A new poll released Monday revealed a dramatic shift in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, with Zohran Mamdani pulling ahead of Andrew Cuomo in a ranked choice scenario—marking a surprising turn in the race.
According to the Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey, Cuomo initially holds a narrow lead in the hypothetical first round, drawing 35% support among likely Democratic voters. Mamdani follows closely at 32%, while city Comptroller Brad Lander garners 13%. Speaker Adrienne Adams comes in at 8%, Scott Stringer at 3%, and another 5% is divided among Zellnor Myrie, Whitney Tilson, Jessica Ramos, and Michael Blake. Four percent of voters remain undecided.
Since no candidate reaches the 50% threshold needed for an outright win, the ranked choice voting system would come into play. Under this method, voters’ subsequent preferences are factored in as lower-polling candidates are eliminated, potentially reshaping the outcome with each round.
In the simulated ranked choice tally, Mamdani overtakes Cuomo in the eighth round, reaching 51.8% to Cuomo’s 48.2%.
“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
“In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”
In Emerson’s previous poll last month, Cuomo had a 12-point advantage in the first round and held onto a lead of 8 percentage points—54% to 46%—in the tenth and final round.
Mamdani’s rise appears closely tied to Lander’s voter base, who overwhelmingly favored the Queens assemblyman once Lander was eliminated.
At round seven of the ranking process, Cuomo still leads slightly—40.5% to 39.4%—when Lander exits the race with 20% of the vote. But many of Lander’s supporters then shift to Mamdani, giving him a 3.6-point edge in the following round.
Lander, who has publicly backed Mamdani as his alternate choice, has helped consolidate progressive support. The Working Families Party also urged its voters not to rank Cuomo at all.
Additional polling, including a survey conducted by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion last week, still shows Cuomo in front—but Mamdani gaining steadily.
Emerson also asked voters whether they had already voted early or planned to vote on primary day.
Among early voters, Mamdani holds a solid 41% to 31% lead over Cuomo.
Among those waiting until Tuesday, Cuomo leads 36% to 31%.
Voter preferences diverge significantly across demographics.
Mamdani holds a two-to-one advantage among Democrats under 50. On the other hand, Cuomo wins handily among voters aged 50 to 59 with a 63% to 37% split, and he carries the over-60 demographic by a margin of 56% to 44%.
Black voters favor Cuomo 62% to 38%, while Hispanic voters prefer him 60% to 40%.
White voters, however, back Mamdani 61% to 39%, and Asian voters support him by an overwhelming margin of 79% to 21%. Mamdani, who was born in Uganda, is of Indian-American and South Asian heritage.
When sorted by education, Cuomo leads among those without a four-year college degree, 61% to 39%. In contrast, Mamdani leads among voters with college degrees, 62% to 38%.
Men favor Mamdani by a margin of 56% to 44%, while women lean slightly toward Cuomo, 52% to 48%.
The poll, which surveyed 729 likely Democratic voters, has a margin of error of ±3.6%, indicating the race could still go either way.
Emerson College conducted the poll using a combination of SMS text messages, landline robocalls, and an online voter panel.
In the final Emerson poll before the 2021 Democratic mayoral primary, Eric Adams was shown narrowly ahead of Kathryn Garcia—52% to 48%. Adams ultimately won that contest by less than one percentage point.
Cuomo’s campaign swiftly dismissed the new Emerson numbers.
“This is an outlier: Every other credible poll in this election — including two released last week — has shown Governor Cuomo with a double digit lead, which is exactly where this election will end tomorrow,” said Cuomo campaign spokesman Rich Azzopardi.
“Between now and then we will continue to fight for every vote like he will fight for every New Yorker as Mayor.”
In parallel, Fix The City, a pro-Cuomo Super PAC, released its own poll showing a completely different result. That survey had Cuomo defeating Mamdani handily in the seventh round of ranked choice voting—winning 52% of the vote, with Mamdani and Adrienne Adams earning 28% and 20%, respectively.
{Matzav.com}
