Israel Raises Alarm Over Iranian Missile Drills as Possible Cover for Surprise Strike
Israeli intelligence officials believe Tehran is accelerating efforts to restore its missile capabilities, pushing harder than at any point since the 12-day conflict in June. According to Israeli assessments, Iran’s arsenal was significantly reduced during that war, with missile stockpiles dropping from roughly 3,000 to about 1,500 and the number of launchers cut in half, from around 400 to 200.
Against that backdrop, Western intelligence agencies have detected activity that has raised fresh concern. Iran International reported on Shabbos that intelligence services observed “unusual aerial activity” involving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force. The report said the movements and coordination were “beyond normal patterns” among drone, missile, and air-defense units, prompting increased scrutiny.
Israeli and American officials cited by Axios said one working assessment is that the activity could still be part of a military exercise. However, they stressed that the scale of the maneuvers and the level of synchronization among different forces have attracted particular attention and fueled anxiety.
Israeli officials have conveyed those worries directly to Washington. According to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, Israeli representatives warned the Trump administration that recent IRGC missile exercises might be more than routine training and could serve as preparation for an attack on Israel. The report cited three Israeli and US officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.
Sources familiar with the intelligence said that, so far, the information collected points mainly to force movements within Iran rather than clear attack preparations. Even so, Israeli officials remain on edge, noting that Israel’s willingness to assume risk has sharply diminished since the Hamas invasion on October 7, 2023.
One Israeli source told Axios that similar alerts were issued about six weeks earlier, after Iranian missile movements were detected but ultimately did not lead to action. “The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” the source said.
American intelligence officials, meanwhile, told Axios that the United States currently does not see signs that Iran is preparing an imminent strike.
Behind the scenes, coordination between the two militaries has intensified. According to the report, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir spoke on Saturday with US Central Command commander Adm. Brad Cooper to outline Israel’s concerns about the IRGC missile maneuvers that began several days earlier. Zamir warned that the missile activity, together with other operational movements, could be used to mask a surprise attack and pressed for close US-Israel cooperation on defensive steps.
Cooper then traveled to Tel Aviv on Sunday, where he met with Zamir and other senior IDF officials to review the situation. The IDF declined to comment publicly on the meetings, and CENTCOM did not respond to a request for comment.
Diplomatic discussions are also looming. Israeli sources said Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is expected to meet US President Donald Trump in Miami on December 29. NBC News reported on Saturday that Netanyahu plans to raise concerns about Iran’s expanding ballistic missile program and the possibility of another Israeli strike against Iran in 2026 during that meeting.
{Matzav.com}