ELECTION NIGHT DRAMA: UTJ’s Seventh Seat Hangs in Balance as Channel 14 Gives Netanyahu 60 Seats, Other Networks Project Just 50
Israel’s election-night exit polls have produced sharply conflicting projections for the next Knesset, with Channel 14 placing Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s right-wing and chareidi bloc at 60 seats, just one short of a parliamentary majority, while Kan 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13 each project only 50 seats for the bloc.
The disagreement has particular significance for United Torah Judaism, whose seventh Knesset seat remains uncertain. Kan 11 and Channel 12 project six seats for UTJ, while Channel 13 and Channel 14 give the party seven, leaving its final representation dependent on the official count.
The differences among the television networks extend well beyond UTJ. Channel 14 projects Likud winning 30 seats, compared with 24 or 25 on the three other major networks. Meanwhile, Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party is projected to receive between 19 and 23 seats, and Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad party between 11 and 14.
The latest available exit-poll comparisons show the following projected parliamentary distribution:
Party Kan 11 Ch. 12 Ch. 13 Ch. 14 Likud 25 24 25 30 Yashar 21 22 23 19 B’Yachad 14 12 14 11 United Torah Judaism 6 6 7 7 Shas 6 8 6 9 Otzma Yehudit 7 6 6 7 Religious Zionism–Zehut 6 6 6 7 Democrats 10 9 9 9 Yisrael Beytenu 8 9 7 — Joint Arab List 10 11 10 10 Ra’am 7 7 7 7 Netanyahu bloc 50 50 50 60Channel 14’s reported individual party figures contain an inconsistency involving Yisrael Beytenu. Its published bloc totals are 60 for Netanyahu, 43 for the principal opposition, and 17 for the Arab parties, but one published party breakdown does not reconcile with those totals. The discrepancy has not been resolved, and no figure for Yisrael Beytenu is included in that column.
Two additional networks released exit polls. i24NEWS projected 55 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc, while Channel 16 projected 53. Both placed the Arab parties at a combined 16 seats. These results fall between Channel 14’s substantially more favorable projection for Netanyahu and the 50-seat estimates issued by the three other major networks.
For the chareidi parties, the exit polls point to a potentially significant reduction in parliamentary representation. United Torah Judaism and Shas entered the election holding a combined 18 seats, but their projected totals range from 12 seats on Kan 11 to 16 on Channel 14.
The projected decline is particularly pronounced for Shas, which won 11 seats in 2022. Kan 11 and Channel 13 each project six seats for Aryeh Deri’s party, while Channel 12 gives it eight and Channel 14 nine.
United Torah Judaism’s situation is somewhat different. The party is projected to lose either one seat or none, depending on which exit poll proves closest to the final result.
UTJ officials had spent Election Day expressing concern over unusually high voter turnout across the country, particularly in Arab communities and traditional opposition strongholds. They also faced competition from smaller chareidi political lists that sought support from voters dissatisfied with the established chareidi parties.
Those smaller lists are not projected to cross the electoral threshold in the major exit polls, although votes cast for parties that fail to qualify for the Knesset could still influence the allocation of seats among the successful parties.
The election was marked by exceptionally high participation. By 8 p.m., 74.3% of eligible Israelis had voted, surpassing the final turnout recorded in the previous Knesset election.
The high turnout also increased the number of votes needed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold, creating additional uncertainty for smaller parties and affecting calculations of how many votes established parties would need to maintain their representation.
For Netanyahu, the gap between the television projections is substantial. Channel 14’s 60-seat estimate places his bloc within one seat of a parliamentary majority, while the other major networks show it considerably further away.
The opposition parties led by Eisenkot, Bennett, Lieberman, and Yair Golan also fall short of a majority in the projections. The Arab parties, which are expected to control between 16 and 18 seats, could become an important factor in the subsequent coalition discussions, although the political disagreements among the parties complicate any potential governing arrangement.
The official vote count will now determine which of the competing projections more closely reflects the electorate’s decision.
Israel’s Central Elections Committee has begun the process of tabulating ballots, but its publicly accessible results page was still indicating that the count was pending when checked for this update. The exit polls therefore remain the principal available indication of the election’s outcome.
Additional ballots, including those cast by soldiers and other voters using special double envelopes, will be counted separately, and the final allocation of Knesset seats may change as those votes are included.
For United Torah Judaism, the immediate question remains whether it has secured enough votes to retain its seventh seat. With two major networks projecting six mandates and two others projecting seven, that issue remains unresolved.
The broader picture is equally uncertain. The exit polls agree that Likud remains Israel’s largest individual party, but they differ sharply over Netanyahu’s overall parliamentary strength and the size of the chareidi factions.
Until the actual ballots are counted, neither the fate of UTJ’s seventh seat nor the composition of Israel’s next governing coalition can be established.
{Matzav.com}
