2028 SHOWDOWN: Vance Emerges as Clear GOP Frontrunner While Nearly Half of Democrats Cannot Name a Presidential Favorite
Vice President JD Vance has established an early lead in the race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, while Democrats remain deeply divided over who should lead their party into the next presidential election, according to a new New York Times/Siena University survey.
The poll found that Vance commands the support of 33% of Republican primary voters, placing him ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who received 23%. On the Democratic side, however, no potential candidate managed to attract even 15% support, and a striking 45% of Democratic primary voters were unable to identify a preferred nominee.
The findings, released as the country prepares for the November 3 midterm elections, reveal a significant difference between the two parties. Republicans are already beginning to consolidate around potential successors to President Donald Trump, while Democrats have yet to develop a clear consensus about their political leadership or the direction their party should take.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost the 2024 presidential election to Trump, emerged as the leading Democratic prospect, but with the backing of only 12% of Democratic primary voters.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom placed second with 9%, followed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 7% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York at 6%.
Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia received 4%, while Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona attracted 3%. Every other Democrat mentioned by respondents received 2% support or less.
The unusually scattered results reflect the absence of a dominant figure within the Democratic Party following its defeat in the 2024 presidential election.
Unlike surveys that present voters with a predetermined selection of candidates, the Times/Siena poll asked respondents to name their preferred nominee without providing any suggested choices. That approach produced more than 20 different Democratic names, illustrating how unsettled the party’s presidential field remains.
Among those mentioned were Barack Obama and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, neither of whom is eligible to seek the presidency. Obama is constitutionally barred from another term after serving twice as president, while Mamdani, who was born outside the United States, does not meet the Constitution’s natural-born-citizen requirement.
Even some Democrats who attracted measurable support have indicated that they are not interested in entering the 2028 contest.
Ossoff, who is currently campaigning for another Senate term, said during a debate last week that he intends to complete the full six years if reelected and has “zero interest in running for president.”
The survey also found substantial disagreements among Democratic voters over how the party should position itself politically after the 2024 election.
Nearly half of Democrats, 48%, said the party should adopt a more moderate approach and move closer to the political center. Another 27% preferred a shift further to the left, while 21% believed Democrats should maintain their current ideological direction.
The preference for moderation was even more pronounced among independent voters, with 72% saying Democrats should move toward the center. Only 11% of independents favored a more liberal direction.
Those findings suggest that Democrats face a challenge extending beyond the selection of their next presidential nominee. The party must also determine whether its future lies in appealing to more moderate voters or continuing to embrace the progressive positions championed by its left wing.
The Republican picture was considerably different, with Vance and Rubio together accounting for a majority of the preferences expressed by GOP primary voters.
Vance’s 33% support gives him a 10-point advantage over Rubio, who has previously indicated that he would defer to the vice president rather than challenge him for the Republican nomination.
President Trump himself was named by 8% of Republican respondents, despite being constitutionally ineligible to seek a third presidential term under the 22nd Amendment.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who challenged Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024, attracted just 3% support.
Another 26% of Republican primary voters did not identify a preferred candidate, considerably fewer than the 45% of Democrats who were unable to name a favorite.
The results suggest that Vance enters the early discussion about the 2028 Republican nomination with a substantial advantage, although Rubio remains a potentially significant figure should he decide to seek the presidency.
The survey also examined whether Republicans want their party to continue following Trump’s political agenda after his presidency ends.
A clear majority of Republican respondents, 63%, said they favor maintaining Trump’s policies, compared with 34% who would prefer the party to adopt a different direction.
Support for continuing Trump’s approach was particularly strong among older Republicans, while younger GOP voters were less firmly committed to preserving his political program.
Independent voters expressed a sharply different preference. More than 80% said they would like the Republican Party to move away from Trump’s approach, suggesting that the policies popular among the GOP base could present challenges in attracting voters outside the party.
The poll’s findings point to a potential dilemma for Republicans as they begin contemplating the post-Trump era. Although most Republican primary voters favor continuing his agenda, the broader electorate appears considerably less enthusiastic about that direction.
The presidential findings were drawn from a larger national survey conducted shortly before the November 3 congressional elections.
In the broader Times/Siena polling, Democrats held a substantial advantage among voters asked which party they would support for Congress. Among likely voters, Democrats led Republicans by approximately 11 percentage points in House races, 52% to 41%.
The survey also found that Trump’s job approval rating stood at 36% among likely voters, while 59% disapproved of his performance. Concerns about the economy, inflation, gasoline prices, and the war with Iran contributed to the negative assessments.
Those results suggest that Republicans face immediate electoral difficulties even as Vance emerges as an early favorite to succeed Trump as the party’s presidential nominee.
For Democrats, the situation is almost the reverse. Although the party currently enjoys a significant advantage in congressional voting preferences, its supporters have yet to agree on who should carry its banner in the next presidential election.
The Times/Siena survey was conducted from October 12 through October 19, with researchers interviewing 3,494 registered voters nationwide by telephone in English and Spanish.
The full survey carries a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.
The presidential preference questions were answered by smaller groups consisting of 1,170 self-identified Democratic primary voters and 850 Republican primary voters. Because those samples were smaller, their margins of error are greater than that of the overall survey.
{Matzav.com}
