Poll: Ciattarelli, Sherrill In Dead Heat For NJ Governor In Final Days of Campaign
The battle for New Jersey’s governorship has become a razor-thin contest, with a new Emerson College/Pix 11/The Hill poll showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding 49% support compared to 48% for Republican Jack Ciattarelli. When undecided voters were asked which way they lean, Sherrill’s edge ticked up slightly to 50% against Ciattarelli’s 48%.
The results mark a stunning turnaround for Ciattarelli, who has managed to erase what was once a commanding 20-point lead for Sherrill earlier in the summer. With Election Day rapidly approaching, strategists on both sides say the race could hinge entirely on turnout.
Demographic divides continue to shape the race. Women favor Sherrill by a significant 18-point margin, while men back Ciattarelli by 16 points — a gap that has widened on both sides since September. “Since last month, Ciattarelli’s lead among men increased by four points, and Sherill’s lead among women grew by eight points,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Economic concerns are dominating voter priorities in the Garden State. A majority — 52% — identified the economy as their top issue, reflecting frustration with New Jersey’s notoriously high taxes and cost of living. Just 14% said “threats to democracy” were their main concern, while 11% cited housing affordability. Only 5% of voters pointed to immigration policy or health care as their biggest issue.
Both candidates appear to be evenly matched not only in polling but also in likability. Sherrill earns a 47% favorable rating among voters, with an identical 47% viewing her unfavorably. Ciattarelli’s numbers are virtually the same, with 48% viewing him positively and 48% negatively.
The poll also painted a grim picture for outgoing Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, whose approval numbers have sunk as he completes his final term. Only 34% of voters approve of his performance, while half disapprove and 16% remain neutral.
President Donald Trump’s ratings in the state are somewhat higher but still underwater. The survey found that 45% of respondents approve of his job performance, while 53% disapprove.
Emerson College conducted the survey between October 25 and 28, polling 1,000 registered voters using text messages, automated calls, and a vetted online panel. The margin of error is plus or minus three percentage points.
Last month’s Emerson survey also placed the two contenders in a 43% tie, a result that initially stood out from other polls but has since been validated as the race tightened dramatically.
Overall polling averages now show Sherrill holding a slim 3.7-point advantage in the RealClearPolitics aggregate, down sharply from her 9.3-point lead at the start of September. Notably, the same polling averages underestimated Ciattarelli’s strength by roughly five points during his near-upset against Phil Murphy in 2021.
Still, there are warning signs for the GOP challenger. Early voting data compiled by Michael Pruser, Director of Data Science for Decision, indicates that 54% of ballots so far have come from registered Democrats, compared with 28% from Republicans — a turnout imbalance that could prove decisive in the final tally.
{Matzav.com}