A fresh wave of polling data suggests that the political tides in New York may be turning faster than Democrats expected — and Rep. Elise Stefanik is at the center of it. Once considered untouchable in her deep-blue stronghold, Gov. Kathy Hochul now appears vulnerable heading into the 2026 election, with Stefanik emerging as the clear Republican frontrunner.
According to a survey conducted by J.L. Partners, Stefanik would cruise through a GOP primary and go toe-to-toe with Hochul in a general election matchup. Among 400 likely Republican primary voters, Stefanik commands 74% support, while Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman trails far behind at just 5%. The remainder of respondents remain undecided.
The poll, which was carried out November 9–10 and adjusted to reflect gender, age, ethnicity, and region, has a margin of error of 4.9%. The results highlight one major difference: name recognition. More than three-quarters of Republican voters hold a favorable view of Stefanik, while over 75% of respondents said they either didn’t know Blakeman or had no opinion of him.
As J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson told the New York Post, “Stefanik seems to dominate the Republican vote. It’s a done deal.”
The real challenge, however, will come in the general election — and even there, Hochul’s position appears shaky. In a head-to-head matchup, Hochul edges out Stefanik 46% to 43%, a virtual tie within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error. Against Blakeman, Hochul leads 47% to 36%, suggesting Stefanik gives Republicans their strongest shot at reclaiming the governor’s mansion.
That same survey of 500 likely voters, taken during the same period, found that just 37% said they would vote to reelect Hochul or even consider it, while a striking 55% said it’s “time for someone new.” The numbers expose deep dissatisfaction over high costs, ongoing population loss, and controversial criminal-justice policies — particularly cashless bail and parole reforms — that critics say have made New York feel less safe.
Those frustrations have helped catapult Stefanik into the spotlight. Now serving her sixth term in Congress and a member of House Republican leadership, she has centered her message around affordability and law and order, echoing President Donald Trump’s call to roll back “cashless bail” and restore safety to New York communities.
Momentum is building quickly behind her campaign. As she officially launched her bid for governor, 12 GOP state senators — led by Senate Republican Leader Rob Ortt — immediately endorsed her candidacy, describing her as “the fighter New York needs” to counter the “radical progressive agenda coming out of Albany.”
She’s also earned the backing of nine county executives from across the state, who blame Hochul’s “failed progressive policies” for driving families and businesses out of New York.
Still, Johnson cautioned that a heavy Democratic turnout could keep Hochul afloat. Yet, he noted that a spike in Republican voter registration and rising frustration among independents — fueled by the election of democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as New York City’s incoming mayor — may signal a deeper political shift.
J.L. Partners, which accurately forecasted Trump’s 2024 victory over then–Vice President Kamala Harris, now rates the 2026 governor’s race as a toss-up. And for the first time in decades, Republicans see a genuine opportunity to take back the Empire State.
{Matzav.com}
