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With the Memorial Day weekend approaching and the busy summer driving season about to begin, rising gasoline prices are emerging as a potential political challenge for President Donald Trump and Republicans heading into the November midterm elections. Analysts warn that unless tensions in the Middle East ease, fuel prices in the U.S. could climb to record levels.

According to GasBuddy, the national average price for gasoline reached $4.52 per gallon as of Tuesday evening. Prices first crossed the $4 mark in late March, a level not seen since August 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Prices vary significantly by region, with California posting the highest statewide average at $6.14 per gallon, GasBuddy reported.

The spike in gasoline prices has followed a sharp rise in crude oil markets, driven largely by concerns over disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The global Brent crude benchmark has increased by 58% since the conflict began.

“The Strait of Hormuz shutdown continues to slowly push oil and gasoline prices higher, but we’ve also seen refining issues that have enhanced some of those increases,” GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said.

Additional supply pressures emerged last week when BP’s refinery in Whiting, Indiana—capable of processing 440,000 barrels per day—temporarily shut down part of its operations due to a power outage. The company later confirmed that operations had resumed.

“If the Strait ⁠of Hormuz does not open, I would expect that gas prices this summer would ⁠probably stay above $4.50 a gallon,” De Haan said.

Before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passed daily through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical chokepoint for global energy markets.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that U.S. gasoline inventories are being depleted more quickly than usual for this time of year. Their projections suggest stockpiles could drop below 200 million barrels by late August, approaching historically low summer levels.

Government data showed that U.S. gasoline inventories declined by more than 6 million barrels last week, bringing total stocks to 222.3 million barrels as of April 24—the lowest level since December and more than 2 million barrels below the five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, demand averaged 8.95 million barrels over four weeks, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the same period last year.

Morgan Stanley added that consumer demand has remained steady even with prices above $4 per gallon. “It is not driving the draws but it’s also not soft enough to slow the supply-driven stock draws.”

U.S. gasoline futures were trading at approximately $3.64 per gallon.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has privately acknowledged to close associates that the country’s economy is on the brink of total collapse, warning that even if international sanctions are lifted, billions of dollars in American assistance would still be required to stabilize the nation, according to a report aired Tuesday evening.

The remarks, reported by Channel 14, reveal a far more dire reality behind the scenes in Tehran than what is publicly presented. Pezeshkian, who is associated with Iran’s reformist camp, reportedly expressed deep concern about the country’s future, stating that key systems have already broken down and that rebuilding them would be extremely difficult even under improved conditions.

“Without American assistance – we will not recover”

According to the report, the Iranian president told those close to him that the only viable path out of the severe economic crisis is reaching a political agreement that would allow for active financial support from the United States. Without such aid, Pezeshkian warned, Iran will be unable to recover from the economic damage it has suffered in recent years.

His comments come amid growing internal tensions within Iran’s leadership. Senior figures in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and hardline factions are reportedly pushing for increased military escalation against Western and regional powers. At the same time, Pezeshkian and his allies have attempted to restrain such moves, fearing the economic and international consequences. These divisions have become more visible in connection with recent attacks in the United Arab Emirates, where competing approaches within the leadership have come to the surface.

Deepening Rift in Iran’s Leadership

The president appears to recognize the severity of the country’s economic situation and is signaling that without a significant shift in foreign policy and improved relations with the West, Iran will struggle to survive economically in the long term. The country has been grappling for an extended period with soaring inflation, high unemployment, and a sharp decline in the value of its currency, all of which have fueled social unrest and protests nationwide.

Reports from Iran International indicate that Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are working together in an effort to remove Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi from his position. The two accuse Araghchi of acting as a subordinate to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ahmad Vahidi and of taking direct instructions from him regarding negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, bypassing the authority of the president.

U.S. Sanctions Taking a Heavy Toll

The American sanctions campaign appears to be having a significant impact. According to reports, Iran has been forced to return aging oil tankers—some decades old—to active service in order to cope with a growing storage crisis. One tanker, 29 years old and long inactive, has reportedly been redeployed near Kharg Island, the country’s main oil export hub.

President Donald Trump described Iran’s economic condition in stark terms: “The naval blockade, to a certain extent, is more effective than the bombings. The Iranians are choking – like a fat pig. And it’s going to get worse for them.”

His comments come as the United States and Israel continue close security coordination regarding potential actions against Iran.

President Calls for Immediate Energy Cuts

Amid the worsening economic situation, Pezeshkian has also issued an unusual direct appeal to the Iranian public, urging citizens to immediately reduce electricity and energy consumption. While officials have publicly claimed there is no current shortage in Tehran, the president indicated that the country’s infrastructure is under deliberate attack by the United States and Israel.

Pezeshkian’s statements suggest that even at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership, there is a growing recognition that the situation has reached a critical point, and that without major external intervention, the country lacks the economic tools necessary to halt its continued decline.

{Matzav.com}