Warning in Knesset: “The Next October 7 Could Come From Inside a Prison” as Israel Grapples With Severe Overcrowding
A stark warning was sounded in the Knesset on Wednesday as lawmakers approved another extension of Israel’s prison emergency, with National Security Committee chairman MK Tzvika Fogel warning that without urgent action to address overcrowding and staffing shortages, “the next October 7” could originate from inside the country’s prisons.
The committee approved extending the special incarceration emergency for another month, through October 15, 2026. The government had requested a two-month extension, but lawmakers shortened it amid the approaching elections and concerns over whether the temporary committee expected to operate in the next Knesset would be able to conduct another review at the appropriate time.
The emergency designation gives the Israel Prison Service exceptional authority to hold prisoners and detainees under conditions that would ordinarily violate statutory minimum living-space requirements. In some circumstances, inmates can also be housed without individual beds.
According to figures presented by the Ministry of National Security, 23,049 prisoners and detainees were being held in IPS facilities as of Wednesday morning. Israel’s prison system has been under extraordinary pressure since the October 7 massacre and the ensuing war, with thousands of additional security prisoners entering the system. Earlier official Knesset data showed the prison population rising by more than 6,850 inmates between the beginning of the war and January 2026.
Authorities are now working to dramatically expand capacity. The Ministry of National Security expects approximately 3,000 additional spaces for security prisoners to become available by the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, according to information presented at Wednesday’s hearing.
The Israel Prison Service has also stepped up recruitment as it attempts to cope with the growing inmate population and a shortage of personnel.
Officials told the committee that 1,115 new prison officers have been recruited through targeted campaigns, specialized recruitment programs and incentives for personnel serving at facilities in southern Israel. The IPS is also preparing to open a facility in Yerushalayim and is pursuing additional recruits from the chareidi community, recently discharged soldiers and candidates brought in through special recruitment and referral programs.
Israel’s prison-capacity crisis predates October 7 but worsened dramatically after the massacre and war. A State Comptroller report discussed by a Knesset committee in June found that approximately 16,000 people were incarcerated before the war, including more than 5,000 security prisoners. The total subsequently climbed to approximately 23,000, including roughly 10,000 security prisoners.
The comptroller’s findings also indicated that Israel had not sufficiently prepared for an emergency scenario requiring the rapid absorption of thousands of security prisoners. Planning had relied heavily on overcrowding existing facilities and expanding current prisons rather than maintaining enough reserve capacity for a major security emergency.
Fogel warned Wednesday that repeatedly extending the prison emergency could not serve as a permanent solution to the underlying problem.
He said the growing inmate population and pressure on prison facilities were creating risks for IPS personnel and argued that additional government ministries needed to become directly involved in finding a long-term solution.
“If additional government ministries do not get involved quickly, it could be that the next October 7 will not come from Yehudah and Shomron, but from inside a prison,” Fogel warned.
The concern surrounding prison security is not merely theoretical. Israeli prison officials have previously warned of efforts by security prisoners to coordinate disturbances and accumulate improvised weapons. During a Knesset hearing last year, a senior IPS official said intelligence indicated increasing friction inside prisons, including “the intentions and accumulation of cold weapons and coordination of protest measures.”
At Wednesday’s hearing, however, officials also stressed that the overcrowding problem extends beyond security prisoners.
A representative of the Israel Bar Association told lawmakers that only 16 percent of applications for early release are currently approved. She argued that broader use of early release for suitable criminal prisoners could alleviate overcrowding while allowing those inmates to enter rehabilitation programs outside prison.
Fogel said that while Israel must contend with the large population of security prisoners, the government also has an obligation to rehabilitate criminal inmates and avoid incarceration conditions that could increase the likelihood that they return to crime after their release.
The government has been adding prison capacity at several facilities. Earlier this year, the Knesset was told that construction had been completed on 480 additional spaces at Maasiyahu Prison, while expansion projects were underway at Tzalmon, Ofer, Ketziot and Saharonim.
The scale of the problem has changed considerably since October 7. Official figures presented in September 2025 showed 24,715 people incarcerated at the time — an increase of approximately 8,360 since the massacre — including 11,115 security prisoners.
Wednesday’s one-month extension gives the IPS additional time to operate under the emergency provisions while construction and recruitment continue.
But Fogel made clear that, in his view, expanding facilities and repeatedly renewing emergency measures cannot substitute for a comprehensive government response, warning that overcrowding, insufficient staffing and a large concentration of security prisoners could ultimately develop into a serious security threat if the problem is allowed to fester.
{Matzav.com}
