The United States may be on the brink of its first-ever population decline, potentially as soon as this year, far earlier than long-range forecasts once suggested. New estimates from federal agencies and independent economists indicate that President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement has sharply reduced net migration, pushing the country toward a demographic milestone never before recorded, Bloomberg reported Monday.
For generations, population gains in the U.S. were sustained largely by immigration, which compensated for declining birth rates and a rising number of deaths as the population aged.
That long-standing pattern appears to be breaking faster than expected. Analysts from across the ideological spectrum now say that immigration policies enacted during Trump’s second term are hastening a demographic shift that had previously been projected to occur much later.
As recently as 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau’s long-term outlook estimated that the nation’s population would not begin to contract until 2081.
More recent figures, however, suggest that schedule may have dramatically changed.
According to Census Bureau data released this week, the U.S. population increased by only 0.5%, or about 1.8 million people, in the year ending July 1, 2025. That marked the slowest annual growth rate since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Officials attributed most of that slowdown to a steep decline in net migration, which dropped to 1.3 million from 2.7 million the previous year.
During the same period, births exceeded deaths by 519,000, a margin that continues to shrink each year.
The Congressional Budget Office has warned that by around 2030, deaths are expected to surpass births entirely, meaning immigration would become the only factor preventing population loss.
Census officials now anticipate that net migration will decline even further, to roughly 316,000 in the year ending July 2026, with the United States, in their words, “trending toward negative net migration.”
Independent analysts suggest the shift may already be underway. Economists from the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution estimate that net migration may have turned negative in 2025, with the immigrant population shrinking by between 10,000 and 295,000 people.
Their projections for this year are even more stark, forecasting outcomes ranging from a modest increase of 185,000 immigrants to a decline of as many as 925,000 — estimates calculated before additional legal immigration restrictions were announced this year.
Should immigration losses outweigh the already diminishing excess of births over deaths, the total U.S. population would begin to fall. Under the most pessimistic scenario outlined by the researchers, the population would shrink by more than 400,000 people this year.
“We could be at around zero or negative on population,” said Tara Watson, director of the Brookings Center for Economic Security and Opportunity and a co-author of the analysis.
Demographers note that since the first national census was conducted in 1790, the United States has never officially recorded a nationwide population decline.
Some historians point to 1918 as a possible exception, when the Spanish flu outbreak combined with the overseas deployment of millions of U.S. troops may have temporarily reduced the number of people living in the country.
Economists caution that the consequences of reduced immigration and potential population decline would likely unfold gradually, affecting labor force growth, economic output, and government finances over time rather than triggering immediate shocks.
The Trump administration maintains that stricter immigration policies will strengthen opportunities for native-born workers and relieve strain on housing markets and public services.
White House officials have also cited expanded workforce training initiatives and broader access to temporary worker visas as measures intended to address potential labor shortages.
{Matzav.com}
