Western Intelligence: Khamenei Quietly Readies Escape to Moscow as Protests Roil Iran
Iran’s supreme leader has quietly authorized contingency measures to get out of the capital if the security apparatus falters amid the widening unrest, according to a Western intelligence assessment shared with The Sunday Times.
The profile portrays Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 86, as increasingly brittle following last year’s 12-day war with Israel, describing him as “weaker, both mentally and physically.” Analysts say that period deepened what they characterize as an overriding fixation on staying alive.
During the conflict, the assessment says, Khamenei largely stayed inside a fortified bunker, reinforcing what it calls his “obsession with survival.” The same document depicts him as a “paranoid” figure who mixes rigid ideology with tactical flexibility when circumstances demand it.
Officials familiar with the assessment say a fallback plan has been mapped out in case there are signs of defection or disobedience among forces tasked with suppressing demonstrations. In that scenario, Khamenei would leave Tehran with a tight group of relatives and trusted aides.
“The ‘plan B’ is for Khamenei and his very close circle of associates and family, including his son and nominated heir apparent, Mojtaba,” an intelligence source told The Times.
The preparations are said to echo the events of 2024, when Bashar Al-Assad departed Syria for Moscow ahead of opposition advances into Damascus. According to the intelligence source, Khamenei’s inner circle has “plotted an exit route out of Tehran” and has been “gathering assets, properties abroad and cash to facilitate their safe passage.”
Former Israeli intelligence officer Beni Sabti said the most likely destination would be Moscow, Russia. He argued there are few alternatives, adding that “there is no other place for him,” and explaining that the Iranian leader “admires Putin, while the Iranian culture is more similar to the Russian culture”.
Financially, the supreme leader presides over an immense web of holdings. A 2013 Reuters investigation estimated that assets controlled through Setad, a sprawling network of foundations, totaled about $95 billion. The assessment also notes that numerous senior regime figures already have family members living overseas, including in the United States, Canada, and Dubai.
The intelligence briefing arrives as demonstrations fueled by economic distress continue in cities across Iran. Protesters accuse the Revolutionary Guard, the Basij, police, and the army of responding with live ammunition, tear gas, and water cannons—forces that ultimately answer to Khamenei.
Over the weekend, the supreme leader addressed the unrest publicly. Speaking in Tehran during a Shiite holiday, he acknowledged the economic pressure facing ordinary Iranians, saying the grievances were “just.” He added, “The shopkeepers have protested against this situation and that is completely fair.”
At the same time, he drew a sharp line between protest and disorder, warning there would be no tolerance for what he labeled violence. While saying “authorities must have dialogue with protesters,” he insisted that “it is useless to have dialogue with rioters. Those must be put in their place.”
{Matzav.com}
