Feed aggregator

A classified CIA report presented this week to senior U.S. officials concludes that Iran may be able to withstand the Trump administration’s naval blockade for roughly four months before experiencing a serious economic breakdown, according to a report published Thursday by The Washington Post.

That internal evaluation stands in contrast to repeated statements from the White House suggesting that Tehran is close to collapse.

According to individuals familiar with the intelligence findings, Iran has managed to preserve a substantial portion of its missile capabilities despite weeks of strikes carried out by U.S. and Israeli forces.

One American official indicated that Iran still holds approximately 70% of its pre-conflict missile inventory and about 75% of its mobile launching systems. The same official noted that the country has reopened underground storage sites and repaired parts of its weapons infrastructure that had been damaged.

These conclusions differ from comments made Wednesday by President Donald Trump, who described Iran’s missile arsenal as being largely destroyed.

”Our missiles are mostly decimated, they have probably 18, 19%, but not a lot by comparison to what they had,” Trump said at the White House.

Even as administration figures continue to emphasize the success of the blockade, they also acknowledge that Iran remains capable of resisting.

A senior U.S. intelligence official told the Post: ”The president’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage — severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly likewise maintained that the economic campaign is rapidly taking a toll on Tehran.

”During Operation Epic Fury, Iran was crushed militarily,” Kelly said. ”Now, they are being strangled economically by Operation Economic Fury and losing $500 million per day thanks to the United States military’s successful blockade of Iranian ports.

“The Iranian regime knows full well their current reality is not sustainable, and President Trump holds all the cards as negotiators work to make a deal.”

At the same time, officials cited in the report said Iran has adjusted to the pressure by stockpiling oil at sea, cutting back on production to protect infrastructure, and possibly preparing alternative land-based export routes through Central Asia.

One U.S. official suggested that the CIA’s estimate may actually understate Iran’s ability to endure.

”The leadership has gotten more radical, determined, and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance,” the official said.

”Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.”

Experts also pointed to Iran’s drone arsenal as an ongoing danger to international shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Former Israeli intelligence official Danny Citrinowicz told the Post that even relatively small-scale drone strikes could disrupt global oil flows, since insurers would likely refuse to cover vessels operating in such conditions.

Citrinowicz said that while there have been tactical successes on the battlefield, the long-term strategic picture remains unclear.

”The problem is they don’t think they need to capitulate,” he said.

He later added on social media that the conflict could ultimately reinforce Iran’s leadership rather than weaken it, leaving the country with meaningful missile strength and ongoing uranium enrichment capabilities despite continued U.S. and Israeli military pressure.

New polling indicates shifting political momentum in Israel, with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu widening his advantage while the joint political effort of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid shows signs of weakening.

A Channel 12 News survey published Thursday night found that if elections were held today, Netanyahu’s Likud would be tied with the Bennett-Lapid “Together” party, with each receiving 25 seats. The figure represents a one-seat drop for the Bennett-Lapid alliance compared to the previous week’s poll.

The survey also showed a slight decline for Gadi Eisenkot, whose “Yisra!” party fell by one seat to 14. The broader opposition bloc dropped to 59 seats—down one from the previous poll—without counting Arab parties.

In contrast, Yair Golan’s Democrats party gained one seat, rising to 11. Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu held steady at 9 seats, as did Aryeh Deri’s Shas and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, each also at 9.

United Torah Judaism, led by Yitzchak Goldknopf, strengthened to 8 seats. Among Arab parties, Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am and the Hadash-Ta’al alliance were each projected to win 5 seats.

Several parties remained below the electoral threshold, including Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism (2.9%), Yoaz Hendel’s Reservists party (1.0%), Benny Gantz’s Blue and White (1.5%), and Sami Abu Shehadeh’s Balad (0.8%).

The poll also explored hypothetical political alliances. If Eisenkot’s party were to merge with Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, the joint list would become the largest faction with 25 seats, surpassing both Likud and the Bennett-Lapid alliance, each projected at 24. In that scenario, the opposition bloc would reach 60 seats—without Arab party support—while the coalition would fall to 50.

Another scenario examined a potential alliance between Hili Tropper and Hendel. In that case, Likud would drop slightly to 24 seats but still emerge as the largest party. The Bennett-Lapid list would decline to 23 seats, and Eisenkot’s party to 13. The new Tropper-Hendel list would cross the threshold with 5 seats.

When respondents were asked who is best suited to serve as prime minister, Netanyahu led in every matchup. Against Bennett, he received 39% support compared to Bennett’s 36%. The same margin held against Eisenkot, 39% to 36%. Against Lieberman, Netanyahu maintained 39%, while Lieberman trailed with 24%.

