categories of Israelis are permitted to vote elsewhere because of their circumstances.
These include soldiers serving away from home, patients hospitalized on Election Day, eligible diplomatic personnel stationed overseas, and other voters authorized to use special polling arrangements.
To prevent individuals from voting more than once, these ballots are placed inside an additional envelope bearing identifying information that allows election officials to verify the voter’s eligibility before the ballot itself is counted.
Once the necessary checks have been completed, the identifying envelope is separated from the sealed ballot envelope, preserving the secrecy of the vote.
The process is more complicated than counting ballots at ordinary polling stations, where voters’ eligibility is checked against the local voter registry before they cast their ballots.
The additional verification requirements help explain why the special ballots are counted later and why Israel’s election results can continue to change even after the overwhelming majority of ordinary polling stations have reported their totals.
The military vote is especially important because of the large number of Israelis serving in the IDF, including soldiers deployed in operational areas who cannot readily return to their registered polling stations.
According to figures released by the military, approximately 79.9 percent of eligible IDF personnel participated in the election, representing an increase over the previous national vote.
More than 890 military polling stations operated during the election, including mobile stations established to accommodate soldiers serving in remote or operational locations.
The high participation rate means that the military vote represents a significant component of the remaining count, although the precise political preferences reflected in those ballots cannot be established until they are processed.
The importance of the outstanding votes is heightened by Israel’s proportional representation system, under which the entire country functions as a single electoral district and the Knesset’s 120 seats are distributed among parties that pass the electoral threshold.
A party must receive at least 3.25 percent of the valid national vote to qualify for parliamentary representation.
Parties that fall below that threshold receive no Knesset seats, regardless of how many votes they accumulate.
Consequently, the inclusion of the remaining ballots could have consequences beyond the direct addition of votes to each party’s total.
If a party currently below the threshold were to qualify after the remaining votes were counted, the distribution of seats among the other parties would have to be recalculated.
Even if no additional party crosses the threshold, relatively small differences in vote totals can determine which parties receive the final mandates under Israel’s seat-allocation system.
That makes the remaining count particularly consequential in an election where the competing political blocs are separated by only a handful of seats.
The scale of the outstanding vote is unusually large this year.
In the 2022 election, approximately 463,000 double-envelope ballots were submitted. This year, election officials have prepared for an estimated 600,000 to 650,000, reflecting the large number of reservists mobilized during the continuing military conflict and the substantial population of Israelis displaced from their homes.
That represents an increase of roughly 30 to 40 percent over the previous election and an estimated 10 percent or more of all ballots cast.
At approximately 40,000 votes per Knesset seat, the outstanding ballots amount to roughly 15 seats’ worth of votes. That does not mean 15 seats remain vacant or will be assigned separately; rather, those votes will be added to the national totals and could change the allocation of mandates among parties.
The composition of the special-ballot electorate is another important factor.
Historically, double-envelope ballots have tended to produce different voting patterns from the regular national count. Because soldiers make up a substantial share of these voters, the ballots have generally been more favorable to Zionist parties across the political spectrum and less favorable to Chareidi and Arab parties.
That pattern could have particular significance for United Torah Judaism and Shas, both of which were projected to receive seven seats in Wednesday’s partial results.
The two parties have traditionally relied on concentrated support in Chareidi communities, where voters generally cast their ballots at their assigned neighborhood polling stations rather than through the special military voting arrangements.
As additional ballots from soldiers and reservists are included in the national count, the relative vote shares of Chareidi parties could decline, potentially affecting their final seat totals.
However, election analysts have cautioned against assuming that previous voting patterns will necessarily repeat themselves this year.
The large-scale mobilization of reservists has brought Israelis from a broad range of religious, social, and political backgrounds into military service, making the composition of the special-ballot vote more difficult to anticipate.
The consequences could be especially important for parties near the electoral threshold.
Among the parties that were below the threshold in Wednesday’s partial results were the Reservists Party, headed by Yoaz Hendel, and the People of Israel Party, led by Ofer Winter.
The Reservists Party was receiving approximately 2.6 to 2.7 percent of the vote, while Winter’s party stood at approximately 1.7 percent.
Although both remained below the 3.25 percent threshold, Hendel’s party was close enough that its representatives were watching the special-ballot count closely.
A significant increase in support from soldiers and reservists could affect its final percentage, although there was no guarantee that the remaining votes would be sufficient to bring it into the Knesset.
The importance of these ballots has been demonstrated in previous elections.
In 2019, Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked’s New Right party narrowly failed to cross the electoral threshold, finishing just 1,461 votes short despite the inclusion of the special ballots.
That election also demonstrated how the late count could affect the distribution of seats among parties already above the threshold.
The current election presents an even larger logistical challenge because of the unprecedented number of special ballots.
Dean Livne, acting director-general of the Central Elections Committee, warned that the unusually high turnout could produce more double-envelope ballots than officials had initially anticipated.
“Tomorrow we will begin [counting] the double envelopes. It is important to say already now that with such a high turnout, it may be that the number of double envelopes is higher than we anticipated,” Livne said Tuesday.
“Therefore, the counting of the external envelopes may not end by Thursday night, and may extend until Friday morning. We will count them all,” he added.
Election officials have indicated that the special-ballot counting process could extend into Friday, with the committee seeking to complete the work before Shabbos.
Under Israeli law, the official election results must be published by November 4.
Until then, the seat projections being reported by television networks and news organizations remain provisional.
The distinction is particularly important because the Central Elections Committee publishes actual vote totals, while projected Knesset seat allocations depend on calculations that can change as additional ballots are included.
The final allocation also takes into account surplus-vote agreements between qualifying parties, which can influence which faction receives a remaining seat after the initial proportional distribution.
For Netanyahu and Eisenkot, the special-ballot count represents another stage in an election that has so far failed to produce a clear parliamentary majority.
Both political camps will be watching closely to see whether the remaining ballots alter the balance between the parties or create new possibilities for coalition negotiations.
For the Chareidi parties, the count will help determine whether United Torah Judaism and Shas retain their projected seven seats each, whether their relative standing changes, and how much parliamentary influence they will possess in the next Knesset.
For the smaller parties, the remaining votes could determine whether they enter the Knesset at all.
And for Israel as a whole, the double-envelope ballots are a reminder that even when the overwhelming majority of polling stations have completed their work, the election is not necessarily over.
With hundreds of thousands of votes still awaiting verification and counting, the final composition of the 26th Knesset remains unsettled, and the political picture could look different once the last ballots are included.
{Matzav.com}
