Israel’s election has produced a political paradox that could determine the country’s future: A party can win more votes than any of its rivals, emerge with the largest delegation in the Knesset, and still find itself unable to form a government.
That is the challenge confronting Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu following Tuesday’s national election, as preliminary results indicate that Likud remains the largest individual party but Netanyahu’s traditional political allies have failed to secure the 61 seats necessary for a parliamentary majority.
His principal challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, faces a similar difficulty. Although the parties opposing Netanyahu collectively command substantial support, their ideological differences could prevent them from establishing a workable coalition.
The result is a political stalemate in which the question of who received the most votes may ultimately matter less than which candidate can persuade enough Knesset members to support a government.
Unlike the United States, where voters separately elect a president, Israel operates under a parliamentary system in which citizens vote for political parties rather than directly choosing a prime minister.
The country’s 120 Knesset seats are distributed among qualifying parties according to their share of the national vote.
No single party has ever won an outright majority of 61 seats in a Knesset election, meaning that Israeli governments have traditionally depended on coalitions involving multiple political factions.
The leader of the largest party is often in a strong position to form a government, but there is no automatic guarantee that he will become prime minister.
Instead, the decisive factor is whether a candidate can assemble the parliamentary support necessary to establish and sustain a governing coalition.
That distinction has become particularly important following Tuesday’s election.
Preliminary returns showed Likud winning approximately 27 seats, making it the largest individual faction in the next Knesset.
Eisenkot’s Yashar party was projected to receive approximately 22 seats, while Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad party was expected to secure around 12.
Other significant factions included the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, Otzma Yehudit, Shas, United Torah Judaism, and the Arab parties.
But the individual party totals tell only part of the story.
The central issue is how those parties divide into potential governing alliances.
Netanyahu’s traditional bloc includes Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Otzma Yehudit, and Religious Zionism.
Those parties have generally supported his leadership and cooperated in previous coalition arrangements, although disagreements over military conscription and other issues have created considerable tensions.
Based on one partial count, the bloc was projected to receive approximately 54 seats, leaving it seven short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government.
That shortfall means Netanyahu would have to persuade at least one additional party, or enough individual Knesset members, to support his government.
Finding those votes could prove exceptionally difficult.
Several parties outside Netanyahu’s traditional alliance campaigned explicitly on replacing him, and their leaders have repeatedly ruled out joining a government under his leadership.
Even parties that share some of Likud’s positions on security or economic policy may be unwilling to enter a coalition headed by Netanyahu.
Eisenkot faces a different version of the same problem.
The parties generally associated with the opposition include his own Yashar faction, Bennett’s Beyachad, Yair Golan’s Democrats, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu.
Together, they represent a substantial parliamentary force, but they also differ sharply over religion and state, military conscription, security policy, and the role of the Chareidi parties.
The opposition’s difficulty becomes particularly apparent when the Arab parties are included in the calculation.
Preliminary results indicated that the Joint Arab List and Ra’am could together hold a significant number of seats, potentially making them indispensable to an alternative coalition.
Yet several parties opposed to Netanyahu have also expressed strong objections to relying on Arab factions to establish a government.
Bennett and Lieberman, in particular, have opposed coalition arrangements dependent on Arab political parties.
Consequently, even if the combined number of opposition and Arab-party seats exceeds 61, that does not necessarily mean Eisenkot can form a government.
A numerical majority on paper is not the same as a political agreement.
The problem is further complicated by the Chareidi parties.
Shas and United Torah Judaism have traditionally been among Netanyahu’s most reliable coalition partners, but the continuing controversy over the conscription of yeshiva bochurim has strained relations between the Chareidi leadership and Likud.
United Torah Judaism has indicated that it will demand legislation protecting full-time yeshiva students from military service before agreeing to ordinary coalition cooperation.
That demand could become a significant obstacle for any prospective prime minister, particularly one seeking to include parties that favor expanded Chareidi military recruitment.
Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, has supported increasing military participation among the Chareidi population.
Bennett and Lieberman have also advocated policies aimed at changing existing conscription arrangements.
Any coalition involving those parties and United Torah Judaism would therefore have to overcome fundamental disagreements over one of the most contentious issues in Israeli politics.
Shas chairman Aryeh Deri could also find himself in an influential position if the final results leave both major blocs short of a majority.
