TALKS HIT A WALL: U.S.-Iran Negotiations Deadlocked as Qatar Struggles to Bridge Major Gaps and Fears of Renewed Fighting Grow
Intensive Qatari efforts to broker an agreement between the United States and Iran have failed to break a deepening diplomatic stalemate, with Washington demanding meaningful concessions on Tehran’s nuclear program and Iran insisting on relief from the American naval blockade and economic restrictions before making major moves of its own.
Three sources familiar with the negotiations told Axios that the latest round of shuttle diplomacy produced little progress, despite hours of discussions in New York and Washington and a new two-page compromise proposal drafted by Qatar. The impasse is increasing concern that the current diplomatic effort could collapse and major military operations could eventually resume.
Some U.S. officials reportedly believe President Trump could consider a return to large-scale combat operations after the November midterm elections if diplomacy fails. Trump himself said Sunday, when asked whether he was considering renewed strikes against Iran, “I am always thinking about it.”
Qatar intends to continue trying to bridge the divide, but mediators are becoming increasingly frustrated with the unwillingness of either Washington or Tehran to substantially alter its position, according to officials briefed on the discussions.
Qatari mediator Ali al-Thawadi spent several hours Monday in New York meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and members of the Iranian delegation. The discussions centered on a two-page Qatari compromise intended to find common ground between the competing American and Iranian demands.
At the center of the dispute is the sequence in which concessions would occur. Iran wants the United States to end its naval blockade, ease economic restrictions and permit greater Iranian oil exports as part of a process that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Washington, however, wants concrete Iranian concessions concerning its nuclear program as part of any agreement.
The Iranian proposal presented during the U.N. General Assembly called for the United States to release frozen Iranian funds, lift sanctions and end the blockade of Iranian ports. Tehran said those measures could be implemented within several days, after which Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations on a broader agreement, including its nuclear program, within approximately one week.
Trump rejected that proposal Saturday.
“They have made a proposal and I rejected it,” Trump said.
He nevertheless indicated a day later that he expected negotiations to continue.
“I expect more talks with Iran [this week]. They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal that I want to make. It is what we would have maybe agreed to a year ago. They overplayed their hand,” Trump said Sunday.
Following Monday’s meeting with the Iranian delegation, al-Thawadi traveled to Washington and met with Trump adviser Jared Kushner and other senior American officials. Vice President JD Vance participated in part of the discussions. The White House declined to publicly detail what was discussed.
For a time Monday, American officials were describing the negotiations much more optimistically.
U.S. officials briefed several news organizations that the indirect talks were “positive and constructive” and that Iran “indicated they are flexible on the nuclear issues.”
Those officials also indicated that Trump could consider sanctions relief and releasing frozen Iranian assets if Tehran took concrete steps to restrict its nuclear program. Axios reported that the administration’s message to Iran included precisely that possibility.
Trump publicly contradicted that account only hours later.
“Axios just released a story that ‘Trump’ offered Sanctions Relief and Frozen Funds to Iran. This is untrue. I offered them NOTHING!,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump also called the report “a HOAX” and demanded that Axios withdraw it. Reuters subsequently reported Trump’s denial.
The conflicting accounts underscored the uncertainty surrounding negotiations that are taking place almost entirely through intermediaries rather than sustained direct U.S.-Iranian talks.
One source familiar with Monday’s diplomacy said that despite the more upbeat descriptions from some American officials, there had been no meaningful breakthrough.
“It is stuck. The Iranians are asking for things the US can’t accept and the US thinks it is winning so there is no need for compromise,” the source told Axios.
The Trump administration appears to believe that time is working in Washington’s favor as Iran faces mounting economic and military pressure.
The United States on Tuesday imposed additional sanctions on ten individuals and entities in Iran, Hong Kong and Pakistan that Washington says have assisted Iran’s military procurement network. The sanctions are part of the administration’s “Operation Economic Outcast,” an effort to further restrict Tehran’s ability to obtain equipment and financing for its military.
Iran’s currency has meanwhile fallen to historic lows, dropping to roughly 2.5 million rials to the dollar as sanctions, the blockade and months of war continue to hammer the Iranian economy.
Washington also argues that Tehran has less leverage over the Strait of Hormuz than Iranian officials claim. U.S. military forces have been escorting or assisting commercial shipping through the strategically vital waterway, allowing significant quantities of Middle Eastern oil to return to world markets.
U.S. officials recently said approximately 60 million barrels of oil had passed through Hormuz over a 72-hour period. Trump separately said that more than 20 million barrels moved through the strait over one weekend, with a U.S. defense official confirming that approximately 22 million barrels were exported on Friday night alone.
Overall Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded in September to approximately 12.8 million barrels per day, their highest level since the war began, though still substantially below the roughly 18.8 million barrels per day recorded before the conflict.
Iran, however, continues to insist that Washington must address its conditions before a wider settlement can be reached.
Araghchi said the latest discussions with Qatar focused on finding a practical formula for satisfying those demands.
“We talked about ideas and how to find solutions to fulfil Iran’s conditions and how to implement those conditions,” he said. “They had some ideas, and we had a discussion that they will also present to the American side.”
Araghchi said the Qatari mediators could deliver Washington’s response to Tehran after he left New York.
“Whenever the Qataris have a response, they know how to get it to us,” he said.
He has described the latest mediation as an extension of messages being exchanged through Qatar and Pakistan, saying those communications have taken on “a more serious form” since Iran submitted its proposal.
Iranian officials have also pushed back against suggestions that the Trump administration currently holds the stronger hand.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Tuesday that Tehran had already made its conditions clear and accused Trump of being unable to choose between negotiations and continued warfare.
“Trump is incapable of making a decision,” Rezaei said, according to Iranian media. “Trump is trapped in a quagmire in which he can neither negotiate nor fight.”
Trump offered precisely the opposite assessment Tuesday, portraying Iran as increasingly desperate and predicting that Tehran would eventually be forced to relent.
“They are doing very poorly. I don’t know if they are ready to give up yet. They will give up. This is to stop a nuclear weapon. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”
The latest impasse follows months of intermittent diplomacy and fighting. The Strait of Hormuz has become one of the central bargaining points because the waterway handled roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the conflict. Iran sharply curtailed passage following the U.S.-Israeli offensive that began on Feb. 28, sending energy prices higher and disrupting global shipping.
The United States and Iran previously reached a tentative arrangement in June, but that effort ultimately failed to produce a durable settlement. American officials have accused Iran of subsequently violating commitments by attacking commercial vessels, while Tehran says Washington failed to fulfill its own commitments involving Israeli military operations and shipping arrangements.
Despite the present deadlock, neither side has publicly closed the door to diplomacy. Araghchi said over the weekend that Iran remains prepared to negotiate even after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal.
“We only care about our national interests. We are ready for negotiations,” Araghchi said.
“Although we heard from President Trump that he’s rejecting this deal … we are still waiting for an official response through the mediators,” he added.
The disagreement now appears to hinge less on whether negotiations should occur than on what must happen first. Tehran is seeking immediate relief from the blockade and economic pressure before reopening Hormuz and moving into wider nuclear negotiations, while Washington is unwilling to provide major concessions without receiving concrete nuclear commitments from Iran.
For Qatar, which has spent days shuttling proposals between the two governments, that sequencing dispute has become the central obstacle — and, for now, neither side appears prepared to blink.
