When President Biden exited the 2024 presidential race, it opened up the possibility of a contested convention to decide his successor as the Democratic nominee. However, the time frame for any candidate other than Kamala Harris, whom Biden endorsed shortly after his announcement on Sunday, is quite tight. To get a candidate on the ballot in all 50 states, names must be submitted by August 7, with Ohio having the earliest deadline.
The Democratic National Convention isn’t scheduled to start until August 19, 12 days after Ohio’s deadline. Nevertheless, Biden’s decision could potentially revive the old tradition of delegates selecting their candidate on the convention floor.
Biden finally yielded to growing calls from fellow Democrats to reconsider his bid for a second term after a poor debate performance against Donald Trump on June 27. Trump’s resilience, even after an assassination attempt, has further boosted his standing in the polls.
Here’s what we know about the potential for a contested convention:
How Would a Contested Convention Be Triggered?
According to current DNC rules: “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” Biden, 81, has secured 3,896 “pledged” delegates from primaries and caucuses where he faced little opposition, making up over 90% of the regular delegate pool.
With Biden out, these delegates would be free to vote for any candidate who enters the race. Biden’s withdrawal allows other Democratic contenders to lobby for delegate support before the voting day. The DNC plans to hold a virtual roll call to choose the nominee between August 1 and August 7, which was initially expected to confirm Biden. However, this vote might be delayed to allow more time for campaigning.
The ‘Loophole’
Despite Biden endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him, DNC rules do not enforce his choice. Last week, amid growing opposition to his candidacy, Biden said delegates are “obviously free to do whatever they want,” but he predicted that a contested convention against him was “not going to happen.” Now, with Biden out, all bets are off.
DNC delegate Elaine Kamarck, co-hosted a Zoom call with Delegates Are Democracy on Friday, explaining the rules for delegates unfamiliar with the prospect of a contested convention. This group, formed by Democratic activists last week, aims to educate delegates about their options in August. Kamarck pointed out different interpretations of the “in good conscience” rule, suggesting a “loophole” allowing delegates to vote for any Democratic candidate.
Who Would the Top Candidates Be?
Any Democrat eligible for the presidency could run in a contested convention scenario. Until Biden’s withdrawal on Sunday, no Democrats had announced a challenge against him. By Sunday night, no new candidates had entered the race.
Harris, 59, could potentially access the funds already raised by the Biden-Harris campaign. She also benefits from name recognition, White House experience, and national vetting. Other candidates would struggle to gain visibility with only weeks before the convention, set to start on August 17. Potential candidates include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and former First Lady Michelle Obama, although she has repeatedly stated she has no political aspirations.
Would the Voters Decide?
Voters would not directly participate in selecting Biden’s replacement on the convention floor. Delegates might use polls or voter outreach to gauge public opinion before casting their votes.
Who Would be the Vice-Presidential Nominee?
The DNC holds a separate vote for the vice-presidential nominee. Presidential candidates would likely propose their preferred VP choice, leaving delegates to decide.
The Brokered Convention Scenario
A brokered convention would see Democratic candidates and their delegates competing on the convention floor. In this scenario, delegates would arrive at the United Center in Chicago uncommitted. Behind closed doors, local and state party officials and politicians could broker deals to secure delegate support for certain candidates. This could result in multiple rounds of voting before a nominee is selected. For instance, in 1924, Democratic candidate John Davis was chosen as the nominee after 103 rounds of voting. Davis then lost to Republican President Calvin Coolidge.
The last brokered convention for Democrats was in 1952, when delegates took three ballots to nominate Adlai Stevenson, who then lost to Dwight D. Eisenhower. In recent decades, conventions have typically confirmed a pre-chosen candidate.
Why an Open or Brokered Convention Might Not Happen
In May, the DNC planned to formally renominate Biden and Harris via a “virtual roll call” before the convention to meet Ohio’s August 7 certification deadline, ahead of the August 19-22 convention dates. If the DNC proceeds with this plan and Harris or another candidate receives the necessary delegate votes, it would preclude an open or brokered convention.
In late May, the Ohio legislature passed a bill extending the state’s ballot access deadline from August 7 to September 1. However, the bill won’t take effect until September 1, prompting some Democrats to fear Republican challenges to the new date, potentially keeping the nominee off the Ohio ballot.
Up until Sunday, the DNC had planned to proceed with the virtual nomination, but this was not finalized. The DNC is expected to meet again this week to decide whether to continue with the early nomination vote or wait until the convention. Canceling the virtual vote would indicate a lack of consensus among party leaders that Harris should be the Democratic nominee for president.
{Matzav.com}
