SEVEN-POINT WARNING FOR REPUBLICANS: New Poll Shows Democrats Ahead in Congressional Race as Midterms Approach
Democrats hold a seven-point advantage over Republicans in a new nationwide congressional poll released just three weeks before the November 3 midterm elections, adding to concerns for the GOP as voters express dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy and the cost of living.
The NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ survey, conducted by TrueDot.ai from October 5 through October 9, found that 49 percent of likely voters would support Democratic congressional candidates, compared with 42 percent who would vote Republican. Another 8 percent remained undecided.
The poll surveyed 974 likely voters and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
The Democratic advantage also appeared in a separate question asking respondents which political party had done more to deserve their support, regardless of which party they actually intended to vote for.
On that measure, 46 percent selected the Democratic Party, while 40 percent chose the Republican Party. Nearly 7 percent named independents, and 8 percent said none of the options deserved their vote.
Geoffrey Skelley, chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ, said the closing weeks of the campaign would be particularly important in determining whether the Democratic polling advantage grows.
“The big question is if the lead grows more,” said Skelley. “You’re basically out of time for much to change. At this point, it is probably more just about engaging the voters in your party as best you can, and making some final cases to voters who might normally or might have in the past voted for your party, if you’re Republicans in particular, and then trying to make the case for why they should show up again.”
The survey also found President Trump facing substantial disapproval among respondents. His job approval rating stood at 38 percent, while 60 percent said they disapproved of his performance.
Economic concerns dominated voters’ priorities, with inflation identified as the country’s most pressing problem by 28 percent of respondents. Jobs and the broader economy followed at 20 percent, while immigration and border security were cited by 12 percent.
Those findings underscore the importance of economic conditions in the final stretch of the campaign, particularly as Republicans seek to defend their congressional seats amid continued voter frustration over household expenses.
Additional findings from the NewsNation survey suggest that independent voters could play a significant role in determining the composition of the next Congress. Among independents, Democrats received 44 percent support, compared with 34 percent for Republicans, giving the party a 10-point advantage within that group.
The poll also examined how firmly voters had settled on their choices. Among Democrats, 65 percent said their decision was final, compared with 60 percent of Republicans and just 35 percent of independents.
When asked what developments might cause them to reconsider their vote, 20 percent pointed to a scandal involving their preferred candidate, 18 percent cited candidates addressing their most important issue, and 15 percent mentioned rising prices.
Other recent national surveys have similarly found widespread dissatisfaction with economic conditions. An Associated Press-NORC poll released earlier this month found that just 17 percent of American adults approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while 26 percent approved of his overall management of the economy.
That survey, conducted September 24 through September 28 among 2,140 adults, also found that approximately 65 percent attributed persistently high prices primarily to Trump’s policies rather than circumstances beyond his control.
The AP-NORC findings additionally showed that 64 percent of respondents believed Trump had gone too far in imposing tariffs on foreign countries, an increase from 58 percent who expressed that view in January.
A separate Reuters/Ipsos survey released October 9 found that 78 percent of respondents believed Trump’s policies were contributing to rising living expenses. That poll questioned 4,506 adults and found dissatisfaction extending beyond Democratic voters, including among some Republicans.
The latest numbers come as both parties intensify their efforts to turn out supporters before Election Day. Republican strategists have identified inflation and voter enthusiasm as important factors in their congressional campaigns, while Democrats are seeking to capitalize on public concerns about household finances.
The generic congressional ballot measures which party voters would prefer to support in a hypothetical House election nationwide. Although it provides a broad indication of voter sentiment, it does not directly determine individual congressional contests, which depend on district-level conditions, candidates and turnout.
{Matzav.com}