A separate poll conducted by Channel 14 and the NEXT DATA research firm painted an even stronger picture for Netanyahu. Based on a sample of 721 respondents, the survey showed the right-wing bloc maintaining a solid 65-seat majority—enough to form a stable government under Netanyahu’s leadership.

In that poll, Likud surged to 34 seats, making it the clear largest party. The Bennett-Lapid alliance dropped sharply to 16 seats—four fewer than it had received in the first poll following its formation. Eisenkot’s party climbed slightly to 13 seats.

Among other parties, Shas was projected at 10 seats and United Torah Judaism at 8. Otzma Yehudit, the Democrats, and Yisrael Beiteinu each received 8 seats, while Religious Zionism stood at 5.

The broader center-left bloc lagged far behind, totaling just 45 seats. Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am each received 5 seats but were not seen as playing a decisive role in coalition-building. Balad (2.1%) and Blue and White (1.8%) remained below the threshold.

On the question of leadership, Netanyahu held a commanding lead, with 56% of respondents saying he is best suited to serve as prime minister. Eisenkot placed a distant second with 20%, followed by Bennett at 18%, Lieberman at 5%, and Gantz at just 1%.

The poll also measured public opinion on security issues. A majority of 59% said Israel should seize additional territory in Lebanon to eliminate the threat posed by Hezbollah, while 32% opposed such a move and 9% said they had no opinion.

Another question examined perceptions of coordination between Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the campaign against Iran. A majority of 58% described the cooperation as “full and close,” while 33% said it was only partial, and 9% believed there was no coordination at all.

Israeli military police carried out coordinated overnight raids on the homes of yeshiva bochurim in several cities, including Herzliya, Tel Aviv, and Dimona, as part of a renewed wave of arrest attempts, though in each case the targeted individuals were not taken into custody.

The operation is part of a broader series of enforcement actions against yeshiva students reported over the past week.

The most dramatic incident occurred in Herzliya. At approximately 4 a.m., military police forces arrived at the home of a talmid from Yeshivas Chazon Mordechai, a mosad that has already seen one of its talmidim arrested earlier this week. According to reports, family members opened the door, after which officers entered the home and conducted what was described as a forceful and aggressive search.

A turning point came when the student’s mother managed to contact the Tzeva Shachor alert system, a network that assists yeshiva bochurim. Upon noticing the phone call, the commanding officer reportedly ordered his forces to withdraw immediately. The family was left shaken by the incident, but the student was not arrested.

Additional attempts were made elsewhere across the country.

In Tel Aviv, the operation focused on the residence of a student from Yeshivas Kiryat Malachi, who had previously been detained by authorities. When forces arrived, however, the student was not present, and officers left the scene without making an arrest.

At the same time, in the southern city of Dimona, military police raided the home of a married yeshiva student affiliated with the Gerer chassidus. In that case as well, a rapid alert through the Tzeva Shachor system led to members of the public arriving at the scene, prompting police to withdraw without detaining the suspect.

The overnight activity follows a series of recent arrests involving yeshiva students.

Last Sunday, a yeshiva student in Herzliya was reportedly taken into custody after receiving a phone call telling him a package was waiting outside his yeshiva. When he went to retrieve it, he encountered military police officers who arrested him and transported him to the Tel Hashomer base.

In another case, a yeshiva student was handed over to military police after being detained by Israeli police at a gas station near Ashdod.

{Matzav.com}

The IDF announced that it carried out a strike last Wednesday that killed Ibrahim Abu Tzakar, identifying him as a Hamas operative who posed as a paramedic while orchestrating multiple attacks against Israeli civilians and IDF soldiers.

According to findings based on intelligence assessments, the military said Abu Tzakar had crossed into Israeli territory during the October 7 massacre and took part in the kidnapping of Mia Schem from the Mefalsim area.

Schem had been seized on October 7 after attending the Nova music festival near Kibbutz Re’im and was later freed in November 2023 as part of a hostage release deal.

The IDF added that forces under the Southern Command remain positioned in line with the ceasefire arrangements and will persist in acting against any immediate dangers to both Israeli civilians and military personnel.

{Matzav.com}

Despite heavy restrictions on access to Mount Meron due to the security situation in northern Israel, Rav Tzvi Meir Zilberberg traveled to the site for Lag BaOmer together with a group of followers, enduring an eight-hour journey marked by roadblocks and significant delays.

Rav Zilberberg, head of the Nachalas Yaakov chaburah, maintained his longstanding custom of attending the hilula of Rav Shimon bar Yochai. After lighting a bonfire in Yerushalayim, he set out with his chassidim by bus, hoping to arrive in time for the conclusion of Lag BaOmer so that he could immerse in a mobile mikveh prepared for him, as he does each year.