Although Shas has been closely aligned with Netanyahu, the party’s parliamentary support could become important in negotiations involving alternative political arrangements.
There is, however, no established agreement indicating that Shas intends to abandon its traditional alliance.
The process of determining who will form the next government begins after the final election results are established.
President Isaac Herzog will consult with representatives of the parties elected to the Knesset and ask them to recommend a candidate for prime minister.
The president is not legally required to select the leader of the largest party or even the candidate receiving the greatest number of recommendations.
His responsibility is to choose the Knesset member he believes has the strongest prospect of successfully forming a government.
That decision can produce an outcome that differs from the apparent winner of the election.
A candidate whose party finished second could receive the mandate if he demonstrates a more realistic path to assembling a parliamentary majority.
Once the president assigns the task, the designated candidate ordinarily has 28 days to form a government.
The president may grant an extension of up to 14 additional days.
If the candidate fails, the president may turn to another Knesset member, setting off another round of negotiations.
If those efforts also fail, additional parliamentary procedures can follow, potentially leading to another election.
Israel has experienced this scenario repeatedly.
Between April 2019 and November 2022, the country held five national elections as competing political blocs struggled to establish stable governing majorities.
The period demonstrated that even a relatively strong electoral performance does not necessarily translate into the ability to govern.
In April 2019, Likud and Blue and White each won 35 seats, but Netanyahu was unable to assemble a coalition. Rather than allow another candidate an opportunity to form a government, the Knesset voted to dissolve itself, sending the country back to the polls.
A similar stalemate followed the September 2019 election, when neither Netanyahu nor Blue and White leader Benny Gantz could form a government.
The political deadlock eventually produced a unity government in 2020, but that arrangement collapsed, leading to another election.
In 2021, Netanyahu’s opponents succeeded in assembling a coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, even though Bennett’s Yamina party had won only seven seats.
Bennett became prime minister despite leading a faction considerably smaller than Likud, demonstrating that the ability to assemble a coalition can outweigh the number of seats won by an individual party.
The government brought together parties spanning much of Israel’s political spectrum, including right-wing, centrist, left-wing, and Arab factions.
Its formation illustrated the flexibility of Israel’s parliamentary system, but its eventual collapse also demonstrated the difficulty of maintaining a coalition among parties with sharply conflicting political priorities.
Those experiences provide important context for the current election.
Netanyahu may emerge with the largest party and still be unable to govern.
Eisenkot may command broad opposition support and still fail to persuade enough parties to cooperate.
A unity government could theoretically provide a solution, but such an arrangement would require political rivals to overcome major disagreements concerning leadership, government policy, and the distribution of authority.
A rotation agreement, under which two leaders serve as prime minister for designated periods, is another possible arrangement, although previous Israeli experiences have shown that such agreements can be difficult to maintain.
The final vote count could also change the calculations.
Hundreds of thousands of double-envelope ballots, including those cast by soldiers and other eligible voters outside their assigned polling stations, remained to be processed Wednesday.
Those ballots could affect the distribution of seats among qualifying parties and potentially alter the strength of the competing political blocs.
Parties close to the 3.25 percent electoral threshold were also awaiting the final results, since the entry of an additional party into the Knesset could change the allocation of mandates.
Until the count is completed, the precise parliamentary arithmetic remains uncertain.
Nevertheless, the central political challenge is already apparent.
Israel’s voters have elected a deeply divided Knesset in which the leading parties must negotiate with factions whose support cannot be taken for granted.
For Netanyahu, the challenge is finding a path beyond his traditional right-wing and Chareidi alliance.
For Eisenkot, it is assembling a coalition from parties that oppose Netanyahu but disagree among themselves about some of the country’s most important issues.
For the Chareidi parties, the question is whether their parliamentary representation can be used to secure meaningful protections for yeshiva bochurim and Torah institutions amid the continuing draft controversy.
And for President Herzog, the challenge will be identifying a candidate capable of transforming the election results into a functioning government.
The outcome may not be determined by which party finishes first, which bloc receives the largest combined vote, or which leader delivers the strongest election-night speech.
It will be determined by whether 61 members of the newly elected Knesset can agree to support the same government.
Until that happens, Israel may know who won the most votes without knowing who won the election.