Amid Budget Battles and Draft Disputes, Amit Segal Reveals Netanyahu’s Election Timeline
Political commentator Amit Segal revealed in his weekly Yisroel Hayom column that senior coalition figures believe the budget will ultimately pass — but the controversial draft law for yeshiva students will not. According to Segal, the Knesset is expected to nearly complete its term despite internal rifts, including the recent “sovereignty rebellion,” which he attributes more to Betzalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s frustration over the end of the war than to election calculations.
Segal wrote that Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu’s strategy remains unchanged: to prolong the government’s tenure as much as possible. The date currently under discussion within the Prime Minister’s Office is September 8, 2026 — just days before Rosh Hashanah 5787. A second, earlier possibility being considered is June 30, 2026, the last day of the school year.
For that plan to work, however, the coalition must first pass the upcoming state budget — a process already underway. That, Segal noted, depends heavily on the support of the chareidi parties.
Within United Torah Judaism, he said, there is a widespread assumption that they are heading for a stint in the opposition following the next elections. Consequently, their main objective now is to ensure passage of a long-term budget lasting through 2027, which would include compensations for the budget cuts ordered by the High Court and the attorney general.
Segal explained that the chareidim see this as preferable to risking a future budget drafted by opposition figures such as Avigdor Lieberman, Yair Lapid, or Naftali Bennett. Shas, he added, shares the same motivation — to remain in power for as long as possible and deliver financial relief to its constituents before facing potentially unfavorable election results.
Regarding the draft law, Segal reported that most chareidi lawmakers believe it has virtually no chance of passing in an election year. The biggest hurdle, he said, is the position of the legal advisor to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, who doubts the law could withstand judicial review by the High Court.
The chareidi parties, on the other hand, are confident that the Knesset’s legal adviser herself would defend the law, but they remain divided on whether to push it forward or to drop it altogether — fearing that if it fails, all that will remain is the weakening of rabbinic opposition to chareidi enlistment.
Segal concluded that a new political bargain may soon emerge: advancing the state budget instead of the draft bill. “Netanyahu will gain an opportunity to help the public during an election year through measures such as lowering income tax brackets,” he wrote. “The coalition will avoid being tainted by a highly unpopular conscription law, and the months leading up to the elections could be used to secure diplomatic achievements — including normalization with Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and even Syria. The chareidim won’t get a draft law, but at least they’ll get funding.”
{Matzav.com}