However, what was expected to be a routine trip turned into a prolonged and exhausting journey. The group encountered heavy traffic and numerous checkpoints along the way, significantly delaying their arrival.

Instead of reaching Meron in the early evening as planned, they arrived only around midnight after approximately eight hours on the road. The bonfire lighting began much later than scheduled—around midnight rather than the originally planned 8:00 p.m.

Despite the difficulties, fatigue, and setbacks, participants described an atmosphere of joy and spiritual elevation throughout the trip. Rav Zilberberg, as is his custom, offered words of encouragement and led singing along the way, while his followers viewed the challenging journey as a meaningful act of dedication and a privilege to reach the gravesite of Rabbi Shimon bar Yochai, even under such circumstances.

{Matzav.com}

Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir is calling on chareidi lawmakers to push forward immediately with the draft law, arguing that concerns over a likely High Court rejection should not stop the legislative effort.

Addressing the issue, Ben Gvir said that, as with previous legislation such as the death penalty law for terrorists, the government should proceed regardless of expected judicial intervention. “They asked me why I passed the death penalty law for terrorists if the High Court will strike it down. I said I do my part and we need to leave something to Hakadosh Boruch Hu.“

Speaking on Kol Chai radio’s “Central Edition,” Ben Gvir argued that the root solution to the sector’s challenges—from daycare funding to military conscription—lies in reforming the judicial system. He directed a message to Knesset members from Shas and United Torah Judaism, saying, “We must insist on judicial reform. It cannot be that they always go after the good and harm chareidi children and women. It is possible, and it is right.”

Ben Gvir also sharply criticized Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara and opposed the idea that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might pursue mediation in his legal cases. “This is a big mistake, she is not someone you can work with in cooperation,” he said.

He further revealed that he had previously urged Netanyahu to dismiss the attorney general early on. “Two and a half years ago I told him, let’s send her home. He told me I’m a young minister and don’t understand how things work, and today he openly admits that I was right. She is a dismissed and fired adviser who cannot continue in her role.”

{Matzav.com}

Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir revealed his personal phone number during a live broadcast, urging the public to send him documentation of police conduct—both positive and negative—during the Lag BaOmer events in Meron.

Speaking Wednesday evening on Kol Chai radio, Ben Gvir also addressed reports of a developing agreement between the United States and Iran, voicing firm opposition. He said Israel cannot accept a nuclear Iran and warned that the regime in Tehran cannot be trusted to uphold any agreement. While expressing confidence in President Donald Trump and his intentions toward Israel, Ben Gvir cautioned against what he described as naivety in dealing with a country seeking nuclear capabilities to destroy Israel.

Discussing broader security challenges, Ben Gvir said Israel must address threats from multiple fronts simultaneously, including Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran. “We cannot leave Hezbollah with weapons, we cannot leave Hamas in Gaza, and we cannot leave a nuclear Iran,” he declared. He praised Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu for leading operations targeting senior terror figures, including Sinwar, Nasrallah, and Khamenei, but stressed that the mission is not yet complete and that Israel has the capability to achieve a decisive outcome.

Turning to criticism of police conduct at Mount Meron during Lag BaOmer, Ben Gvir rejected claims of excessive force against chareidi participants. He said he has received hundreds of messages from citizens praising officers for their restraint and respectful behavior, contrasting this year’s events with past incidents that involved violence and injuries. He emphasized that there is a clear policy to treat the chareidi public as “brothers” and noted that officers underwent mental preparation to avoid offending sensitivities or the sanctity of the site.

Regarding restrictions on access to Meron, Ben Gvir explained that the decision was made by the Home Front Command out of concern for public safety. He said officials were presented with severe scenarios involving rocket or drone strikes hitting dense crowds, which could have resulted in mass casualties due to insufficient protected areas. “The decision was made to protect the public. Heaven forbid a missile had fallen—would we be going from family to family in mourning?” he said. Addressing questions about why other large events were allowed to proceed, he said security officials had provided explanations, noting that “there is a difference between Sammy Ofer Stadium and Mount Meron.”

On the issue of the draft law, Ben Gvir called for advancing legislation even if it faces likely challenges in the High Court. He urged chareidi parties to push for judicial reform, arguing that the court unfairly targets the chareidi community and harms women and children in matters such as daycare funding.

In closing, Ben Gvir addressed the possibility of criminal mediation in the cases involving the prime minister, calling it a mistake. He sharply criticized Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, referring to her as “a dismissed and fired adviser” and asserting that it is not possible to work with her in cooperation or engage in good-faith mediation.

In an unusual move, Ben Gvir publicly shared his personal phone number and invited citizens to send him footage documenting police behavior, both favorable and unfavorable, during the Meron events.

{Matzav.com}